Since the beginning of 2022, the digital economy has continued to receive policy catalysis at the top-level design level, with continuous benefits. Affected by this, the relevant sectors of digital economy have been pushed to the forefront, and the secondary market performance in some segments is hot.
Is this round of digital economy sustainable? What is the background of the intensive introduction of top-level design policies related to the digital economy? What are the medium and long-term prospects of the market? Which segments deserve special attention? How do investors choose the right fund for layout? The reporter of China fund daily interviewed investment researchers from eight fund companies:
Equity Research Department of South Fund
Wang He, researcher of Boshi fund industry research department
investment promotion steady optimization fund manager Chen Xizhong
Liu Rui, growth power fund manager of CITIC Prudential
Zhang Lin, director of Xinhua fund research department and fund manager of Xinhua cloud 50ETF
Shi Hongjun, general manager of Pengyang fund quantity investment department and director of index investment
Wang haobing, manager of ChuangJin Hexin digital economy fund
Zhou Jiansheng, senior researcher of Nord foundation
In the opinion of the above respondents, the clear policy orientation and relatively low valuation are triggered together, and the digital economy has become a new outlet since the beginning of the year. Under the current market environment, the explosive general rise may not last too long. However, the digital economy has been in a very important strategic position, and the core industry will continue to remain at the tuyere in the future, which is expected to become one of the main lines of the future growth direction of the market.
explosive general rising market may be difficult to sustain
core industries are expected to continue to maintain
China Fund News reporter: digital economy has become the tuyere since the beginning of the year. How to treat this outbreak of the market? Is it sustainable?
Equity Research Department of China Southern Fund: most of the subdivided tracks in the digital economy sector are continuous growth tracks. Although the business model of 2b2g is not explosive, it has shown strong stability in history. From the perspective of the penetration rate of each subdivided track, it is still low and has a large business space. At the same time, the overall sector is highly related to liquidity, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates is relatively beneficial to valuation expansion. Previously, the digital economy sector experienced a long period of adjustment, institutional positions were at the bottom of many years, and the valuation level was generally at a low level. In particular, many small and medium-sized companies returned to 20-30x PE, with a certain margin of safety. Therefore, we are relatively optimistic about the sustainability of the sector.
Shi Hongjun: digital economy is a long-term outlet in the future, but it has just begun. Since the digital economy was written into the government work report in 2017, it has been precipitating. It did not enter the public’s vision until this year with the introduction of various policies.
Since the 18th National Congress, the theme of digital economy has become a national strategy, which is a new economic direction that the party and the state must vigorously develop. How to understand this is inspired by the article “must achieve high-quality development”, which points out that innovation drive is the fundamental feature of realizing high-quality development. In addition, there is another sentence in the article that impressed me very deeply: scientific and technological innovation is not a problem of development for China, but a problem of survival. Digital economy is an important carrier or path to realize scientific and technological innovation. 2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan. Since the second half of last year, many provinces and cities have announced the 14th five year plan for digital economy. It can be said that the development of digital economy has been in a very important strategic position, because it is related to innovation driven and high-quality development.
However, the strong sustainability is mainly reflected in the fact that the digital economy does not happen overnight and will continue for a long time in the future. The party and the state have issued a series of guidance documents on the development of the digital economy, such as the 14th five year plan for digital economy development issued by the State Council in January, which sets development goals for the digital economy, Focus more on the core industries based on scientific and Technological Development in the digital economy. It can be expected that under the guidance of the party and the state, the core industry of digital economy will continue to remain at the forefront in the future.
Chen Xizhong: on January 12, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy. Since 2021, the intensive policy planning has conveyed a clear policy orientation and attracted market attention. At the same time, the market performance of the computer, communication and other sectors related to the digital economy has been relatively weak in the past two years, and the valuation is relatively low. Therefore, the digital economy has become a new outlet since the beginning of the year.
We believe that under the current market environment, the explosive general rise is difficult to last for too long, but some industries related to the digital economy, such as computers and communications, still have room for valuation repair, especially some of the subdivision directions with good fundamental performance and large valuation space, and individual stocks are expected to continue to perform in the future.
Wang haobing: we believe that the senior management has shown great importance to the digital economy. At the same time, with the development of basic technologies such as mobile Internet, 5g, Internet of things, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, the foundation for the rapid development of digital economy has been gradually established. Therefore, digital economy is a direction worthy of continuous attention.
