Core view
International crude oil prices continued to rise this week, with international oil prices approaching us $90 / barrel, US crude oil inventories falling continuously, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East breaking out. We are still optimistic about the rise of international oil prices. At this stage, the policy that raw material energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption is conducive to the approval of projects with high raw material energy consumption of leading enterprises with cost competitive advantages in the chemical industry, especially upstream chemical enterprises with coal and petroleum as raw materials. In the future, the long-term development space of subdivided leading companies in the chemical industry will be opened. At the same time, we see that the international crude oil price continues to rise sharply, and the rapid recovery of global crude oil demand has driven the rise of international oil price. We are optimistic that China’s large private refining and chemical companies will benefit from the performance elasticity of rising crude oil price and the low-cost comparative advantage competitiveness of coal chemical enterprises. We mainly recommend [ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ], [ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ] China’s private refining and chemical leaders [ Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ], [ Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ], and [ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ] representative enterprises in China’s chemical industry. Recently, due to the implementation of relevant policies such as carbon emission and the rise of international oil prices, there is a strong demand for biodiesel abroad. At the same time, China’s biodiesel with waste oil as raw material can enjoy the incentive policy of double points. In the future, it is expected to replace biodiesel with palm oil and soybean oil as raw materials in the European market, with huge market space, We are optimistic about the continuous expansion of production capacity of Chinese biodiesel enterprises and the profit expansion trend of products in the future.
In the current market environment, we suggest to focus on high growth companies with strong certainty, such as Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co.Ltd(688196) (biodiesel), Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) (pesticide technical drugs and preparations), Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) (bio based chemicals and daily chemical products) and Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) (aramid).
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are butadiene (33.12%), aniline (11.17%), octanol (10.81%), butyl acrylate (10.37%) and dimethyl carbonate (6.55%); The top five chemical product prices fell this week were vinyl acetate (- 9.84%), R32 (- 7.08%), light soda (- 5.22%), glyphosate (- 3.99%), ethylene oxide (- 3.29%).
Rise and fall of price difference: methanol (190.16%), butyl acrylate (88.55%), hard foam polyether (51.50%), soft foam polyether (47.46%) and epichlorohydrin (glycerol method) (45.02%) were the top five in the price difference of chemical products this week; The top five price differentials of chemical products this week were carbon black N330 (- 58.07%), carbon black N220 (- 36.44%), R32 (- 30.14%), butadiene (- 29.10%) and PMMA (- 27.48%).
Risk tips
International crude oil prices fluctuate sharply; Poor overseas epidemic control led to a lower than expected recovery.
