\u3000\u3000 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) (002120)
Event: according to the data released by the company in December, the express business volume was 1.836 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.16%, the express revenue was 4.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.74%, and the single ticket revenue was 2.35 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.17%. In 2021, the company completed a total of 18.402 billion business pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 29.76%. The revenue of express service was 39.629 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.05%, and the single ticket revenue was 2.15 yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.40%, which was significantly narrowed.
Business volume increased by 22% year-on-year, leading the industry: the company completed 1.836 billion business in December, with a year-on-year increase of 22.16%, far exceeding the average growth rate of the industry (10.7%), with a market share of 17.9%, a month on month increase of 1.3pct and a year-on-year increase of 1.26pct. Against the background of the slowdown in the growth of social finance and the industry in December, the company consolidated network services through strategies such as service stratification and customer stratification, and increased resource collaboration, end-of-end collaboration and technical support to improve the comprehensive service capacity of customers. After the promotion of e-commerce, the company still maintained a growth rate of more than 20%. On the whole, the annual business volume of 2021 was 18.402 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29.76%. Among them, the business volume of 21q4 was 5.435 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.71%. By month, the year-on-year growth rate of business volume in October, November and December was 21.10%, 19.03% and 22.16%, with a steady growth rate. With the rise of new e-commerce models such as live delivery and community group purchase and the opening of sinking market, the online consumption penetration rate is expected to continue to improve. The company accelerates the layout of rural express delivery and the business of docking and more returns and exchanges, and the business volume is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.
The unit price increased slightly year-on-year and decreased slightly month on month: the unit price of the company in December was 2.35 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.17% and a month on month decrease of 1.04%, mainly due to the good implementation of the price increase strategy in peak season under the strict supervision of policies. The slight drop in price after the promotion of “double 11” e-commerce is a normal adjustment. From the monthly data, the single ticket income in October, November and December was 2.17 yuan, 2.38 yuan and 2.35 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 0.58%, + 1.40% and + 2.17%, and the unit price continued to improve. Overall, in 2021, the decline of single ticket income of Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 gradually narrowed and became positive, which were – 19%, – 7.14%, – 0.84% and + 1.88% respectively. With the frequent introduction of regulatory policies, increasing the income of end couriers and controlling vicious competition, the price war is expected to slow down. At the same time, the peak of the company’s capital expenditure may come to an end. Through self operated transshipment hubs, improving the goods structure, implementing franchisees’ self running and other measures, the operation efficiency and service quality will be continuously improved, and the operation cost and whole process timeliness are expected to be reduced. The company is expected to rely on refined cost control and scale advantages, and the single ticket profit is expected to rebound significantly, and the performance is expected to improve.
Profit forecast: under the stricter policy, the price competition in the industry slows down, and the single ticket income continues to improve, which is expected to bring performance repair to the company. It is estimated that the net profit of 21 and 22 years will be 1.44 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan, yoy + 2.6% and + 36%, EPS is 0.50 yuan and 0.67 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current a share price is 42 and 31 respectively. Investment suggestions for interval operation are given.
Risk tips: deteriorating price competition, loose policy supervision, reduced demand for online shopping, etc.
