general trend study and judgment: through the darkness before dawn. since the beginning of 2022, the Chinese market has fluctuated downward, and the core reason is the negative disturbance at the denominator end. On the one hand, the expectation of overseas interest rate increase and table contraction was advanced, and the real interest rate rose rapidly. The 10-year US bond interest rate once hit 1.88%, and the NASDAQ index fell sharply by 7.55% during the week. As the inflection point of global liquidity has arrived, it will bring marginal fluctuations to China's liquidity expectations from the perspective of asset allocation. On the other hand, China's real estate credit worries and covid-19 epidemic twists and turns suppress risk appetite. We believe that overseas, although high interest rates will negatively suppress the equity market, the rise of low US bond interest rates will not have a severe impact on the valuation of US stocks, and the resulting "US stocks → A shares" risk transmission is relatively limited. At the same time, China is still in the window period of monetary policy easing, and the central bank actively "moves forward". With the comprehensive reduction of reserve requirements in December and the reduction of MLF and LPR interest rates in January, the momentum of "steady growth" is further consolidated, and the negative expectations are accelerating to digest.
where is the calendar effect today? The scenery should be long and look at the quantity. from the past history, the A-share market often has a calendar effect such as "spring agitation", and the main driving factors can be attributed to the recovery of liquidity, the rise of risk appetite and the revision of profit expectation. At present, due to the intensive debt repayment of real estate enterprises and repeated epidemics, 2022q1 is a time window with concentrated negative factors and pessimistic expectations. We believe that the adjustment of the market has been gradually reflected. With the passage of time and the pricing of risks, we should pay attention to the upward correction of positive factors: 1) the probability of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in March has increased, and the signal transmission of "interest rate increase → table contraction" is far higher than the actual fluctuation, but the repair power of overseas economy, employment and so on is still positive; 2) The improvement of entity financing demand has not been verified, and the structural wide currency and total wide currency may go hand in hand; 3) The local two sessions have been held one after another, the demand for steady growth is strong, and the investment in infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to accelerate.
looking forward: from mid cap blue chip to market value. in 2021, the performance of individual stocks with large market value was not dominant, mainly due to the better performance of mid cap blue chips with profit elasticity under the environment of "downward profit (but still positive increase) + credit expansion + currency Widening". On the one hand, high profit growth has the advantage of scarcity. On the other hand, the wider credit currency environment benefits growth and profit growth. However, based on the present and from a longer perspective, the switching between growth and value style is penetrating and diverging from the industry level. Specifically, the growth difference between primary industries is converging rapidly. Compared with 2021, the growth rate of various industries is distributed in a narrower range, which means that it will be more difficult to find industries with obvious high prosperity advantages. At the same time, as the main line of steady growth emerges, the redistribution of profit structure and the repair of the middle and lower reaches will become an important clue for value promotion.
industry configuration: grasp the value in value. market value is relatively dominant, according to the order of steady growth, superimposed the pessimistic expectations of the correction range, recommended: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend performance support and negative expectations of the desalination of pig, household appliances, furniture and social service / tourism, Baijiu and other directions; 2) Infrastructure: improve infrastructure investment, help "revitalize infrastructure" exceed expectations in the future, and recommend building materials, construction, power operation and other directions; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
