\u3000\u3000 Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) (301080)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual operating revenue will be 382-402 million yuan (+ 55% - 63%), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 170-187 million yuan (+ 47% - 61%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction will be 163-180 million yuan (+ 40% - 54%). Q4 maintained rapid growth, and the revenue of covid-19 related products recovered. In terms of revenue splitting, the annual revenue of non covid-19 related products was 295-305 million yuan (+ 70% - 76%), and that of covid-19 related products was 87-97 million yuan (+ 20% - 33%). Based on the median value (excluding the impact of income outside the main business temporarily), it is estimated that the income of Q4 non covid-19 related products is 96 million yuan (+ 66%), and the income of covid-19 related products is 26 million yuan (+ 13%). Conventional products benefited from the company's continuous improvement of product system and quality control advantages following research hotspots, maintaining rapid growth, and the growth rate was also higher than Q3; Covid-19 related products reversed the slight decline in Q3 and returned to a revenue of more than 20 million yuan in a single quarter. It is expected that the recent epidemic situation is repeated, and the research on related mutant strains has driven the demand for reagents.
Profitability maintained a steady upward trend. At the profit end, the net profit attributable to the parent company according to the median Q4 is 58 million yuan (+ 52%), and the corresponding net interest rate is about 48%, which is roughly the same as Q3 and higher than H1. With the rapid expansion of the company's production and sales scale, the profitability is expected to maintain a steady upward trend.
The company is one of the giants of recombinant protein reagents in China, and its core business is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. The company is deeply engaged in the field of recombinant protein reagents, which is differentiated to provide target antigens required in the research and development of targeted therapeutic drugs, and has obvious advantages in some scarce products and application test data. In the medium and long term, the development of biological drugs in China promotes the rapid expansion of domestic demand. Driven by China's superimposed external demand in the overseas market, the company's core business of recombinant protein reagent is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be 179 / 241 / 302 million yuan, corresponding to 78 / 57 / 46 times of the current PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
