\u3000\u3000 Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792)
Events
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) release the annual performance forecast for 2021: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be 3.88-4.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90.24% – 109.85%. The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses is expected to be 3.83 billion yuan to 4.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 78.25% – 96.87%. The estimated basic earnings per share is 0.71 yuan / share -0.79 yuan / share.
Key investment points
The performance was lower than the market expectation, and the Q4 performance fell month on month
The annual net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.88-4.28 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan in the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 90.2% – 109.8%, of which the net profit in the fourth quarter is expected to be 165-565 million yuan, a month on month decline. The profit in the fourth quarter was lower than expected, mainly because the return income of the subsidiary Salt Lake energy decreased, and the company’s annual profit was 357 million yuan. Meanwhile, Salt Lake energy paid 195 million yuan for ecological environment restoration and treatment and ecological environment damage compensation, reducing the company’s annual profit by 111 million yuan. In addition, the sales volume of lithium carbonate of Lanke lithium, a subsidiary, was 4200 tons in the fourth quarter, down 44.4% month on month, which was also one of the reasons why the performance in the fourth quarter was lower than expected.
The leading position of potash fertilizer is stable, and the price continues to rise
The company’s potash fertilizer (potassium chloride) production capacity is 5 million tons, accounting for about 58% of China’s potash fertilizer production capacity. In 2021, the company produced about 5.02 million tons of potassium chloride, sold about 4.65 million tons of potassium chloride, and accumulated 370000 tons of potassium chloride in the year. According to the quotation of Longzhong chemical, the potassium chloride (60% powder) in Qinghai reached 3490 yuan / ton, 27% higher than the average price in 2021. It is expected that the market supply of potassium chloride will not increase significantly in the short term, while the downstream agricultural demand is relatively rigid, and the landscape of potassium chloride will continue. It is expected that the company will release inventory and increase sales in 2022, and the potassium chloride sector of the company will continue to benefit.
Lithium carbonate is further increased, and the superimposed prosperity continues
Lanke lithium, a subsidiary, added 20000 tons of lithium carbonate capacity in 2021 and continued to climb production. It will reach a full capacity of 30000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2022. In 2021, the company produced about 22700 tons of lithium carbonate, sold about 19200 tons of lithium carbonate, and accumulated about 3500 tons of lithium carbonate in the year. According to the quotation of Antaike, the current quotation of industrial lithium carbonate in China reaches 332500 yuan / ton, 188% higher than the average price in 2021. It is expected that the production and sales of lithium carbonate of the company will continue to grow year-on-year in 2022. At the same time, under the background of tight supply and demand of lithium salt, the price of lithium carbonate will continue to be high, and the lithium salt sector of the company will continue to maintain a high boom in 2022.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.102 billion yuan, 7.752 billion yuan and 8.588 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.76, 1.43 and 1.58 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 36, 19 and 17 times respectively, and the “recommended” investment rating will be given.
Risk tips
The production of overseas lithium salt lakes and lithium mines exceeded expectations, the demand for lithium batteries was lower than expected, and the price of potassium chloride fell.