Liu Rui: against the background of Sino US scientific and technological confrontation, China’s digital economy opportunities outweigh risks in the next 5-10 years. Under the new technological change, China has blossomed in many places and ushered in historic opportunities: talent advantage (from engineer bonus to talent bonus) + capital advantage + demand advantage. From the perspective of lengthening the cycle, there is reason to believe that China’s digital economy will have long-term opportunities in the future.
Zhang Lin: we are very optimistic and believe that this market will have a good sustainability. On January 12, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy. The overall goal is that by 2025, the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of GDP, including 800 million IPv6 active users, 60 million Gigabit broadband users, 14 trillion yuan in software and information technology services, and 45% in the application penetration rate of industrial Internet platform. It can be seen that from now to 2025, the digital economy is entering a comprehensive expansion period. In the next four years, independent technology, infrastructure, industrial digitization and digital industrialization, data security and governance will usher in rapid development. Among them, cloud computing, as the most basic and important embodiment of the digital economy, will be directly or indirectly catalyzed and is expected to accelerate its development.
Wang He: it is a long-term trend for digitization and intelligence to boost social efficiency. It is sustainable. Scientific and technological innovation drives productivity progress and creates social value.
Zhou Jiansheng: we believe that the market of digital economy must be sustainable, which is nothing more than more in a certain period and less in a certain period. In recent years, Internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, blockchain and other technologies have been increasingly integrated into the whole process of various fields of economic and social development. Digital economy is becoming a key force in restructuring global factor resources, reshaping global economic structure and changing global competition pattern. At present, China is in an important period of economic shift and structural adjustment, and the digital economy will play an important role in both the country and the people. We believe that the market of the digital economy sector will continue to be realized with the sustainable development of the industry. There may be shocks during this period, but the historical trend will not be changed. We should not be opportunistic in the era of great opportunities.
the sector has comparative advantages in 2022
digital economy may become a major investment main line
reporter of China Fund News: how do you expect the performance of the secondary market of digital economy? Some people think that digital economy will take over new energy and become one of the hottest sectors in 2022. What do you think?
Shi Hongjun: from the perspective of valuation, the current valuation of the digital economy index is about 59 times, which is similar to the gem index. However, the weighted PE of the constituent stocks of the digital economy index is 43% of the historical quantile, and the valuation of the gem index is 75% of the historical quantile. The digital economy index is not expensive relative to its historical valuation. In terms of fundamentals, the expected revenue growth and performance growth of digital economy in 2022 are 26.4% and 32% respectively, much higher than the overall market and TMT industry. From the perspective of fundamentals and valuation, the digital economy is currently in a relatively reasonable allocation range. In addition, it is in the tuyere of development, and its explosive power can be expected.
Digital economy will become one of the hottest sectors in 2022. I think it is possible. If I give a description of the digital economy, I would say that it is the next “100 billion level track”. As mentioned in the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy, by 2025, the digital economy will move towards a period of comprehensive expansion, and the added value of the core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of GDP. According to the annual growth rate, the added value of the core industries of digital economy will far exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2025, and the core industries of digital economy are electronic information manufacturing, software and information services Information and communication industry and other digital related industries are also the core weight industries in the digital economy index.
Chen Xizhong: at present, the secondary market has no clear and consistent expectations for the digital economy. Some people believe that the digital economy will take over and new energy will become one of the hottest sectors in 2022, while others believe that most concepts are difficult to implement.
We believe that from the perspective of major industrial trends and policy directions, the digital economy is expected to become one of the main lines of the future growth direction of the market together with new energy. However, it is different from new energy in that the digital economy covers a wide range of industries. It is necessary to further select the layout of subdivided tracks in the TMT industry related to the digital economy.
Equity Research Department of China Southern Fund: the attribute of stable growth of the sector appears to lack comparative advantages in 2021. Because there are many other large sectors with obvious comparative advantages (procyclical, new energy, semiconductor, etc.), and the digital economy is affected by the cycle after the epidemic in 2020, the financial and corporate budgets are suppressed in the actual implementation process, The fundamentals of the sector itself decreased slightly. The overall economic performance in 2021 is good, and the post cyclical impact will be reflected in the improvement of fundamentals in 2022. At the same time, from the third quarter of 21, the downward pressure on the economy began to reflect, and the stability of the digital economy began to reflect its advantages. Therefore, we are relatively optimistic about the comparative advantage of the sector in 2022.
