The Shanghai stock index opened low last week and failed to recover after opening low this week. How may it develop in the next two weeks? Let's first look at the weekly chart (see Figure 1):
From the weekly chart, we can see that when the Shanghai index fell to the key support point F5 = 3470 on November 12, it went out of the bulls and continued to rise after swallowing the reverse K-line combination; In the week of December 17, after rushing to the concentrated area of imperial and French pressure points that suppressed it twice, cop = 3704 ~ XOP = 3739, it closed negative for the third time. Two weeks ago, it went out of the short position and swallowed up the reverse K-line combination, making the short-term direction downward; Last week, it fell as scheduled, pulled out a negative line and closed below the MACD forecast index line and 25x5 moving average; This week, a hammerhead K line was pulled out, and the short position pattern was further strengthened.
The following analysis in the period of December 24 in this column is still valid: "once the MACD prediction index line is broken, the market probability will fall to F5 = 3470, or even fall back to the lower line of F3 = 3317 in the whole range". Let's take a look at the daily chart (see Figure 2):
From the daily chart, we can see that the market broke the previous pullback low of 3589 two weeks ago and entered a downward trend; It rebounded slightly last week, but failed to stand at F5 = 3652, and then continued to fall as scheduled. The market first fell below the first support point F5 = 3548 predicted in the previous period, and fell to the second support point XOP = 3510 predicted in the previous period at the close of this Friday. The first line of XOP = 3510 is a strong support area, and the market may rebound here next week. However, if this rebound cannot be confirmed to break through the superimposed pressure area F5 = 3601 / F3 = 3592, the market will continue to fall to the front line of F5 = 3470 predicted in the previous column. Let's take a look at the hourly chart (Figure 3):
From the timeline chart, we can see that the market rebounded to cop = 3596 on Friday two weeks ago. It ended its rebound when it was blocked and closed below the MACD prediction index line. The market fell to the third support point F5 = 3548 as scheduled last week, without any support. It didn't get support until it fell to XOP = 3518 and began to rebound. The market rebounded to the pressure point this week and fell again after F3 = 3579. It closed again at XOP = 3518 on Friday. The market is currently in a strong downward trend. It will continue to fall in the next two weeks unless it goes out of the long reversal pattern and breaks through F5 = 3601.
Generally speaking, the Shanghai Composite Index rushed to the imperial French point XOP = 3739 after the Spring Festival holiday and retreated sharply in case of resistance; In the week of March 12, there was one support at the front line of F3 = 3317 on the weekly line; It was supported for the second time in the week of July 30; In the week of September 17, it rebounded to the front high 3731 line and pulled out a negative line when it was blocked, making it present a pattern of consolidation and shock between F3 = 3317 and XOP = 3739; After falling to the key support point F5 = 3470 in the week of November 12, it went out of the bull market and reversed the K-line combination to recover; In the week of December 17, it rushed to the upper edge of the consolidation area of the weekly range and pulled out an inverted negative line for the third time. After five weeks, it fluctuated and fell, falling behind the MACD prediction index line. According to the analysis of December 24 in this column, "it may fall to the lower edge of the current consolidation range F3 = 3317 line again".
