According to the exchange data, as of the closing on January 19, the financing balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell below 1.7 trillion yuan for the first time in nearly two months. The entry rhythm of leveraged funds has slowed down since the beginning of the year, but the financing balance is still at a high level since 2021.
Overall, the balance of margin trading in the two cities has shown a slow downward trend recently. Data show that as of January 19, the financing balance of Shanghai Stock Exchange reported 892.009 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.181 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day; The financing balance of Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported as 806.761 billion yuan, a decrease of 67 million yuan compared with the previous trading day; The two cities totaled 1698.770 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.248 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day, and the financing transaction volume was 141.178 billion yuan, accounting for 13.25% of the transaction volume of a shares, including 68.965 billion yuan of financing purchase, 72.213 billion yuan of financing repayment, and 13.25% of transaction activity.
Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market as a whole has been in a state of shock adjustment. According to the historical experience of a shares, after the market is greatly adjusted, there will often be subsequent style switching, and the stock allocation of financiers will also change. According to the financing balance data of the past month, financiers favor medicine, biology, media and computers, while cyclical stocks, real estate and electronic industries encounter a significant outflow of funds.
The tepid performance of most cyclical stocks before and after new year’s day has eroded the shareholding confidence of financiers. From December 20 last year to January 19 this year, the financing of basic chemical industry sold a net 4.141 billion yuan. Non ferrous metals were also sold by financing customers, with a net financing sales of 3.737 billion yuan.
From December 20 last year to January 19 this year, the financing balance of the media industry increased by 3.883 billion yuan, and the net financing purchase increased by 3.346 billion yuan. Analysts believe that the “14th five year plan for digital economy development” recently issued by the State Council points out that it will support the cultivation of new business forms of digital economy. In addition, the 2022 spring festival film is about to kick off, and the “local new year” mode continued this year is expected to create better box office results.
As of January 19, the financing balance of the pharmaceutical and biological industry had reached 153.13 billion yuan, an increase of 1.87% compared with 150.31 billion yuan on December 20, 2021. During this period, the net purchase amount of financing reached 4.299 billion yuan.
Minsheng Securities believes that after more than a year of valuation digestion and industrial renewal iteration, many traditional tracks in the pharmaceutical sector have highlighted the allocation cost performance. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine track with obvious positive change trend at the bottom of the valuation, the innovative medicine track with clear industrial upgrading and sufficient adjustment, etc.
The trend of leveraged funds reflects the style switching trend of A-Shares to a certain extent. China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) analyst Wang Wulei believes that the recent style switching of the market is more caused by the change of overall risk appetite and the change of risk-free interest rate. In 2022, on the base of high profit growth in 2021, the profit growth rate of each sector is facing a downward adjustment, and the corresponding profit growth difference may also be narrowed. The current market timing model score remains cautious. Specifically, the current profit expectation and risk appetite are at a low level, and the liquidity score is at a neutral level. In the short term, investors are advised to appropriately reduce their equity positions and prevent adjustment risks.