Wang haobing: the connotation of digital economy is very broad, including not only the direction of digital industrialization, but also the direction of industrial digitization. The performance of core companies related to digital technology and high-quality companies in traditional industries actively embracing digital transformation in the future is worth looking forward to. It is difficult for us to judge the short-term market performance, but we believe that the long-term prospect of the digital economy is promising.
Zhang Lin: the development prospect of digital economy and the performance of the secondary market have the opportunity to take over new energy and become the most burning track in the future. Because not only has the country promoted the digital economy to a high strategic position, but also put forward a clear time point and specific plan. We believe that cloud computing, the core representative of the digital economy, has become one of the core themes of the times. From the upstream situation of the industrial chain (shipment of chips and servers) and the capital expenditure direction of downstream cloud service providers, the prosperity of the cloud computing industry is gradually entering an upward channel.
Zhou Jiansheng: the short-term performance of the secondary market of digital economy is relatively good. We suggest a rational view. As the sages said, we can neither overestimate the short-term impact of the digital economy, nor underestimate the long-term potential and space of the digital economy. Many stocks in the digital economy sector have experienced valuation reduction and performance rise in the past period, which objectively have the conditions for rise. Some stocks may be more thematic, and the uncertainty of performance fulfillment is high. Therefore, we suggest that we should treat the market of the digital economy sector rationally and analyze specific problems of individual stocks.
We believe that “digital economy will take over new energy and become one of the hottest sectors in 2022” is a good wish and optimistic expectation. The new energy sector has experienced nearly two years of enthusiasm, and everyone’s confidence in new energy is high. But at the same time, we need to maintain a reasonable view of history to look at the popularity of new energy. Before the two-year boom, new energy has been pursued for many rounds in the secondary market, but few companies can continue to deliver performance after the heat. Finally, the sector returned to normal until recent years with the continuous progress of the industry and the addition of fresh new energy blood in the secondary market, We have seen solid performance, high growth and continuous realization, which has aroused the enthusiasm of the capital market. For the digital economy, we suggest that we should look at the possible opportunities in the future with a realistic attitude. As we all know, the digital economy sector on the other side of the ocean is the hottest sector in the market, and even the main driving force for their index rise. This is due to the fact that they have a large number of excellent listed companies. These companies are leaders in the industry and their contributions to the society are obvious to all. The natural eyes of the capital market are also bright.
In contrast, the gold content of the digital economy sector in China’s capital market is relatively weak. We can see that many companies are growing rapidly, but there is still a certain distance from those giants on the other side of the ocean. For this, we should be realistic. The capital market will reasonably price the value created by enterprises after all, As long as our digital economy industry continues to create higher value, it is natural to get the favor of capital, just as the new energy sector has deduced in the capital market in recent years.
Liu Rui: digital economy may become a good investment main line in 2022. On the one hand, it is supported by industrial policies. On the other hand, it is also seen that many companies’ new products and technologies are promoting the innovation and development of the industry.
Wang He: the performance of the secondary market of digital economy also needs to observe the specific landing measures and supporting rhythm after the introduction of top-level policies.
digital economy is in an important strategic position
medium and long-term development prospects are optimistic
China Fund News reporter: about the digital economy, the background of intensive policies at the top-level design level? What is the catalytic effect of relevant policies and the medium – and long-term prospects of the market?
Chen Xizhong: the background of intensive policy introduction at the top-level design level mainly includes two aspects: first, China’s economic development is currently facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation, and the policy has clearly released the signal of stable growth.
According to the “14th five year plan” for digital economy development of the State Council, by 2020, the added value of China’s core industries of digital economy will account for 7.8% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP). By 2025, the goal is that the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of GDP. Digital economy is not only a new economic growth point, but also an important fulcrum for transforming and upgrading traditional industries, Provide a strong driving force for steady economic growth and high-quality development. Second, the development of digital economy has been paid more and more attention by countries all over the world, and has become the key field of a new round of international competition. The development of digital economy will help to enhance the international competitiveness of China’s industry.
From a policy perspective, the recent intensive introduction of a number of national policies has raised the digital economy to a new height related to the overall situation of national development. Top level design and supporting policies help to accelerate the development of China’s digital economy. Digital manufacturers related to the core industries of digital economy are expected to benefit first. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term prospects of the market.
