Near the Spring Festival holiday, holding money or holding shares will always become a hot topic for all parties. Since the beginning of this year, the performance of the three major stock indexes has been in the doldrums, getting out of the shock and falling trend, making the overall market sentiment a little cautious. How to operate? Industry experts and institutions generally suggest that at present, under the background of relatively loose liquidity in China, it is not appropriate to worry too much. With the full release of market risks, investors can choose to hold shares for the holidays.
How to grasp the investment opportunities around the Spring Festival this year? Which stocks are more comfortable to hold during the holiday? According to the statistics of historical data, the reporter of Securities Daily found that in the past 10 years (2012-2021), the industries with high rising probability in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival are medicine and biology, power equipment, electronics and national defense and military industry.
pharmaceutical biology
the probability of rising around the Spring Festival in recent 10 years is 95%
There has always been a saying of "drinking and taking medicine" in the capital market. The potential consumption attributes of pharmaceutical stocks and Baijiu stocks are virtually the pronoun of the growth and defensive coexistence of the market.
Recently, the pharmaceutical market has been better than the Baijiu market. Statistics show that from the situation of individual stocks recommended by institutions in recent 30 days, a total of 96 stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological sector have been given optimistic ratings such as "buy" or "overweight" by institutions. The number of individual stocks recommended ranks first in 31 categories of Shenwan industry, accounting for 22.54% of the constituent stocks of the industry.
The reporter further combed and found that the market performance of the pharmaceutical and biological sector can be called an "evergreen" of a shares. During the ups and downs of the market in the past 10 years (2012-2021), the market performance in the five trading days before the Spring Festival maintained a total victory in the "ten wars", all of which were positive. The market performance in the five trading days after the Spring Festival is "nine out of ten", and the comprehensive rise probability in the first and last 10 trading days is as high as 95%, ranking first in the list of increase probability of 31 Shenwan industries.
Li Yifeng, chief researcher of Guangzhou pebble investment pharmaceutical industry, told the Securities Daily that the pharmaceutical and biological industry has always been in the golden track in the capital markets outside China. If the investment perspective is extended, the pharmaceutical industry ranks first in the yield of US stocks in recent 60 years. Over the past 20 years, medicine has been the industry with the largest concentration of bull stocks.
As of January 21, among the 426 constituent stocks in the A-share biomedical sector, 387 stocks rose relative to the issue price, accounting for 90.85%. Among them, Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) increased by more than 13000% relative to the issue price. 75 stocks, including Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , increased by more than 1000% relative to the issue price, which can be described as a "gathering of bull stocks".
As of January 21, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector was as high as 44.37 times, much higher than 18.72 times of a shares. Cao Bo, a medical consultant of an enterprise, told reporters that from the perspective of historical quantile, the relative valuation of the pharmaceutical and biological sector has exceeded the level of the market in 2015, and the historical quantile is 97%, which is very close to the highest position in history.
The incidence rate of chronic diseases in the medical and biological sectors has not been weakened, especially in the pharmaceutical and biological enterprises that focus on innovation, talent shows itself. Chen Mengjie, chief policy analyst at Guangdong Securities Research Institute, believes that the long-term investment value of medical bio sectors has not been weakened due to the aging of population, the increasing incidence of chronic diseases and the continuous growth of medical expenditure. At present, the market is gradually entering the structural stage of sector rotation and obvious differentiation of strength.
Hu Po, fund manager of private placement network, also believes that the pharmaceutical and biological sector is still in a good investment track. In the long run, personal medical expenditure continues to grow, and the scale of the industry is expanding. At present, the market is mainly cautious, and the style has also been switched between high and low. As the Spring Festival is approaching, investors prefer a prudent strategy, and some pharmaceutical innovation stocks are expected to receive capital attention.
