\u3000\u3000 Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486)
Event: the company issued a performance forecast. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 2-2.05 billion yuan, 211.9% – 219.7% year-on-year; Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 670-720 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.2% – 84%. The net profit deducted from non profits was 1.85-1.9 billion yuan, 248.4% – 257.8% year-on-year; Among them, the non net profit deducted in 21q4 was 630-680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.2% – 86.8%. The performance is in line with expectations.
The business of floor sweeper + floor washer increased, and the scale of floor sweeper was slightly higher than that of handheld
The company’s double 11 Omni channel turnover exceeded 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107%, of which Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) turnover was 1.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55%, and Tianke turnover was 1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 241%. The sales of China’s Q4 major promotion nodes are excellent. According to the prediction of our model, the annual revenue of the company is expected to be 13-13.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year 80% – 82%; Among them, Q4 revenue was about 4.8-5 billion yuan, 54% – 60% year-on-year. In terms of business, we expect the revenue of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) in the 21st year to be about 7 billion yuan, that of Tianke to be about 5 billion yuan and that of ODM to be about 1 billion yuan. Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and Tianke’s revenue account for about 50% / 40% respectively. We expect the annual sales volume of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) to be 3.5-3.6 million units and the sales volume of Tianke to be 250-300W units.
21q4 launched high-end new products, contributing to the annual performance in line with expectations
From the perspective of profit level, the company launched the new X1 Series in 21q4, of which Omni and turbo priced 5999 and 4999 yuan, which was much higher than the average price of the company. The new products are added with accessories modules such as dust collection and automatic water injection, and the cost should rise. Therefore, we expect the gross profit margin of 21q4 to be basically stable compared with 21q3.
China’s market share has increased steadily, and the layout of products outside China is comprehensive
According to the data of Aowei cloud, the market share of online sales of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) cleaning appliances in 21 years was 19.54%, year-on-year + 1.96%, and the market share of sales was 8.04%, year-on-year -0.48%. The average price was 2756 yuan, year-on-year + 914 yuan. The market share of online sales of floor sweepers was 44.98%, year-on-year + 4.08%, and the market share of sales was 38.66%, year-on-year + 1.35%. The average price was 2806 yuan, year-on-year + 966 yuan. The market share of the company has increased steadily, ranking the leading position in China’s industry. In 22, the company’s high-end X1 Omni was released at CES exhibition. The new product was priced at US $1549, which complemented the overseas high-end product line, and the overseas volume and price are expected to rise together. From the perspective of the industry, we believe that in 22 years, China’s floor sweeper market will change from technical upgrading to large-scale growth, and the industry penetration is expected to further improve.
Investment suggestions:
In terms of industry, China’s market will change from technological upgrading to large-scale growth in 22 years, and the industry penetration is expected to further improve. The overseas market is in the stage of upgrading from random products to planned products, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. In terms of the company, the company is a leader in China’s industry, with a steady increase in market share. The overseas market complements the high-end price band, and is expected to achieve a simultaneous rise in volume and price. According to the company’s performance forecast and the company’s previous equity incentive objectives, we will not adjust the growth rate in 22-23 years. It is estimated that the net profit in 21-23 years will be RMB 2.02, 28.2 and 37 (the previous value is RMB 2.15, 28.4 and 37) billion, and the corresponding dynamic valuation will be 38.69x, 27.78x and 21x respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of new products are less than expected, the market penetration growth of clean appliances is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the performance forecast is the preliminary calculation result. Please refer to the annual report.