Wang haobing: it is mainly because the foundation of digital transformation has become more and more mature, and the senior management has paid more and more attention to the role of digitization in promoting high-quality development. At present, the high-level statements are more programmatic. In the future, we can expect more detailed support policies to be implemented, which will also accelerate the development of digital economy.
Shi Hongjun: in fact, the state publishes policies for all walks of life every year, but this year, in addition to the policies, there is also a guidance from Qiushi magazine. The article “constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China’s digital economy” is strategically located, carries out the top-level design of the digital economy and makes a strategic deployment on how to develop the digital economy. Since the 18th National Congress, the party and the state have raised the digital economy into a national strategy, and issued the implementation outline of the network power strategy, the outline of the digital economy development strategy and the digital economy development plan in the 14th five year plan to guide the development direction of the digital economy. After the introduction of intensive policy support, the digital economy index began to rebound from its low level. Therefore, both the policy perspective and the index itself are optimistic about the performance of the digital economy for a long time.
Equity Research Department of China Southern Fund: Policies occur frequently, which has become an important pull to improve the attention of the sector and the medium-term fundamentals of the sector. Recently, the network information office of the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the 14th five year plan for digital economy and the 14th five year plan for informatization respectively, and the top-level policy planning paid more attention to digital economy. Digital economy is a country’s core competitiveness. Under the background of the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend and the long-term decline of the working population of school age, it is a general trend for all walks of life to improve efficiency through digital means. We are also concerned that with the progress of technical means, in the past, information companies mainly provided functional software and charged fixed project income. In recent years, more and more software can cut into customer business, truly reduce costs and increase efficiency for customers, and also derive richer business models. Considering that the downstream of the digital economy sector is still dominated by the party, government and army, the inclination of the policy to increase the budget will actually be reflected in the medium-term fundamentals of the sector. We see that all localities have successively issued industrial support policies, which has also promoted the demand of the sector.
Liu Rui: affected by the recent intensive introduction of top-level design policies, the digital economy has received strong attention from the market. At present, the digital transformation continues to accelerate, and digital technologies such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and blockchain are fully integrated into all fields and the whole process of economic and social development. The medium and long-term prospects of the market are optimistic.
Zhang Lin: in recent years, China’s digital technology has developed rapidly, widely penetrated into the fields of production and life and public governance, and further highlighted its position in the national economy. Digital economy will lead a new round of economic cycle and become a new engine of economic development.
The policy intensive documents issued at the top-level design level have a strong catalytic effect on the digital economy, which not only further strengthened the confidence of the market, but also a booster for industry related companies and played a role in stabilizing market expectations. Under the background of China’s manufacturing upgrading, the future prospect of digital economy industry is very promising.
Zhou Jiansheng: for the background of intensive introduction of policies at the top-level design level related to the digital economy, we believe that it is the result of the CPC Central Committee judging the situation and grasping the development law of market economy and the trend of industrial reform. After the first industrial revolution represented by steam engine, the second industrial revolution represented by electrification and the third industrial revolution represented by automation, mankind has entered the digital era. The top-level design related to digital economy is our response to the digital era. Since 2017, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has conducted four collective studies on topics related to the digital economy, involving cutting-edge technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain and quantum technology. It can be seen that the top-level design is a response plan made by our party after careful consideration.
The catalysis of relevant policies on the digital economy will be very positive and long-term. In the long run, it may change the maturity and application curve of many technologies, which is of great significance to China’s ongoing economic structure transformation and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In the 1990s, the United States took the lead in the information technology industry through the “national information superhighway” plan. So far, most IT giants are occupied by the United States. I believe our top-level design will also bring the effect of four or two catties at the implementation level. The government promotes the acceleration of industrialization of digital economy enterprises through various policies on the one hand, and leads enterprises to accelerate digital transformation on the other hand, We will eventually achieve the development and growth of China’s digital economy and contribute to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In the medium term, we predict that the penetration rate of China’s digital economy will accelerate; In the long run, digital economy has the potential to become the largest sector and build China’s global competitive advantage.
based on digital industrialization and industrial digitization
layout benefits software and hardware opportunities in subdivided areas
reporter from China Fund News: what are the sub sectors of the digital economy and what is the potential of each sub sector? What are the opportunities and risks at present?
