the market low in the first half of the year may have appeared. the market continued to adjust this week, especially after the implementation of monetary policy, the market reflected more concerns, and some investors turned pessimistic about the future market. From the recent signs of the market, we believe that the low point of the market in the first half of the year may have appeared. At the current point, investors can gradually turn optimistic about the market and actively layout the market in the first half of the year.
overseas pessimistic liquidity expectations are expected to be revised. from the perspective of overseas markets, US bonds peaked and fell this week, while the United States continued to adjust. The market trading logic has gradually shifted from panic about liquidity tightening to concern about corporate profits and economy. From a series of economic data released by the United States recently, the disturbance of the epidemic to the economy is gradually emerging, which is also the reality that Fed officials need to face at the interest rate meeting in January. We believe that the market will also make periodic corrections to the rhythm of the Fed's interest rate increase.
the recovery of market sentiment promotes the upward movement of the index center, with high certainty. from the perspective of market sentiment, the current heat has reached the absolute low level since 2019. From the perspective of transaction concentration, the gradual formation of transaction hotspots reflects the recovery of market transaction sentiment. From the perspective of seasonal factors, from 2012 to 2021, the average rise and fall of the Shanghai stock index in the 20 trading days after the Spring Festival was 2.48%, and the rise probability was 70%. The average daily trading volume and turnover rate of the market after the Spring Festival also increased significantly compared with that before the festival. In terms of style, the growth style is highly deterministic. In terms of industry, the post Festival textile and clothing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and TMT sectors are relatively dominant.
the window period of the annual report is approaching, and the growth sector with high performance is still worthy of attention. at present, the industries with the highest number of announcements are concentrated in the cycle and growth sectors. At the same time, the growth rate of predicted net profit of the corresponding sectors also shows a gradual downward trend from cycle and growth to consumption and finance. By comparing with wind's consistent expectations to judge the performance of the performance forecast, we believe that the following four directions will exceed expectations in the future: upstream resources, new energy, TMT and consumption. Among them, upstream resources focus on petroleum and petrochemical, basic chemical industry, coal, non-ferrous metals and steel; New energy pays attention to power equipment; TMT focuses on semiconductors, computers and communications; Consumers pay attention to food and beverage, household appliances, beauty care, medicine and biology.
four main lines layout the market in the first half of the year. with a number of recent US economic data falling short of expectations, US bond yields peaked and fell. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate increase is expected to be revised periodically after the interest rate meeting, while China's monetary policy continues to advance, the confirmation of the economic bottom by the economic and financial data after the festival, the performance of the growth sector in the annual report window, and the liquidity recovery caused by seasonal factors, The central uplink of the main index has high certainty. Grasp four main lines from the structure: first, with the gradual realization of the annual report performance, the growth sector is expected to become the phased main line of the market after the Spring Festival; Secondly, with the gradual recovery of market transactions and the expected warming of comprehensive registration system, the sector investment opportunities of securities companies deserve attention; Third, with the Winter Olympics approaching and the superimposed epidemic environment window period, the offline economy represented by catering tourism and commercial retail is expected to usher in repair; Finally, the recent eruption of Tonga volcano has raised concerns about global climate change. There is still great uncertainty in the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply in 2022, and the essential consumer goods represented by agriculture still deserve continuous attention. The theme focuses on food security, digital economy and metauniverse.
risk tips
Overseas epidemics exceeded expectations, Sino US trade frictions exceeded expectations, and the pace of policy promotion was lower than expected.
