The Baijiu season is approaching. The peak season of liquor consumption has arrived. The major breweries are eager for a fight.
The reporter of securities times · e company learned that at present, the market price of “Mao, Wu and Lu” is relatively stable without significant fluctuation. However, recently, Maotai has made frequent moves, non-standard new products have been intensively released, and the market has the trend of rising volume and price.
At present, A-Shares Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519), Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (600702), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369) and other stocks have disclosed their performance expectations last year, and their net profits have increased significantly. However, what needs to be concerned is that in 2021, the output of Baijiu Baijiu was 715.63 million liters, down 0.59% compared with the same period last year, and the liquor industry was further concentrated.
“maowulu”
the price remained stable
As the new year’s business is approaching, the reporters of the securities times e interviewed many Baijiu dealers that the leading liquor companies had received good returns in the first quarter of this year. However, brand Baijiu prices were relatively stable, there was no significant fluctuations.
Affected by the current epidemic, the national large-scale banquet market has been impacted. It is expected that the local Chinese new year will allow families to gather and give gifts, and other scenes are still expected to be maintained. From the geographical perspective, the traditional Baijiu consumption provinces such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan and other regions have remained stable, while Henan has suffered some losses due to the epidemic.
Baijiu, a hotly contested spot for Baijiu enterprises, is the Henan market. Data show that the scale of liquor sales in Henan is close to 60 billion yuan, and consumption is highly preferred. Among them, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Yanghe and Fenjiu are in the forefront of Henan market, with sales volume of about 5 billion yuan, 3 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan respectively; The volume of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) is 1.3 billion yuan and 700 million yuan respectively; In addition, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , shede and other brands also occupy a place, with a volume of about 500 million yuan.
At present, the current round of epidemic situation is mainly concentrated in Xuchang, Anyang, Zhengzhou and other places. Many places are closed, and markets such as banquets and gatherings are damaged, but the impact is relatively controllable.
It is reported that Baijiu Henan market price is still strong, Moutai bulk bottle price of about 2800 yuan, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and national cellar 1573 price is 980 yuan and 920 yuan, a slight increase of 30 yuan ~40 yuan. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) it is expected that sub high-end famous wines with a high share in Henan market may be slightly affected, such as Yanghe, Fenjiu, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) .
A liquor dealer in Chengdu told reporters on the securities times that the price of Baijiu Baijiu remained stable throughout the new year’s day. Among them, the price of Maotai fluctuated slightly in the range of 2800 yuan to 3300 yuan, with no big change; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the prices of puwu eighth generation and Guojiao 1573 are about 990 yuan and 950 yuan respectively.
The reporter learned that the early Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) general five approval price was affected by the increase of channel delivery and the repeated epidemic situation, which led to the return of funds from some dealers and affected the price. Recently, the approval price has tended to be relatively stable.
Maotai non-standard products
prices continued to rise
For a long time, the market has been expecting a high price increase for Maotai. The ex factory price of 53 degree flying Maotai, the core, has not increased for a long time. Recently, the prices of Maotai vintage wine, series wine and export products have generally increased.
In less than a month recently, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has intensively released a number of new products. Although some wine products have not been sold on the market, the market price of the products has “soared”.
On December 29, 2021, Maotai released a new high-end and precious Maotai liquor. The price of this rare Maotai wine increased from 4499 yuan / bottle to 4599 yuan / bottle less than a week after its release.
At present, rare wines have formed a series, including “1704”, square printing treasures, Qu printing treasures, large, medium and small wood treasures, purple sand treasures, etc. the so-called new products are a supplement to the existing series. Now, it is difficult for ordinary consumers to easily buy this Maotai liquor at the price of 4599 yuan / bottle. On the Jingdong platform, the price of a single bottle of Maotai treasure colored glaze is generally about 6599 yuan.
