\u3000\u3000 Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co.Ltd(002408) (002408)
Event: on January 21, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company and RMB 2.39-2.56 billion will be realized in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 145% to 162%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 2.39-2.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 145% – 162%; The basic earnings per share was 0.84-0.90 yuan / share, with a year-on-year increase of 0.44-0.50 shares / yuan.
Benefiting from the launch of new production capacity and the rise of product prices, the annual profit increased sharply in 2021. Throughout the year, the company’s high performance growth is mainly due to: (1) the release of new production capacity and the thickening of the company’s profit: the company’s 200000 tons of nitrile latex was put into operation in early 2021, and the 200000 tons of MMA unit was put into operation in September 2020 and March 2021 respectively. (2) Price rise of main products maleic anhydride and methyl ethyl ketone: in 2021, the average market price of maleic anhydride in Shandong was 11095.6 yuan / ton, an increase of 68.7% over 2020, and the average ex factory price of Shandong Qixiang (South China) was 9485.0 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.0% over 2020. In addition, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is about 228-394 million yuan, down 43.3% – 67.2% month on month, and the performance is under pressure in the short term.
C4 industrial chain: consolidate the leading position of methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride, and constantly improve the layout of C4 industrial chain. Consolidate the leading position of methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride. Up to now, the company has a production capacity of 180000 tons of methyl ethyl ketone, accounting for about 50% of China’s production and marketing share; It has 200000 tons of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride plant, which is the largest in the world; Compared with other small-scale manufacturers, the company has scale advantages and strong bargaining power. Meanwhile, in order to consolidate its leading position, the company is building 200000 t / a maleic anhydride and expanding 80000 t methyl ethyl ketone production capacity to meet the growing demand of downstream. Continuously extend the C4 industrial chain and improve the anti risk ability: MMA: the 200000 t / a MMA project of the company has been put into operation, and the PMMA project is also under construction. After being put into operation, the company will complete the formation of an integrated and complete industrial chain of “isobutene MMA PMMA”. Nitrile latex: the company has put into production 200000 tons of nitrile latex in January 2021, which is the largest unit in China. Isononanol: the company plans to invest in the 200000 t / a isononanol project. Its downstream product is DINP, which is mainly used as plastic plasticizer, and the potential market demand reaches millions of tons. Nylon 66: together with China Tianchen, the company initiated the establishment of Tianchen Qixiang new material company and invested in the construction of nylon 66 new material industry base with an annual output of 1 million tons.
C3 industrial chain: layout the “propane propylene propylene oxide” industrial chain and add new profit points. The company actively introduced advanced technology and invested in the construction of 700000 T / a propane dehydrogenation project and 300000 t / a propylene oxide project. Up to now, C3 industrial chain project has entered the construction phase and is expected to be put into operation in 2022. We believe that through the layout of C3 industrial chain, the company is expected to add new profit growth points and build a comprehensive chemical platform.
Investment suggestion: considering the price trend of the company’s products and the rhythm of capacity release, we adjust the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 2.47/3.01/3.95 billion, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on January 21, 2022 is 11 / 9 / 7 times. Considering the continuous growth of the company’s performance due to the continuous launch of new production capacity in the next few years, the “recommended” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Risk of impact of epidemic disturbance on downstream demand; The risk of slow delivery of new capacity.
