\u3000\u3000 Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) (300759)
The company issued a performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the operating revenue will reach 7.341 billion yuan to 7.495 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 43% – 46%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.583 billion yuan to 1.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35% – 45%; The net profit after non deduction from the parent company was 1.281 billion yuan to 1.361 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60% – 70%; After adjustment, the net profit attributable to the parent company of non IFRS was 1.394 billion yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31% – 41%.
Revenue growth is strong, and the mature sector continues to make efforts. The revenue growth in 2021 is strong. In the fourth quarter, the revenue is expected to increase by 31.8% – 41.7% year-on-year in a single quarter, and continue to maintain quarter on quarter growth. It is expected that the revenue of laboratory services and CMC services in mature sectors will continue to grow rapidly. While the revenue of the company’s mature business segment increases, it is expected to gradually improve the economies of scale and operation efficiency, and the profitability of the segment will continue to improve. In addition, the company’s revenue is mainly denominated in US dollars. Considering the negative impact on the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company (the average exchange rate of US dollars to RMB in 2021 decreased significantly by about 6.5% compared with the previous year), the company should actually achieve faster revenue and profit growth.
The new business is rapidly arranged, and the profitability is expected to be improved. In 2021, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company and adjusted non IFRS net profit attributable to parent company were lower than the growth of revenue. We believe that due to the rapid layout and development of new businesses such as macromolecular and cell gene therapy, the relatively low gross profit margin in the investment period and the negative impact of exchange rate changes. In the first three quarters, the company’s revenue from macromolecular and cellular gene therapy services has reached more than 100 million yuan. We expect to maintain a rapid growth momentum throughout the year and are optimistic about the synchronous improvement of long-term performance and profitability of new business segments.
Profit forecast and rating: we are optimistic that the company will continue to make efforts in accelerating the construction of new production capacity of CMC and the acquisition and integration of overseas targets related to macromolecular and cell gene therapy, realize intensive cultivation of mature business segments, quickly broaden the service boundary, and quickly move forward to a global leader in drug R & D services with multiple therapies. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.64 billion yuan, 2.17 billion yuan and 2.89 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 40.0%, 32.5% and 32.8%; The corresponding PE is 60 times, 45 times and 34 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the global epidemic continues to affect the business risk, the risk of declining demand for pharmaceutical R & D services, the risk of intensified market competition, the risk of loss of core technicians and the risk of exchange rate changes.
