Affected by the tense relationship between supply and demand, the price of nickel tin metal has soared all the way since this year, with both futures and spot hitting a record high. Many listed companies have deeply arranged relevant industries, and their performance is expected to achieve a leap.
supply and demand imbalance, nickel and tin prices soared
In recent days, Shanghai nickel and Shanghai tin futures prices have both Broken historical records and reached a new high since listing. On January 21, the main price of Shanghai nickel reached 179780 yuan / ton, up 20.50% from the lowest price of 149220 yuan / ton this year; On January 20, the main price of Shanghai tin reached 340760 yuan / ton, up 18.30% from the lowest price of 288040 yuan / ton this year.
In terms of spot price, according to the data of business agency, on January 20, 1# nickel price was reported at 176350 yuan / ton, up more than 16.75% compared with October 23; The price of 1# tin ingot was 334725 yuan / ton, up 15.52% from October 23.
Affected by the news that the power plant of dagongshan nickel smelting project in Myanmar, the largest nickel production base in Myanmar, was bombed, resulting in the forced shutdown of production, the tight supply of nickel ore in the traditional rainy season in the Philippines, and Indonesia may begin to impose export tariffs on ferronickel and pig iron in 2022, nickel prices further rose.
Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) Bai Qiong, nickel analyst of stainless steel division, told the Securities Daily, "global inflation, double carbon guidance and promotion of new energy industry are the basis of high nickel price. The recent rapid rise is mainly led by low inventory of refined nickel and recovery of industrial fundamentals, superimposed with macro positive and resonance of non-ferrous metals, and a large influx of funds has pushed nickel price to a new high."
In addition, nickel is an important raw material for a variety of batteries and is widely used in portable equipment, electric vehicles, energy storage batteries and other fields. At present, the nickel consumption in the battery field accounts for only 5%. However, due to the rapid development of electric vehicle industry, industrial energy storage and other industries, nickel has great demand potential in the battery field.
Chaos Tiancheng Research Institute believes that "the spot of pure nickel is still tight, and the Indonesian policy has brought many uncertainties to the release of supply; the production of stainless steel has declined, but there is still a demand for replenishment before the festival, the production of nickel sulfate has suffered losses, and the quotation is expected to rise; the global inventory continues to decline, the premium is still at a high level in the same period, and the nickel is expected to run stronger in the short term."
In terms of tin metal, the business society pointed out that the tin market will go up unilaterally in 2021, and the logic of maintaining the price rise for the whole year is that the supply side is tight. With the recovery of the global economy, the demand for 3C products, automobiles and new energy vehicles at the downstream terminals is relatively strong, and the downstream demand is better, which once again benefits the tin market and promotes the further strengthening of tin consumption.
"Throughout the whole year of 2021, a series of problems such as epidemic situation, environmental protection and energy continue to disturb tin prices. Tight supply almost dominated the trend of tin prices in 2021. There was a unilateral upward trend throughout the year, and out of a bull market." Ding Wenqiang, a tin analyst at the copper, lead, zinc and precious metals division, told the Securities Daily, "The recent record high prices are mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, the tight supply of tin mines in Myanmar, which makes it difficult to improve the capacity utilization of smelters, the tight supply of spot goods, and the large water rise pattern of tin ingots. In addition, some smelters in Yunnan, Jiangxi and other places have plans to reduce production during the Spring Festival. The resumption time of production is basically after the Lantern Festival, and the demand for goods preparation before the downstream Festival is OK. At present, the supply and demand is wrong Under the pattern of matching, it drives the bull sentiment, and the tin price rises steadily. "
For the future development, Hou Yahui, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo futures, believes that, "Tin supply is expected to increase by 5% in 2022. Overseas refineries resume to alleviate some supply gaps, and the overall supply and demand gap may narrow. The supply and demand gap in the global tin market will narrow from 13000 tons in 2021 to about 10000 tons. It is expected that the supply and demand structure of the tin market will continue to be tight in 2022, which will support the operation of tin prices in a high range."
At present, the global gap of nickel and tin is in a large state. Because of the mismatch between supply and demand caused by the epidemic, the shortage is still the main tone of non-ferrous metals such as nickel, tin and so on.
in depth layout of several listed companies
Affected by the news catalysis and the rising price of nickel and tin, the listed companies with in-depth layout in relevant industries ushered in positive results, and their performance is expected to achieve a leap. Lin Boqiang, President of China Energy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told the Securities Daily, "the price rise of non-ferrous metal nickel and tin is good for the upstream industry. However, it will increase the cost pressure on the downstream industry. If the downstream industry cannot transfer the cost pressure to consumers, it will reduce the profit space of the downstream industry."
In terms of nickel industry, Bai Qiong believes that, "The rise of nickel price has both advantages and disadvantages for the current industry. It can boost the prices of nickel ore and ferronickel at the raw material end, but for the downstream stainless steel and new energy industries, it is more the profit reduction caused by the increase of cost. At present, the most concern in the market is that the rise of nickel price will widen the price difference between nickel and ferronickel, so as to promote the development of Indonesia's transformation of ferronickel into high matte nickel."
Listed companies such as Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , Inner Mongolia Xingye Mining Co.Ltd(000426) , Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) are involved in the nickel industry. Taking Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) as an example, the company has a world-class nickel cobalt mining project - Ruimu nickel cobalt project, which can basically meet the needs of stable operation for 40 years and doubling production capacity for 20 years. In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue of laterite nickel cobalt project was 3.19 billion, and the total profit was 1.22 billion yuan, with a large year-on-year increase. As a benchmark project of laterite nickel mine in the world, the project will continue to reach the production standard, full production and sales, and operate efficiently and stably under the condition of completing the annual overhaul of two high-pressure acid leaching production series.
In terms of tin industry, Ding Wenqiang said, "The price of tin continues to rise, and the mining at the upstream end is profitable. For the downstream demand, the main application terminals of tin are integrated circuits, semiconductors, 3C electronics, photovoltaic welding strips and other fields, and the cost of solder accounts for a relatively small proportion, so the high price will not restrain too much downstream demand. In the long run, the new infrastructure represented by photovoltaic and new energy is expected to promote the demand for tin, and tin can be expected in the future. ”
Listed companies such as Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co.Ltd(002378) , Sichuan Western Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600139) deeply layout the tin industry. Taking Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) as an example, the company owns the whole industrial chain of tin exploration, mining, beneficiation, smelting and deep processing. Since 2005, the company's tin production and sales volume has ranked first in the world for 15 years, with a Chinese market share of 47.70% and a global market share of 22.58%. At present, the company has successfully developed and applied hematite iron removal process technology, built the first zinc smelter in China using hematite iron removal process technology, solved the technical problem of clean and efficient utilization of high iron zinc concentrate, and filled the gap of zinc smelting technology in China; We have developed and formulated a series of production technologies and analysis methods for tin materials and tin chemical industry, and the overall technology is at the world leading level.
"Listed companies in related industries should seize market opportunities, timely promote project construction, expand production capacity, and promote industrial upgrading and technological transformation while making rich achievements." Lin Boqiang said.
