This week, a shares, go tangled. In particular, the sharp correction of popular tracks has a great impact on market sentiment.
This week, market differences increased significantly, and A-Shares staged the ultimate market to reproduce the “28 differentiation”. The hot track and theme stocks that rose too much in the early stage continued to fall, while the weight sectors led by banks, securities companies and insurance repeatedly supported the market.
it is worth noting that the pattern of “foreign capital running into domestic capital” is staged again in the A-share market. This week, northbound funds bought net for five consecutive trading days, with a total net purchase amount of nearly 30 billion yuan. Northbound funds have always been called “smart money” by the market. Now, when the market is depressed, they frequently increase their positions, and the range is not small. What does this mean? How to operate in the future?
popular tracks fell sharply
This week, the profit-making effect of the A-share market was poor, with more than 3400 stocks floating green and only more than 1100 rising stocks. In terms of index, from Monday to Friday, the Shanghai index and Shenzhen Composite Index rose for two days and fell for three days, and the gem index rose for one day and fell for four days. In terms of price range, the Shanghai index rose slightly by 0.04%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.86% and the gem index fell 2.72%. Especially in the last four days, the gem fell by 4%, reaching a new low in nearly eight months.
Covid-19 detection sector became the “most beautiful boy” in the A-share market at the beginning of the year. However, the decline was the most severe this week, which put the greatest pressure on market sentiment. Specifically, in the five trading days of this week, the covid-19 detection index closed five negative lines, with a decline of 17.63% during the period.
Vaccines and prefabricated dishes also fell for four days, with a decline of 10% this week; The indexes of rare earth, mask and lithography machine all decreased by more than 8%; The indexes of salt lake lithium extraction and medical beauty decreased by nearly 7%, and the indexes of phosphorus chemical industry, rare earth and lithium ore also decreased by more than 5%.
in terms of individual stocks, among the top 10 list of A-share decline this week, covid-19 detection concept stocks accounted for 8; Among them, Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , Asahi biology, Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) , Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co.Ltd(688399) ranked first to seventh in the decline list, with a decline of 46.84%, 42.09%, 41.71%, 40.09%, 40.04%, 35.42% and 34.93% respectively.
Covid-19 detects that the decline of concept stocks is related to several factors. First, the increase in the early stage is too large. Taking Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) and Asahi biology as examples, these two stocks doubled in seven trading days and Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) rose more than 10 times in two months, resulting in huge risk of capital profit taking; Second, on the evening of January 20, five Chinese companies were authorized to copy the covid-19 oral drug of MSD for free, which means that the scope of oral drug distribution will be expanded and the expectation of covid-19 infection will be reduced.
substantial increase of northbound funds
It is worth noting that although the market index has corrected for several consecutive days, and peripheral stock markets such as US stocks have fallen one after another, foreign investors are buying without wavering. As of January 21st, the north capital has been on the 6 day of the A shares, the major financial and Baijiu sector is the main direction.
This week, northbound funds bought net for five consecutive trading days, and increased their buying efforts in the second half of the week. Specifically, from Monday to Friday, the net inflow of northbound funds was 1.707 billion yuan, 2.335 billion yuan, 3.821 billion yuan, 12.576 billion yuan and 8.758 billion yuan respectively; The total net purchase this week was 29.197 billion yuan, the best performance in a single week since December 10 last year.
On January 21, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) received net purchases of 1.198 billion yuan, 1.092 billion yuan and 970 million yuan from BEIXIANG respectively, occupying the top three in the purchase list on the same day; In addition, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) and China stock market news also bought 573 million yuan, 404 million yuan and 208 million yuan respectively. Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) were net sold by northbound funds of 500 million yuan, 393 million yuan and 131 million yuan respectively.
This week, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) became the most “favorite” object of foreign capital. The stock was net bought by North funds for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net purchase amount of nearly 4.8 billion yuan, ranking first in the buying list. Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) received net purchases of 2.358 billion yuan, 1.838 billion yuan, 1.261 billion yuan, 1.212 billion yuan and 1.202 billion yuan respectively, ranking second to sixth in the purchase list.
Judging from the stock price performance of the secondary market, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) rose for five consecutive days this week, with a cumulative increase of nearly 8%; Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rose in four of the past five days, with cumulative increases of 4.79%, 6.32% and 4.86% respectively this week.
banks, insurance, brokerages, Baijiu and other weight sectors have risen against the market. This week, the insurance and Baijiu index rose 3%, the banking index increased by 2.77%, and the stock index increased by 2.48%. The digital economy sector benefiting from the support of national policies also performed well, with the big data index rising by 9% this week and the financial technology index rising by more than 8%.
how to go in the future
for investors, this week’s market is extremely painful. What should we do later?
Debang Securities pointed out that the large net inflow of northward funds will often open a wave of rising market. When the large net inflow from northbound is pushed back for 10 trading days, the rising probability of major indexes is not significantly greater than 50%, but over time, the rising probability of major indexes can reach 60% or more in the range. Wandequan a has the highest rising probability of 80% when pushing back 50 trading days, with a high winning rate.
Guo Yiming, director of Jufeng investment consulting, believes that the overall decline of the market recently comes not only from the overall weakness of the peripheral market, but also from the internal position adjustment and stock exchange in the market. For example, under the acceleration of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and table contraction expectations, US stocks ushered in continuous adjustment, which had an emotional impact on the Chinese market and put pressure on growth stocks; On the other hand, since China’s steady growth policy, funds have also been changing positions and shares. Undervalued blue chips once became the favor of funds, while high overvalued varieties have been suppressed. Since the beginning of the year, they have fallen sharply, which has also inhibited the market.
Guo Yiming said that on the basis of reducing the reserve requirement in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered three important interest rates at the beginning of this year. So far, the cycle of monetary easing has begun. The stock market is a barometer of money. The monetary easing policy has been started, and the signal is also obvious. Therefore, there is no need to worry about liquidity in at least the first quarter, which will also support and boost the spring market to a certain extent. Under the medium-term positive trend, there is still a good allocation opportunity at present. It is recommended to continue to allocate around undervalued blue chips. At the same time, under the good prosperity, bargain hunting can also be considered for the sorted new energy, semiconductors and other varieties.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out that compared with the market dominated by the popular track last year, this year will be a market dominated by performance. Some undervalued blue chips will usher in better recovery opportunities, while poor performance stocks and theme stocks may fall significantly. It is suggested that investors seize the opportunities in the three directions of large consumption, new energy and technology Internet.
Dongguan Securities believes that the central bank recently increased capital investment, and the capital level remained stable and loose. In addition, it also released positive signals and successively lowered Omo, MLF and LPR interest rates, further reflecting the guidance of monetary policy to release liquidity, reduce capital costs and stabilize economic growth this year. Coupled with the acceleration of net capital inflow from the north, the market is expected to stabilize and rebound before the festival. It is recommended to hold shares for the festival, pay attention to the gains and losses of the annual line, sector rotation and holiday news, and pay attention to the opportunities in finance, steel, household appliances, food and beverage, building materials, building decoration and other industries.