Chen Xizhong: digital economy can be divided into two fields: Digital industrialization and industrial digitization. Digital industrialization mainly involves emerging technology industries such as integrated circuit, Internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and blockchain, with great development potential and space. At present, the risks mainly lie in the insufficient innovation ability in key areas or controlled by others, and the digital economy governance system needs to be further improved. Industrial digitization mainly covers the digital upgrading of traditional industries. In the 14th five year plan for digital economy development, it is proposed to comprehensively deepen the digital transformation of key industries. The seven key industries explicitly mentioned in the plan include agriculture and water conservancy, industry and manufacturing, industrial interconnection, e-commerce, smart logistics, finance and energy. On the whole, there is a broad space for industrial digitization, and the risks (problems) mainly lie in the difficulty in the final landing of emerging technologies and the slow commercial application.
Wang haobing: digital economy mainly has two directions: Digital industrialization and industrial digitization. Digital industrialization is the basic part of digital economy, which mainly refers to the information industry, including electronics, communication, Internet, software, etc., that is, the TMT industry, which constitutes the foundation of digital economy. The second is industrial digitization, that is, the integration of digital technology and traditional industries. The application of digital technology in traditional industries will increase the output and efficiency of traditional industries. All walks of life can realize transformation and upgrading, and make investors get better returns.
We believe that both are expected to make considerable development in the future. The current development stage of industrial digitization is relatively early, and the high-level support is greater, so there is more room for development.
Equity Research Department of South Fund: digital economy is a concept covering a wide range. The major aspects can be divided into infrastructure and upper application software. Among them, infrastructure mainly includes IDC, it equipment, network equipment, network security, communication, etc. The upper application software can be divided into general and industrial applications, including the information software required for the operation of various industries. The general type mainly includes ERP, OA, CRM, AI and other enterprise service tracks, while the large industry applications mainly include government informatization, financial technology, medical it, Internet of vehicles, military informatization, etc. On the whole, according to the industry penetration, the industry growth rate varies from 10% to 25% at the infrastructure level. Its underlying logic is to develop with the continuous expansion of digital economy industry and data volume, which will directly benefit from the development of digital economy. Among them, relatively mature industries (IT equipment and communication) will also show a certain periodicity, and usually have better investment value at the bottom of the cycle. The upper application is more stable growth track, and the track with more prosperous downstream industry usually has stronger performance support.
Liu Rui: the pull of digital economy on GDP has become the consensus of China’s economic transformation. You can pay attention to the cloud computing + industry, that is, the investment opportunities of industrial Internet. In terms of segmentation, we can pay attention to the informatization of industrial software, cloud computing infrastructure, finance, medical treatment and other industries. We believe that there are two risks. One is the disturbance of macroeconomic growth, and the other is the disturbance caused by the Sino US scientific and technological confrontation.
Zhang Lin: the subdivided industries of digital economy include cloud computing, industrial digitization and intelligence, Internet sales, etc. Among them, industrial digitization and intelligence are mainly manifested in two levels, namely, cloud and intelligence. According to relevant plans, the estimated scale of the big data industry will exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2025, the average annual compound growth rate will remain at about 25% from 2020 to 2025, and a modern big data industry system with strong innovation, high added value and self-control will be basically formed. The volume of China’s manufacturing and service industries can breed a number of listed companies with a market value of 100 billion in the future.
Although the future business model of digital RMB is uncertain, the trend is very certain. At present, we need to pay attention to the promotion rhythm and the expectation of the capital market. Some subdivided industries also have development problems such as early growth and fierce competition.
Wang He: technology software and hardware benefit. There are two ideas for subdividing areas. First, in areas with large stock tracks, the absolute amount of value created after the efficiency improvement brought by digitization is also relatively large; Second, disruptive technology brings new market space and business model. The problem is the speed of cashing and the competitive pattern.
