\u3000\u3000 Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) (002881)
Event: on the evening of January 21, Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will reach 110 ~ 125 million yuan, an increase of 300.9% – 355.5% compared with 27 million yuan in 2020, and the net profit excluding non attributable to the parent company is expected to be 72 ~ 87 million yuan, an increase of 343.4% – 435.8% compared with 16 million yuan in 2020.
Q4 profit increased year-on-year and is expected to improve month on month margin. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is about 31 ~ 45 million yuan, an increase of 101.7% – 200.9% year-on-year in 2020. We select the median value of 38 million yuan in the expected net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 for comparison, which is expected to be improved compared with 32 million yuan in 2021q3.
Grasp the high boom of the cellular Internet of things module industry, and the overall revenue of modules and solutions has entered the fast lane of growth. According to the counter point data, the global cellular IOT module shipment in 2021q3 was + 70% year-on-year, and the overall revenue exceeded US $1.5 billion. Due to the low base, 5g products increased by 700% year-on-year. The company seized the opportunity of high prosperity in the industry, significantly increased the shipment of 4G / 5G wireless communication modules and solutions, and is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.0% – 82.9%.
Vehicle products have been shipped in batches, opening up the growth space of the company. At present, the company’s traditional data transmission module has been widely used in T-box and other vehicle fields, and the intelligent module has also been verified and mature in the fields of intelligent cockpit, ADAS / DMS and other auxiliary driving. 5g intelligent module has been mass produced and shipped to China’s leading new energy vehicle enterprises and applied to the intelligent cockpit system. We believe that the company’s intelligent module products are expected to usher in a new round of growth space with the continuous improvement of the penetration of Android operating system in the vehicle field and the continuous development of the trend of one core multi screen and multi-channel camera access in the intelligent cabin.
Breakthroughs in smart grid products have brought new highlights to the development of the company. The Ministry of industry and information technology and other five ministries and commissions issued the action plan for innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry, which aims to significantly improve the intelligent level of photovoltaic industry by 2025, and focuses on the development of intelligent photovoltaic communication, support the demonstration application of intelligent photovoltaic in the field of information and communication, promote the intelligent transformation and green upgrading of network facilities, and promote the energy-saving innovation level of information and communication industry. The company has been deployed in the field of smart grid for many years. At present, data transmission module products have made a breakthrough in this field. The layout of downstream application fields such as overlay cloud computing, laptop and HD video has been deepened, which is expected to further extend the growth curve of the company.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the continuation of the prosperity of the Internet of things industry. At the same time, we believe that the company has obvious competitive advantages and the subsequent module shipments are expected to grow rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the company’s Internet of vehicles and smart grid related products. At the operational level, the company actively responds to external disturbances, responds to the impact of shortage and price rise of raw materials through strategic goods preparation and price transmission, and opens up the company’s profit space. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to reach 117 million yuan, 190 million yuan and 275 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 60x, 37x and 26x respectively. Select Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) and Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) as comparable companies, and the 22-year average PE valuation is 39x (all consistent with wind’s expectation). Considering the overall growth of the industry and the company, we think there is still much room to maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the development of Internet of things industry is less than expected; The development progress of downstream customers is less than expected.
