Preface:
For steady growth, real estate infrastructure is certainly the biggest grab and increment, but we should also see the highlights of other new structures. Unilateral bet on steady growth is an important beta, but it is also important to grasp the industrial alpha of certainty. Investors should grasp both hands and “fine” both hands.
We will improve our understanding and quantitative measurement of steady growth in the form of a series of reports. In a series of “ten possible grasping points for steady growth – policy tracking, industry direction and volume estimation”, 10 important grasping points are introduced in detail. In this report, we further sort out the key points in the “special plan”.
According to the deployment of the national Standing Committee on January 10, “at present, 44 special plans have been basically prepared, printed and implemented one after another. We should base ourselves on the present, focus on the long term, and vigorously and orderly promote the implementation of the 14th five year plan.”.
So what is a special plan? What are the objectives of the special plan? This report combs in detail the special plans that have been issued so far, and has an overall understanding of them, so as to improve the understanding of the starting point of steady growth.
(I) what is a special plan?
Under the current national planning system, after the preparation of the 14th five year plan, three types of plans, namely national special plan, national regional plan and national spatial plan, will be further prepared. Among them, the national special plan is used to refine and implement the strategic tasks in specific fields proposed in the 14th five year plan. For example, the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy implements the “part V – Chapter 15: creating new advantages of digital economy” in the 14th five year plan
Proposed tasks and related major projects.
(II) what are the key points of national special planning?
The focus in the special plan can be further divided into four categories.
The first category: the government directly or indirectly increases investment. The biggest feature is the strong inverse cycle attribute and certain subjective initiative in schedule. This is the focus of attention this year. It includes two new and one heavy industries (new infrastructure, new urbanization, transportation and water conservancy and other major projects), energy revolution, making up for weaknesses, security, scientific and technological innovation and other fields. For the estimation of the volume of some subdivided industries, please refer to the report ten possible grasp of [Huachuang macro] steady growth – policy tracking, industry direction and volume estimation.
The second category: the government guides it to maintain rapid growth. The biggest feature is that the medium and long-term prosperity is high, and the government creates a good development environment through policy support. Specifically include:
1) according to the plan, the expected growth rate of consumption during the 14th Five Year Plan period is: new energy vehicles > 20% > express delivery >
Sports Industry > 10% > rural e-commerce > cross border e-commerce > online retail > air passenger transport > social retail > e-commerce > passenger travel > freight. 2) Growth expectation of manufacturing and Information Industry: Big Data > industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) > 20% > software industry > information and communication industry > 10%. 3) Industries expected to increase the proportion of added value include: core industries of digital economy, strategic emerging industries, intellectual property intensive industries, sports industry, cultural industry, tourism industry, etc. 4) According to the plan, more large-scale companies are expected to be born in the fields of medical equipment, software and intelligent manufacturing. 5) During the 14th Five Year Plan period, another feature of the industrial level is higher digitization rate, higher market satisfaction rate and more specialized and special new central enterprises. For example, the cloud rate of enterprise industrial equipment is expected to increase to 30% from 13.1% in 2020.
Category III: more stable stocks, and the government promotes its structural adjustment. For example, in the field of industrial explosion, it is expected that the top 10 will account for more than 60% by 2025; The industrial concentration in the field of raw materials has been further improved, and the production capacity of crude steel and cement has only been reduced but not increased. For example, medical insurance expenditure, by 2025, it is expected that the centralized procurement of drugs / high-value medical consumables will exceed 500 varieties / 5 categories respectively. Others include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.
The fourth category: the government mainly responds passively. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of social zero is expected to be 5%, and the average annual growth rate of goods import and export is expected to be 2%.
(III) details of 44 national special plans
We divide these plans into nine chapters according to the supply side and demand side, focusing on the more specific partial quantitative objectives in these plans.
Risk tip: steady growth measures exceeded expectations.
