\u3000\u3000 Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) (000738)
Key investment points
Aero engine control system leader, performance accelerated upward; Increasing scientific research and production capacity in 2021
1) the company's main businesses include engine control system and derivatives, international cooperation business, non aviation products and others, of which the revenue of engine control system and derivatives accounts for about 85%.
2) the compound growth rate of the company's revenue in recent three years is 11%. Under the effect of scale, the gross profit rate and net profit rate also show an upward trend, and the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is 19%. Both revenue and net profit show an accelerated upward trend.
3) in 2021, the company raised 4.3 billion (fixed increase price: 25.35 yuan / share) to improve the scientific research and production capacity of its subsidiaries and supplement working capital, which will support the further improvement of the company's business scale in the future.
The control system is in the middle of the aeroengine industry chain, and the value of the company's products accounts for about 11% of the whole machine
1) FADEC system is the current mainstream aeroengine control system, which is composed of controller (output control command), mechanical hydraulic actuator (realize control command), sensor (feel engine working state), etc.
2) the company's products are mainly mechanical hydraulic actuators, which cooperate and complement each other with the electronic controllers of China Aviation Engine Control Institute to form a complete engine control system.
3) the average value of the control system in the engine is 18%, and it is estimated that the company's products account for about 11% of the value of the whole engine.
It is estimated that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the compound growth rate of China's aviation engine will be nearly 20%, and the growth of the company will surpass the industry
1) "military aircraft + civil aircraft + maintenance + navigation", the aeroengine industry has a long slope and thick snow, and the compound growth rate is expected to be close to 20% during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, the company attaches importance to R & D and expands to non aviation fields such as missiles and combat vehicles with profound technology, with great flexibility in the medium and short term.
2) labor, depreciation and other fixed costs account for nearly 60% of the company's operating costs. With the rapid expansion of business scale, the scale effect is expected to continue to appear.
3) the reform of state-owned enterprises has been continuously promoted, which requires "improving the efficiency of state-owned capital". The State encourages the implementation of medium and long-term incentives (the equity incentive coverage of listed companies under the military industry group has reached 37%), the asset securitization rate of the military industry group has been continuously improved, and the company is expected to benefit.
Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) : it is estimated that the compound growth rate of net profit in the next three years will exceed 30%, giving a "buy" rating
1) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 480 / 630 / 830 million, with a year-on-year increase of 30% / 32% / 31% and a compound growth rate of 31%. EPS is RMB 0.36/0.48/0.63, PE is 67 / 51 / 39 times, and the PE valuation center of the company in recent 10 years is 76 times.
2) as the core supplier of China's Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) system, the company is equipped with almost all domestic engines, with high scarcity and high performance flexibility. Refer to the historical valuation level, cover it for the first time, and give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the delivery of military orders is less than expected; 2) The progress of relevant reform measures was less than expected.