Zhou Jiansheng: digital economy has many subdivided industries and many division methods. We use the common upstream, middle and downstream methods that are more acceptable to everyone. The upstream of digital economy is mainly various infrastructures, such as 5g industrial chain with 5g network as the core, basic components such as chips, PCBs, etc; The midstream of digital economy refers to digital industrialization, including artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, blockchain, Internet and other subdivided fields; The downstream of digital economy refers to digital currency, digital government, smart city, industrial Internet, Internet of vehicles and other applications. Upstream infrastructure involves all aspects of the national economy. Taking 5g as an example, the impact of 5g network on the national economy may be no less than China’s investment in infrastructure such as “railway, public machine” in the past few years. The problem is that China’s investment in digital infrastructure has been at the global leading level. Although the total scale is still large, the marginal change is relatively small, The corresponding investment opportunities in the secondary market may not be so easy to explore. Midstream digital industrialization is the biggest opportunity we see in U.S. stocks. Key technologies with artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data and blockchain as the core enable all walks of life. These segmentation technology leaders have become trendsetters in today’s digital economy era and are investment opportunities worthy of our attention; At the same time, digital industrialization will also bring some risks such as data security and government supervision. These risks related to digital governance need us to be vigilant. Downstream industries have a wide range of digital application fields. Maybe our investors need to pay attention to the most obvious segmentation fields with marginal changes, such as digital currency, Internet of vehicles and other fields are in full swing. The risks we need to pay attention to are mainly the downstream actual application penetration and beware of application scenarios that cannot be landed.
virtual reality hardware, cloud computing, intelligent driving,
industrial Internet is favored
reporter of China Fund News: which segments are most optimistic about at present? From the perspective of investment logic and order, how to choose and layout?
Chen Xizhong: our promising directions include: 1) underlying software and hardware fields such as key core technologies and new infrastructure; 2) Digitalization of manufacturing industry and digitalization application of finance, energy, medical treatment and other industries; 3) Consumer digital applications such as smart cars and metauniverse.
From the perspective of policy support and industrial development order, key core technologies and new infrastructure, as the core base of digital economy, are expected to benefit first. The second is industry digital application and consumer digital application. We should combine the current performance and valuation to select the subdivision areas with strong performance determination and sustainability and relatively high valuation cost performance.
Wang haobing: for the direction of digital industrialization, we mainly focus on virtual reality hardware, electronic upstream materials and components, medical informatization, industrial software, information security and other fields; For the direction of industrial digitization, we focus on high-quality enterprises in subdivided fields actively embracing digital transformation, including power grid, breeding, manufacturing and other fields.
Zhang Lin: at present, the most promising track has several aspects: cloud computing, intelligent driving, digital RMB, Xinchuang and industrial Internet. Under the digital economy, the investment logic can be sorted according to the progress and depth of promotion and implementation of subdivided industries.
First of all, we are most optimistic about cloud computing, which is the shovel seller of the whole digital economy. In the post 5g application era, the ceiling of cloud services has been continuously improved under various ideas such as openness, open source and cloud ecology. Considering China’s huge consumer demand, independent and controllable security needs at the national level and the continuous improvement of the innovation ability of market players such as Alibaba and Tencent, China’s cloud computing industry is expected to overtake at the corner. Combined with the law of international industrial development, we believe that the present is a good time to configure China’s cloud computing industry to move towards self-control and overtaking in curves in the future.
Secondly, digital RMB has been piloted for 2-3 years. At the beginning of 2022, the pilot version of digital RMB app was officially launched, and more than 260 million personal digital wallets have been opened, which represents that digital RMB has moved from closed test to open application, and user groups and scenarios are expected to usher in explosive growth. Relevant listed companies such as bank it and intelligent terminal (POS) can be arranged.
Third, intelligent driving has ushered in the penetration from intelligent cockpit to L3 level intelligent driving landing, which can be mainly arranged around two tracks: cockpit intelligence and driving intelligence. A large amount of investment in new energy construction will give birth to a large number of new it needs. This track can be arranged around relevant information companies on the power generation side, distribution side and power consumption side.
Equity Research Department of China Southern Fund: in terms of layout, we think we can follow two main lines: the first is the direction in which the margin most benefits from the policy, such as government informatization, information innovation and network security. In addition, the explicit incremental requirements in the policy will bring investment opportunities for some new tracks, such as clarifying data elements and strengthening data circulation, It is derived that new investment opportunities may appear in new tracks such as data exchange and data security. The second is to select the digital track corresponding to the downstream booming industries, such as financial it, medical it, metauniverse, etc. generally, such track has better demand support for digitization.