Chen Mengjie said that in the innovative medicine sector, it is recommended that investors pay attention to two core logics. First, focus on pharmaceutical enterprises with strong certainty, high safety margin and active transition and innovation. These enterprises have the characteristics of low valuation level, high dividend rate and good growth; Second, focus on FIC enterprises with rich R & D pipelines and high expectation of drugs going to sea. With the gradual implementation of enterprise product pipelines, the future profits of enterprises are expected to be greatly improved.
power equipment
in the past 10 years, the average increase in the first five days of the Spring Festival was 2.73%
According to historical data, in the five trading days before the Spring Festival and five trading days after the Spring Festival in recent 10 years, the power equipment sector rose 10 times and 8 times respectively. On the whole, the rise rate in the above range reached 90%. Among them, the average increase in the five trading days before the Spring Festival in recent 10 years was 2.73%, and the average increase in the five trading days after the Spring Festival in recent 10 years was 2.64%.
From the perspective of news, since January, good news has come from many sub sectors of the power equipment industry. On January 5, the national energy administration, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the national Hometown Village revitalization Bureau jointly issued the notice on the implementation opinions on accelerating the transformation and development of rural energy and promoting rural revitalization. The notice pointed out that by 2025, a number of green and low-carbon pilot projects of rural energy will be built, and the proportion of wind power, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , biomass energy and geothermal energy in rural energy will continue to increase.
On January 13, the 2022 work conference of the state grid was held in Beijing. It was mentioned that the overall requirements of the work of the State Grid in 2022 focus on ensuring power supply and promoting energy transformation, focusing on the direction of "ensuring supply and security" of the power system, relying on key projects, serving new energy development and improving the digital level of the power network. It is estimated that the investment plan in 2022 will maintain an increase of 6% - 8% compared with the plan of the previous year.
In addition to the positive news that can bring power to the market performance of the power equipment industry, the prosperity of the industry fundamentals is also one of the important decisive factors.
Just take the photovoltaic equipment sector and power grid equipment sector in the power equipment industry as an example. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that the annual installed capacity of PV in China is expected to reach 50gw driven by the rush to install PV by users at the end of the year and the centralized grid connection of some supporting projects. Dongguan Securities said that in January, the overall operating rate of the photovoltaic industry chain improved month on month, and the slight rise in the price of silicon wafers also reflected the impact of the boost in the demand for goods during the Spring Festival. The prosperity of the photovoltaic equipment sector was high before and after the Spring Festival.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that under the background of double carbon, the new power system is expected to usher in structural opportunities, and the directions of UHV, intelligent distribution network and energy storage are expected to benefit. In terms of total investment, the total investment of the State Grid during the "14th five year plan" period is expected to increase steadily (an annual average of 470 billion yuan - 500 billion yuan), and the prosperity of the power grid equipment sector will increase steadily.
As of January 21, 53 listed companies in the power equipment industry have announced their performance forecasts for 2021, of which 48 companies, including beiteri, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Guodian Nanjing Automation Co.Ltd(600268) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) , have achieved performance forecasts, accounting for more than 90% of the total number of companies that have announced performance forecasts in the industry. From the proportion of forecasts, the prosperity has increased significantly.
How do investors grasp the investment opportunities in this industry? Xia Fengguang, fund manager of private placement paipai network, told the Securities Daily: "the power equipment industry is in harmony with the times, places and people. The explosive development of the new energy vehicle industry chain in the past two years has given great impetus to relevant listed companies, giving birth to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) And other industry giants. With the advent of the global low-carbon era, it also provides long-term development opportunities for photovoltaic equipment and other sectors in the power equipment industry. In the future, power grid energy storage will become a new development highlight, and each subdivision leading company deserves attention. "
In the last 30 days, the institution has also been very optimistic about individual stocks in the power equipment industry. Specifically, a total of 87 stocks have been given optimistic ratings such as "buy" or "overweight", accounting for more than 30%.
