At present, there are three factors that suppress market risk appetite: Fundamentals, incremental funds and the Fed's interest rate hike. In the process of communicating with investors from all sides this week, we found that the consensus on steady growth has been significantly strengthened, and the differences have been much weaker than before. However, concerns about incremental funding are growing. At the beginning of this year, the fund issuance was obviously cold, but at present, there is no obvious "redemption negative feedback" from public offering institutions. Taking active funds (common stock type + partial stock mixed type + flexible allocation type) as the sample and taking the fund establishment date as the caliber, it can be found that the issuance share of active funds has only been 37.147 billion since January this year, while the average monthly issuance share of active funds in 2021 was 113.357 billion. The cold at the beginning of the year of fund issuance and the weakening of the target of fund heavy positions form negative expectations for subsequent incremental funds.
At the same time, from the pricing theoretical model, the Fed's interest rate increase has a certain suppression on the growth sector. This week, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose to 1.9%. Since the beginning of the year, technology growth stocks represented by Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have fallen by more than 11%. For a shares, the decline of wind all a and CSI 300 in the world's major stock indexes in the same period was in the middle, and the pressure on the growth sector was relatively obvious. We believe that China has ample room for manoeuvre in its macro policies and can adhere to the principle of "focusing on me", and China's 10-year yield remains low at 2.71%; At the same time, at present, the northward capital has maintained a net inflow, with a total inflow of 29.197 billion yuan this week. From a comprehensive assessment, the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike expectation on A-Shares is secondary, so there is no need to worry too much. Objectively speaking, historically, there is no stable, clear and rigorous law on the impact of the Fed's interest rate increase or the rise of US bond interest rate on China's a shares.
For the high boom and high valuation track, combined with the fund annual report of 2021 (50% disclosure rate) that has been disclosed, our latest observations are as follows: 1. At present, Q4 public funds have some differentiation for the high boom and high valuation track, but there is no obvious position reduction; 2. Q4 institutional funds have enhanced the allocation of high prosperity track in the fields of automobile and consumer electronics, and the characteristics of diffusion towards intelligence are more obvious; 3. Q4 real estate chain (real estate, building materials, light industry, household appliances, etc.) has become the main destination of institutional capital diversion in the process of high and low valuation switching. Here, we emphasize once again that we are optimistic about the medium-term industrial trend of the high boom and high valuation track, but the investment opportunities will shift from most companies in most links of the industrial chain to a few companies in a few links in 2021. On the whole, the current market is still in the "bottom grinding period", and mobile warfare is still the best strategy. Mobile warfare is not guerrilla warfare. There are advances and retreats in the battle process. In order to destroy the enemy, retreating is also a tactic to further advance and destroy the enemy. This means that the advance and retreat of the current bottom grinding period are normal and should not be pessimistic. We should focus on the advantageous direction. The structural market will continue to expand, and finally realize the stock market from strategic stalemate to strategic attack. Therefore, we firmly believe that the current situation is "darkness before dawn" and "don't lose heart and don't be idle". In the game process of fundamental expectations under the steady growth policy, the market will eventually stand on the side of the policy, which determines that the current style will be further balanced. The recovery of market sentiment needs to wait for key signals such as clear policy expectations, improvement of incremental funds and stability of the external environment. The middle of February after the Spring Festival will be an important decision-making point, "setting the stage for value and singing for growth". This round of spring agitation is still worth looking forward to.
Before that, we maintained a high winning rate by looking for the judgment idea of elastic sector in the undervalued value, and the deviation between the increase income and the fundamentals will converge. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the varieties with higher than expected annual performance forecast: chemical industry (including traditional varieties +), nonferrous metals (non-metallic materials), transportation, building materials (glass fiber), power grid equipment (UHV), coal processing, electronics broker; On the theme, it is suggested to focus on the transformation of undervalued central enterprises + emerging industries. Greening, national security and high-end will be the main direction of the transformation of emerging industries of central enterprises. With green power as the core of greening, we can pay attention to the central enterprises that have defined the greening goal of the 14th five year plan and currently have considerable foundation and progress; In national security, network security has a large transformation space, focusing on the opportunities of central enterprises related to state-owned assets cloud and operating system; Focusing on the safety and completeness of the industrial chain, the high-end industry focuses on the security segments in high-end industries, such as central enterprises in the new material sector and high-end manufacturing related central enterprises that are laying out neck technology research.
Risk tip: the epidemic spread exceeded expectations, the policy was less than expected, the Sino US relations deteriorated again, and the overseas monetary policy changed