Shi Hongjun: the weight industries of digital economy are mainly electronics and computers, accounting for 44% and 36% respectively. Among them, the core of electronics is optimistic about semiconductors. We believe that the process of domestic substitution in the neck field will continue to accelerate, and there are profound changes in the technological progress of the whole industrial chain. With the continuous fermentation of automotive intelligence and the concept of meta universe, the market space of semiconductors is still broad. Moreover, the current semiconductor weight of digital economy focuses on chip design. Under the background of global lack of chips, the profit margin of relevant companies is expected to remain high.
In the computer sector, under the technology market in 2021, the computer software sector is relatively stable. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the high growth certainty of new energy has a huge siphon effect on high-risk preference funds; On the other hand, the “stuck neck” problem and the shortage of chips have catalyzed the mood of the semiconductor sector, while the catalysis of computer software is relatively less. The current computer valuation is about 43 times, which is within the historical 10% quantile since 2016. With the continuous release of digital economic policy signals, basic software will benefit the most, network security will become a long-term stable growth track, and the computer boom is expected to rise.
Zhou Jiansheng: from the perspective of order, the opportunities for new infrastructure are undoubtedly deterministic and front-end, such as the construction of 5g network facilities, national computing power center, cloud network integration, etc. The second is China’s weak key components and basic software. These fields will bring long-term investment opportunities to the capital market when we narrow the gap with developed countries. We are optimistic about investment opportunities in chip field, basic software, industrial software, etc. For investment opportunities in subdivided fields, I suggest to grasp a main line, which is to focus on whether it can help China break through key core technologies and help China obtain digital economy autonomy. As long as these can be achieved, whether it is a big leader in the industry, a “specialized and special new” enterprise and a single champion enterprise in the manufacturing industry, it is a good investment target.
the overall volatility of the industry sector is high
bargain hunting configuration or long-term fixed investment
China Fund News reporter: if you use funds to layout, how should you choose? What should I pay attention to?
Chen Xizhong: through the fund layout, you can consider choosing funds that specifically invest in the above-mentioned subdivision directions, including computer, communication and other industry theme funds or index funds, or choosing fund managers with strong TMT background. As the overall volatility of industries related to digital economy is relatively high, it is recommended to pay attention to preventing short-term fluctuations and not chasing higher in the process of allocation.
Wang haobing: like investing in other actively managed funds, investing in digital economy theme funds needs to pay attention to whether the investment philosophy of fund managers is consistent with themselves. Moreover, the digital economy covers a wide range of fields. Investors should also pay attention to whether the subdivision direction of recent key investment in fund products is consistent with their own needs.
Liu Rui: you can find fund managers with rich investment experience and excellent long-term performance in the past. However, it also reminds investors to select appropriate products according to their risk tolerance, investment objectives and investment period.
Equity Research Department of Southern Fund: digital economy is a relatively general concept, and there are obvious differences in the position selection of related funds. It is suggested to refer to the two layout ideas we recommend in the track layout to diversify investment and avoid excessive concentration of risks. At the same time, considering that the digital economy is a long-term industrial trend and the fundamentals of relevant industries are steadily upward, it is suggested that investors should not pursue short-term hot spots in the fund layout, and the layout can often obtain more ideal returns at the time points with low market attention.
Shi Hongjun: there are many “digital economy concept” theme funds, but there is only one digital economy theme fund in the current market. The fund tracks the CSI digital economy theme index, which focuses on digital industrialization and industrial digitization. The index itself has high growth attributes. The current valuation is also at a historically low position and is currently in a more reasonable allocation range. In addition, the digital economy index has high elasticity, which is very suitable for investors who like to do band.
Zhang Lin: layout the digital economy through funds, including cloud computing, 50ETF and other products. Compared with direct investment in stocks, index fund products such as ETF are more friendly. On the one hand, ETF is the most convenient way of portfolio investment. Buying ETF is equivalent to buying dozens or even hundreds of constituent stocks corresponding to the index. On the other hand, portfolio investment can fully disperse risks and prevent the risk of excessive fluctuation of individual stocks. The handling rate is also lower.
Zhou Jiansheng: if the fund is used for layout, it is recommended to judge its digital economy content according to the historical investment characteristics of the fund products, so as to judge whether it has significantly benefited from the great development of digital economy industry. When investing, we need to avoid the possible behavior of rubbing hot spots. Digital economy is the general trend of the times, not a short-term concept hot spot. For those who only rub hot spots and do not adhere to the digital economy industry for a long time, we think it is unlikely to enjoy the dividends brought by the development of digital economy industry in the future.
