\u3000\u3000 Guomai Culture & Media Co.Ltd(301052) (301052)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 55-60 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.50% - 46.73%. The net profit after deducting non-profit was RMB 50 million-55 million, with a year-on-year increase of 31.19% - 44.31%.
Key investment points:
Continue to give full play to the advantages of online sales channels and promote the rapid growth of operating revenue. Micro-blog Kwai, WeChat, jtiktok, know, quick, bean, today's headlines are the main media platforms, and new media matrix covering companies, authors and well-known media accounts is established. As of June 2021, the company's new media matrix has accumulated more than 50 million fans. In the case of repeated local epidemics in China in 2021, the company promoted the steady expansion of planned book sales and the rapid growth of operating revenue by further giving full play to the advantages of online sales channels.
According to the company's third quarter report, the company's operating revenue increased by more than 40% in the first three quarters. Under the condition that the offline store channels are still affected by the epidemic, resulting in a 17.4% decrease in sales compared with 2019, the online sales and direct sales channels have recovered to the level of the same period in 2019.
The impact of the epidemic gradually subsided and the deep cultivation of direct sales channels is expected to further improve the company's gross profit margin. In 2021, by strengthening lean management and cost control, the company's overall gross profit margin was significantly higher than that in 2020, which promoted the increase of performance in 2021. In the first three quarters of 2021, the operating cost of the company increased by 33.59% year-on-year, which was lower than the growth rate of operating revenue. The printing cost gradually decreased and promoted the increase of the company's gross profit margin. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's overall gross profit margin was 49.54%, an increase of 2pct compared with the whole year of 2020. It is expected that with the weakening impact of the epidemic and the company's continuous deepening of online direct sales channels, the company's gross profit margin still has room for further improvement.
The 14th five year plan for copyright work and the development plan for the publishing industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period provide policy support for the healthy development of the book industry. Among them, the development plan of the publishing industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period focuses on building China into a publishing power in 2035, focusing on cultivating publishing and distribution enterprises with prominent main business, strong comprehensive strength and prominent brand value, strengthening the supervision and management of publication prices, promoting book price legislation, and stopping the "price war" of online and offline publication sales; The 14th five year plan for copyright work emphasizes the need to improve the copyright legal system and administrative protection system, and significantly improve the level of copyright protection. In the long run, the implementation of policy objectives will help the book publishing and distribution industry maintain a stable profit margin, and prevent malicious price war and losses caused by pirated books to book publishing and distribution companies.
Four seas is expected to bring huge investment returns in 2022. The company's film "Four Seas" has been scheduled to be released in the Spring Festival of 2022. The company has invested 13 million yuan, accounting for 5% of the film investment. In 2019, the total box office of the comedy type + racing themed spring festival film "flying life" directed by Han Han was 1.728 billion yuan. Referring to the proportion of each share in the current film industry, assuming that the film "Four Seas" released by the same director, the same type and theme and the same schedule finally obtained a total box office of 1.5 billion yuan, It is expected to bring investment income of about 9 million yuan to 13 million yuan to the company.
Investment rating and profit forecast: the company has outstanding main business, rich author resources and Book IP, strong book planning ability and Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) whole system marketing channels. Through deep cultivation of online sales channels and excavation of direct sales channels, the company maintained a rapid performance recovery speed in the post epidemic era.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.80 yuan / 1.21 yuan / 1.45 yuan. According to the closing price of 41.03 yuan on January 21, 2022, the corresponding PE will be 51.36 times / 33.83 times / 28.28 times, giving the company an "overweight" investment rating.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic recurrence and variation risk; Planned book sales and price changes are less than expected; Changes in preferential tax policies; Infringement of copyright; Prepayment risk; The box office of the film was less than expected