However, judging from the recent market performance, since this year (as of January 21), the power equipment sector has fallen by 8.77%, However, Long Hao, chairman of Jinding assets, told the Securities Daily: "The recent adjustment will bring higher cost performance to the valuation of the industry after the Spring Festival. It is optimistic that the downward price of the supply chain of the power equipment industry will drive the increase in the installed demand of photovoltaic and wind energy equipment. With the increasing proportion of clean energy power generation, the construction of new power system will increase the demand for power grid digitization, power grid intelligence, UHV, energy storage and other power supporting equipment The long-term investment logic of the equipment industry will continue. "
electronic industry
two factors support the sector or realize excess return
Looking back at the data of the past 10 years, it is found that in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years, the electronics industry rose 9 times, with a rise probability of 90%. Among them, the industry has increased by an average of 3.25% in the five trading days before the Spring Festival in recent 10 years and 4.83% in the five trading days after the Spring Festival in recent 10 years.
In fact, although the electronics industry has fallen by 8.31% this year, there are still 52 stocks whose share prices rose during the period. The cumulative increase of Shenzhen Absen Optoelectronic Co.Ltd(300389) and Yes Optoelectronics (Group) Co.Ltd(002952) exceeded 20%, and the cumulative increase of Suzhou Gyz Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(688260) , Hubei Jiuzhiyang Infrared System Co.Ltd(300516) , Xiamen Xindeco Ltd(000701) , Daheng New Epoch Technology Inc(600288) , Jiangsu Lettall Electronic Co.Ltd(603629) , Ninestar Corporation(002180) also exceeded 10%.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Daily, "In recent 10 years, the electronic industry often has a relatively obvious' calendar effect 'before and after the Spring Festival, and the probability of outperforming the index is large: on the one hand, because the prosperity of the industry has continued to improve in recent years, supporting localization and realizing independent control of the industrial chain have brought growth space to the industry; on the other hand, before and after the Spring Festival is often the time window for the pre disclosure of annual reports The year-round high outlook of the industry has brought high growth in performance. Good performance reports make the electronics industry prone to excess returns. "
It can be seen that the performance of Listed Companies in the electronics industry is generally good, driving the industry boom to continue to rise. Statistics show that among the 360 listed companies in the electronics industry, 246 companies achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit in the first three quarters of 2021, accounting for nearly 70%. Up to now, 67 listed companies in the electronics industry have disclosed the performance forecast of the annual report in 2021, and 57 companies are expecting good performance, accounting for more than 80%. Among them, the net profits of 30 companies during the reporting period are expected to achieve a year-on-year maximum growth rate of 100% or more.
Recently, northbound funds have also begun to rush into some electronic stocks for fund-raising. Statistics show that up to now, 167 electronic stocks have been held by northbound funds, and 50 stocks are favored by northbound funds. During the period, 13 annual pre hi stocks, including Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Phichem Corporation(300398) , Mls Co.Ltd(002745) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , were pursued by northbound funds.
How to grasp the investment opportunities in the electronics industry around the Spring Festival this year, Chen Li said, "Since the beginning of this year, the electronics industry has fallen sharply, mainly because the US bond yield has continued to rise in recent months, which has formed a certain suppression on the high valuation sector. At the current time node, the electronics industry has entered a relatively reasonable range. At the same time, under China's relatively clear monetary and fiscal policies, it is not appropriate to take the US bond yield as an anchor object excessively. There are certain investment opportunities in the electronics industry 。”
"The end of the year and the Spring Festival holiday are the peak consumption season of electronic products. The increase of phased demand will boost market sentiment. The electronic industry is expected to usher in trading opportunities around the Spring Festival." Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, told reporters.
Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, said, "at present, the valuation of the electronic industry is at the historical median level, and it is easy to get out of the market under the catalysis of growth themes such as digital economy. We focus on the listed companies of smart cars and VR devices downstream."