Maotai Zodiac liquor is also sought after by Maofen. On January 5, 2022, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) released five Chinese Zodiac wines in one breath. Among them, the market guide price of 53 degree 500ml Maotai lunar new year tiger wine is 2499 yuan / bottle, 53 degree 375ml x2 Maotai lunar new year tiger wine is 3599 yuan / bottle, 53 degree 500ml Maotai Prince wine lunar new year tiger wine is 988 yuan / bottle, 53 degree 2.5L Guizhou Daqu Lunar New Year tiger wine is 2888 yuan / bottle, and 53 degree 500ml Lai Mao lunar new year tiger wine is 988 yuan / bottle.
A Chengdu Baijiu dealer told reporters that many dealers have not yet received the treasures and tiger grass, because the treasures are new products, the first batch is scarce, some people in the market bid 6000 yuan. In addition, the pre selling price of 53 degree 500ml Maotai Lunar New Year of the tiger liquor in the dealer’s market has reached 5200 ~ 5800 yuan / bottle, and the volume of goods circulating and sold on the market is very rare.
The reporter of securities times · e company noted that at present, the third-party dealer Hu Mao on Jingdong platform has arrived, and the price of six full containers is 35994 yuan, and the price of each bottle of wine is 5999 yuan.
Then, on January 18, “Maotai 1935” was officially released, and the market retail guide price was 1188 yuan / bottle. For a long time, 53 degree flying Maotai has monopolized the price belt of more than 1000 yuan, while the price belt of series liquor is mostly less than 1000 yuan. Today, Maotai 1935, nicknamed as the “low configuration version of Maotai”, is aimed at filling the gap of Maotai 1000 yuan price band, and will directly compare with standard Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) puwu and Guojiao 1573.
At 0:00 on January 20, an e-commerce platform went online to rush to buy Maotai 1935, but more than 400000 people made an appointment before the rush. After the rush began at the point, Maotai 1935 was in a flash. According to the first liquor price, the market wholesale price of Maotai 1935 rose one after another. The prices on January 20 and 21 were 1500 yuan and 1550 yuan respectively. It is still not easy for ordinary consumers to buy at a low price.
In addition to Maotai, the price of Wuliang Luzhou flavor Chinese Zodiac wine in the year of the tiger has also been adjusted to about 1599 yuan / bottle, which has also ushered in a wave of hot sales after its listing. It is reported that the total pre-sale volume of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Chinese Zodiac wine once increased by 350% year-on-year on the three platforms of Jingdong, tmall and Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) , setting its marketing record of Chinese Zodiac wine.
Baijiu liquor is short of good wine
In the public impression, “A five” and “a big wave” listed companies have been rising in volume and price, and their business performance is also growing rapidly. It seems that the whole Baijiu industry is thriving.
In 2021, the Baijiu industry remained stable, and the head effect was still obvious. In the context of consumption upgrading, the scale of the traditional “maowulu” high-end brand continues to grow, and the parity (1499 yuan) of Feitian Maotai is still difficult to find. There is a strong brand barrier in the price band of 1000 yuan, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) adopts the follow-up strategy to continuously improve the brand value of Guojiao 1573.
However, the official wechat of China Wine Industry Association recently disclosed that from January to December 2021, enterprises above Designated Size in the national brewing industry completed a total brewing output of 54.0685 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 3.95%. Among them, the output of Baijiu was 715.63 million liters, down 0.59% from the same period last year. From the above data, the total output of Baijiu industry is down year by year, which means that a large number of small and medium enterprises are not very good.
Chinese Baijiu Cai Xuefei, a Baijiu analyst, told reporters at the securities times e that the differentiation and adjustment of the Chinese liquor industry is coming to an end. The industry has begun to enter the era of value consumption with the core of brand and quality. However, Baijiu is still the best track in the industry, and the upgrading of consumption is a long-term trend.
Li Shuguang, chairman of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group, also said that the Baijiu industry is an eternal sunrise industry, which is short of wine in the long run, but it lacks good wine for a long time. Liquor consumption demand is strong, especially the unique social attributes of high-end Baijiu Baijiu liquor. Baijiu “three concentration” trend is strong, to the dominant varieties, advantages of production capacity, dominant areas of production become a new normal.
