Key recommended / benefited targets this week
(1) OEM leader: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) , beneficiary: virgin;
(2) sports shoes and clothing retailer leader: taobo;
(3) sports leaders: Anta sports, Li Ning, benefiting target: Tebu International;
(4) Leisure Faucet: Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) ;
(5) target of other sub blocks: Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) .
It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the leading sports clothing with high prosperity catalyzed by the Winter Olympics: as the Winter Olympics approaches, we observe that the official media and sports brands have increased publicity, and the discussion on the Winter Olympics topics on the social media platform has increased significantly, which is conducive to the improvement of the voice of leading sports brands. In addition, the current epidemic in Beijing comes from international mail and cold chain goods. We believe that the epidemic is still controllable and has a limited impact on the Winter Olympic Games.
The zero decline rate of clothing agencies in December was lower than that in August, and the improvement trend of international brand online data continued
(1) in the whole year, the number of clothing agencies increased by 13% at the same time. Affected by the epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate decreased slightly in December, but the degree of impact was less than that of the epidemic in August. The total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles in December was 148.72 billion yuan (- 2.3%), and the cumulative sales of the whole year was 1384.25 billion yuan (+ 12.7%). The decline in growth rate in December was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in many places on passenger flow and the lower than expected cold winter. From August to December 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of clothing retail sales was – 6.0% / – 4.8% / – 3.3% / – 0.5% / – 2.3% respectively. The impact of the epidemic in December was significantly less than that in August. It is expected that there are still sector opportunities under the catalysis of the normalization of epidemic prevention and the peak consumption season of Spring Festival and Lantern Festival. (2) Data of Alibaba platform sports shoes and clothing week: the sales of shoes and clothing Taobao + tmall of all sports brands in 2022w3 (2022.1.10-16) are: Li Ning 283 million yuan (+ 190.87%), Anta 160 million yuan (+ 137.39%), FILA 1.5% RMB 7.1 billion (+ 218.79%), special step RMB 56 million (+ 63.5%), nike3.0% RMB 5.6 billion (+ 45.13%), Adidas 174 million (- 54.67%), NewBalance 0.5% RMB 7.6 billion (+ 139.1%) and RMB 50 million (+ 125.14%) of SKECH. The offline impact of the epidemic has led to the high growth of China’s leading brands online, and the weekly growth rate of international brands has increased significantly month on month.
This week focuses on company updates
(1) Anta Sports: it is estimated that the revenue will increase by 35% and the net profit will increase by 45% in 2021 (35% after excluding Amer). Anta: it is expected that the annual flow will increase by 25-30%, including 40% + on the line, 10-20% on the middle section in 2021q4, 10-20% on the low section / 25-30% on the big goods / children. According to different channels, Q4 will increase by 30-35% on the line, and the offline big goods / children will increase by single / double digits. The main brand releases new brand promotional videos with the theme of Winter Olympics online, holds offline display activities and opens flash stores, which is optimistic that the Winter Olympics will promote its brand voice. FILA: the annual flow is expected to increase by 25-30%, including online growth of 30% +. The number of units of Q4 flow increased with the same period, of which the online growth was 25-30%, and the offline big goods / tide brand / children flow was flat year-on-year / low double / medium double-digit growth. Other brands: Q4 water growth slowed down, Amer significantly reduced losses.
(2) Li Ning: after women’s sports and extreme sports, Li Ning brand set foot in the skiing scene for the first time at the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics, launched the li-ningsnowboarding series, priced at 699-2999 yuan, and cooperated with many top skaters at home and abroad. It is expected that more series of products will be available in 2022h2.
(3) Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) : according to GJEPC, the import / export volume of Indian cultivated diamond rough in December was 132 / 103 million US dollars respectively, with an increase of + 104.7% / + 65.6% and a month on month increase of + 54.6% / + 20.5%. The demand in the middle and lower reaches is still strong. The import / export penetration rate is 5.9% / 5.5% and – 1.7pct / + 0.7pct. The overall upward trend of import penetration rate remains unchanged. The company is actively expanding production and increasing R & D, The market share is expected to increase.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation has deteriorated outside China. The shortage of international brand supply chain has intensified.