Recently, the 2021 annual report of some electronic industries has attracted great attention from institutions. Statistics show that the number of electronic companies rated "buy" or "overweight" or above by the agency in the past 30 days reached 95, accounting for nearly 30%. Among them, 31 annual report pre hi shares were praised by the institution, Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) and other three annual report pre hi shares were recommended by the institution more than 10 times, which is worthy of investors' attention.
national defense industry
institutions are optimistic about their long-term investment opportunities
According to historical data, in the five trading days before the Spring Festival and five trading days after the Spring Festival in recent 10 years, the national defense and military industry sector rose 8 times and 9 times respectively. Among them, the average increase in the five trading days before the Spring Festival in recent 10 years was 2.19%, and the average increase in the five trading days after the Spring Festival in recent 10 years was 3.31%.
Since the beginning of this year, there has been a major correction in the national defense and military industry sector, with a cumulative decline of 14.67% during the period, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period (down 3.22%), and more than 80% of the stocks in the sector underperformed the market. However, there are still strong stocks in the sector, of which the cumulative increases during Asian Star Anchor Chain Co.Ltd.Jiangsu(601890) and Cssc Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600072) were 7.32% and 6.14% respectively.
With regard to the recent market performance of the national defense industry, Liu Cunxin, an assistant fund manager of the private placement network, who was interviewed by the reporter of Securities Daily, said that under the joint action of two factors, the recent sharp correction of the military industry sector was caused: on the one hand, the military industry sector performed well in the second and third quarters of last year, making the market's expectation of the performance of the military industry sector too high, Superimposed the motivation of some companies to smooth profits, resulting in the performance of some military industry sectors falling short of expectations; On the other hand, the performance of military enterprises has been fully reflected in the stock price, and the style of the recent market is also changing to undervalued defensive varieties.
Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin wealth investment fund, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that the boom of the military industry is determined. After continuous decline releases short-term risks, we can pay attention to bargain hunting.
In terms of performance, as of the closing on January 21, 13 listed companies in the national defense and military industry sector had issued performance forecasts for 2021, of which 11 companies were expected to enjoy their annual performance (including pre increase, slight increase, loss reversal and profit renewal), accounting for more than 80%. Among them, Huaqiang technology and Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) are expected to have a year-on-year growth of 92.96% and 90.00% respectively in 2021.
As for the investment opportunities of the military industry before the Spring Festival, Qin Hong, a consulting analyst of jinbailin, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that there are two main reasons for being optimistic about the investment opportunities of the national defense and military industry: on the one hand, considering that advanced military equipment is gradually being installed; On the other hand, taking into account the gradual tendency of military expenditure towards information and advanced equipment, the performance trend of the military industry unit can still be expected. Therefore, the current weak trend has laid a foreshadowing for the trend after the Spring Festival, which is worth looking forward to.
Wang Chunxiu, manager of dongtuo investment fund, believes that the fundamentals of the military industry have not changed, and the short-term adjustment does not change the long-term investment value of the sector. Benefiting from the acceleration of national defense and military modernization, the prosperity of the industry continued to rise, the profits of the sector accelerated under the expansion of production capacity and the resonance of supply and demand, and a number of big bull stocks emerged in the secondary market. With the decline of the valuation of the sector, the investment value of the industry is highlighted. It is suggested that investors focus on the subdivided leading enterprises with core competitiveness in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
Liu Cunxin believes that in the long run, the market's investment logic in the military industry sector is quietly changing, gradually shifting from the original cycle logic to the growth logic. In the future, under the background of the increase of military expenditure, policy support, military equipment upgrading and geopolitical tension, there will be significant adjustments in the military industry in the near future, On the contrary, it provides a better investment opportunity for the long-term layout of the military industry sector.
In the last 30 days, some institutions have expressed positive views on national defense and military industry stocks. Specifically, 36 stocks have been given positive ratings such as "buy" or "overweight", accounting for more than 30%. Among them, Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) has received positive ratings the most, 6 times, Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) Six stocks such as Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) have received favorable ratings for more than three times.
