Since 2022, the market balance has tended to underestimate the value varieties, but the sound of bottom reading of high growth track has also come from time to time. Market participants said that the excess return of undervalued varieties essentially comes from valuation repair, and the continuous rise is constrained by many conditions; The comparative advantage of high growth track will be verified with the disclosure of financial reports. After the periodic repair of the undervalued sector, the investment opportunities are mainly in the growth direction of the small hard technology market.
limited room for valuation improvement
Recently, undervalued varieties have shown excess returns, behind which is the implementation of a series of stable growth policies.
In terms of monetary policy, since the end of 2021, the central bank has successively reduced the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, the bid winning interest rate for medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and reverse repurchase operations, as well as the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR). In terms of fiscal policy, the Ministry of finance has issued a new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan to all localities in advance, and will promote the issuance and use of the limit in the first quarter. At the same time, Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian and other provinces have successively introduced steady growth policies.
In the past few years, whenever the difference between the undervalued varieties and the main line of the market at that time has widened to the extreme, the undervalued style will erupt, but it is difficult to say its sustainability. So, how to treat this round of undervalued market?
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that this round of undervalued market benefited from policy stimulus and triggered valuation repair, but the market is highly dependent on performance, and the valuation improvement space of the sector itself is limited. And once the sector increases too much, it is easy to overdraw the performance growth of the whole year.
There are also views that the environment of A-Shares in 2014 is similar to that at present, which is of reference significance. Zhang Qiyao, chief strategic analyst of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , said that the undervalued blue chip style represented by financial and real estate infrastructure in 2014 was fully dominant. On the one hand, thanks to the monetary and credit environment and real estate policies, the financial and real estate sector hit the bottom and rebounded; On the other hand, it also complies with the demand of the market to readjust the structure and balance risk exposure after the full interpretation of the structural bull market represented by the gem from the end of 2012 to February 2014.
growing style and cost performance
As for the style conversion between underestimation and high growth, there is another possibility that the two styles coexist and are in a dynamic balance. At present, the risk appetite of the large financial sector has been significantly improved, but under the loose monetary policy and liquidity environment, the valuation elasticity of growth stocks is also expected to benefit.
After nearly two months of adjustment, the valuation of growth stocks is no longer the main problem, and the cost performance begins to appear.
According to Yan Kaiwen, a strategic analyst at Huaxin securities, CITIC growth and CITIC stability represent the current two styles. At present, CITIC growth is at the valuation quantile of 8.34% in the past year, while CITIC stability is at the valuation quantile of 85% in the past year. The relative valuation quantile advantage of growth stocks has been highlighted. “From the profit estimation of the two styles in 2021, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of CITIC’s growth style is significantly better than that of CITIC’s stable style.” Kevin Yan said.
Several easing cycles in the history of resumption of trading, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) strategy team said that the current macro environment of “wide money and stable credit” will not change the dominant style of small and medium Cap Growth of a shares. The impact of the easing cycle on the market comes more from its changes in industry fundamentals and market liquidity, which does not reverse the growth prosperity of small and medium-sized stocks.
For the layout time point of high growth track, there are great differences in the market. Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) believes that although there are still valuation disturbances in the future, they do not constitute a trend suppressing factor, because the determinant of the high growth track is the sustainability of high performance growth. It is suggested that the layout on the left should be appropriate before the Spring Festival holiday.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the sharp decline in growth style may come to an end, but there is no need to rush to copy the bottom. The layout opportunity may be from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter.
grasp the spring Market
Combined with the current macro environment and market structure, how to layout the future market?
Lin Sha, a strategic analyst at Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) , said that at present, the industries with policy expectations and improved fundamentals are the main line with the strongest certainty, including the infrastructure industry jointly pointed by macro and micro data, and pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities of undervalued industries.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said that after the phased repair of the undervalued sector, the opportunity is mainly in the growth direction of the small hard technology market, the relative valuation is not high, the funds are not crowded, and the industrial logic of investment expansion in emerging industries deserves attention.
The adjustment at the beginning of 2022 is mainly concentrated in leading companies, and the impact on small cap stocks in each sector is not large. The differentiation of gem valuation has reached a new low in recent three years, which also reflects the continuous diffusion of market preference from high premium large cap stocks to long-term depressed small cap stocks. At the same time, from the historical data, the current valuation of high boom industries is not too high, and the valuation risk has been greatly released.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that the resistance to the improvement of market valuation in the first quarter was the smallest, and the time node when the market started in spring was the moment. The spring market should follow the deductive path of the science and technology industry cycle, especially pay attention to the investment opportunities in the TMT field. It is suggested to pay attention to two configuration clues. First, the digital economy supported by the policy is expected to become the main trading line of this round of spring Market in the subdivided fields such as 5g communication, big data center, Internet of things and semiconductor chips. Second, software development, it services, optical images and other cost-effective sub industries under the background of meta universe and automotive intelligence.
