Today (January 21), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. There were occasional repetitions in the session and were quickly suppressed. On the whole, the three major A-share indexes showed a consistent downward pattern. From the disk, the industry and concept sector fell more or less, and the industry was good. The coal and lithium electricity concept of aviation and tourism sectors also showed a relatively low performance. The Baijiu and retail sales standards were good, and local money making effect was common.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that at present, due to the time node, the market is releasing the selling pressure in an orderly manner, and many varieties show some signs of oversold. From the operation point of view, investors still focus on wait-and-see, focusing on the undervalued varieties with good texture but recently killed by mistake, and wait for the market to stabilize spontaneously before making subsequent layout.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] coal
Kaiyuan Securities believes that the current winter coal consumption demand has entered the seasonal peak stage, the daily consumption and replenishment demand may gradually weaken before the Spring Festival, and the current rebound space of coal price may be limited; However, from the supply side, after the peak season comes to an end, the focus of the policy may be to ensure safety. The current ultra-high load production intensity is unsustainable, superimposed with the impact of Indonesia's coal export ban, there is a great possibility of tightening the supply after the Spring Festival.
Huabao securities mentioned that China's demand for coking coal is expected to decrease by 3% in 2022, and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people's livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia's import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long-term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the long-term logic, the cycle fluctuation of the coal industry will be weakened and the profit space will be stable. In the long run, the limited factors of coal supply are still, the bottleneck of supply growth is obvious, the enthusiasm of coal enterprises to invest in new mines is weak, and the economy is poor, the long construction cycle of new production capacity and complex approval procedures restrict the growth of coal production capacity, The dual carbon background determines that the coal supply will remain stable, and Sanxi and Xinjiang regions with excellent resource endowment will be strong. Enterprises with layout in such regions will continue to benefit from the process of increasing resource concentration. At the same time, the stability of coal price is very important to the healthy development of the whole industry, the periodicity of the industry will be weakened and the profit stability will be enhanced, The good cash flow situation of coal enterprises in recent years has also laid a solid foundation for the in-depth development of some coal enterprises to new energy, new materials and industries.
In the short and medium term, investment opportunities in the coal sector are prominent. The policy of increasing coal production and ensuring supply is expected to exit after the coal price is stable. Superimposed on the arduous task of six guarantees and six stabilities of macro-economy in 2022, the phased and regional economic stimulus policies may further stimulate the improvement of the enthusiasm of upstream resource products procurement and promote the investment sentiment and return on investment of the coal sector.
In addition, the transformation and development has become a highlight of coal enterprises, and power coal will face the pattern of double increase in supply and demand in the future to achieve a basic balance; Coking coal sector may have both supply and demand decline in the future; The coke sector may achieve a tight balance between supply and demand on the basis of further supply contraction. As the basic energy, coal still plays the role of ballast in the process of energy structure transformation. On the premise of providing a solid foundation for the rich cash flow of coal enterprises, they have transformed to the depth of the industrial chain and new energy and new materials on the basis of consolidating their main business, which has become a major investment highlight of the sector in the future. []
[Topic 2] lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Huaxin securities mentioned that the stock market at the end of the year pushed up the price of lithium salt and accelerated the upward trend. Lithium resources will still be in short supply in 2022, and enterprises mastering lithium resources will fully benefit. The lithium industry will usher in a dividend period of profit and market scale growth. Enterprises that master upstream resources and have sufficient capital and technology to expand production capacity will usher in a period of rapid development.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that recently, the market's concern about the rapid rise of lithium price and "insufficient lithium supply" led to a significant adjustment in the lithium sector. We judge that the new global lithium supply in 2022 can meet the growth of downstream demand, and lithium will not become a hard constraint on the development of electric vehicle industry. Subject to the development cycle of mineral resources, we expect lithium to become one of the most sustainable links in the power battery industry chain. At the same time, it is expected that the catalyst and rising power of the sector will shift from "price rise" to "performance", and the lithium sector will have strong valuation advantages and configuration value in 2022. We maintain the rating of "stronger than the big market" in the lithium industry, focus on recommending enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium mines and high degree of performance fulfillment, recommend Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , and suggest paying attention to Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) Shenzhen Hekeda Precision Cleaning Equipment Co.Ltd(002816) manufacturing.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that as the demand for new energy industry continues to improve in 2022, the central probability of lithium price will remain high in 2022. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually expects the price formation, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise's expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the long-term of lithium sector is "volume" rather than "price". We are still firmly optimistic about the allocation value of lithium sector in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to the performance forecast period in 2022.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that at the end of the year, the gap between supply and demand was enlarged again, and the price of cobalt and lithium accelerated upward. (1) Lithium: some manufacturers shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, the output of lithium carbonate fell for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to decline. In November, the retail of new energy vehicles and the production scheduling of cathode materials show that the demand side maintains a high boom and maintains a bullish view on lithium prices; (2) Nickel: the purchasing demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchasing enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: the precursor and four cobalt manufacturers may have some replenishment due to the adjustment of production plan. The rhythm of goods collection in the downstream years ago is gradually rising, and the superimposed head enterprises reduce output, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise. []
[Theme 3] Hotel and tourism
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that the digital transformation of the cultural tourism industry has accelerated and iterative innovation has been reborn. The baptism of the epidemic forced the text travel industry to accelerate the digital transformation, generate new formats in combination with the new online economy, and develop immersive, one-stop and personalized tourism products.
Rural tourism and ice and snow tourism are different from traditional tourism forms. They have a broad market and great development potential, and may become a new increment of the tourism industry in the future. In order to cope with the consumption change after the epidemic, cultural and tourism products need to carry out effective iterative innovation, improve service quality, accumulate and wait for the complete recovery of the cultural and tourism industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that for the hotel industry, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization of supply pattern and leading growth. Since this year, although several rounds of epidemics have led to a lower than expected pace of industrial recovery, the leading enterprises have continued to open stores rapidly, single hotels have continued to be cleared, and the logic of supply pattern optimization has been continuously verified. Looking forward to 2022, there is still much room for improvement in China's hotel chain rate and industry concentration compared with developed countries. We continue to be optimistic about the growth brought by the opening of leading stores against the trend and the upgrading of medium and high-end. The improvement of the epidemic in Europe is also expected to reduce the drag of overseas business on performance.
In addition, for tourism and scenic spots, the recovery trend remains unchanged or there are opportunities for reversal. With several rounds of epidemic disturbance since June, the progress of China's tourism recovery has shown a trend of high before and low after. Inter provincial travel and long-distance travel are still limited by epidemic prevention policies, and the performance of sector companies is generally under pressure. Looking forward to 2022, even if the demand side fluctuation is still inevitable, we still maintain confidence in the recovery trend. At the same time, the change of epidemic prevention policy is expected to ferment, which is also expected to give birth to the reversal opportunity of the sector market ahead of the fundamentals.
Dongguan Securities said that the industry will still be disturbed by the scattered epidemic in the short term, but China's strict prevention attitude towards covid-19 virus can effectively control the spread of the virus. There is no need to be too pessimistic about covid-19 virus and its variants. With the improvement of covid-19 vaccination and the promotion of therapeutic drug research and development, the influenza trend of covid-19 remains unchanged, The leisure service industry is expected to recover slowly in 2022. In the long run, the epidemic forced the industry to reshuffle and reduce supply. After the epidemic was basically controlled, the prosperity of the industry is expected to accelerate under the action of demand recovery. []
[theme IV ] aviation industry
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the State Council issued the "14th five year plan" for tourism development. The plan mentions improving the tourism open system, promoting inbound tourism in an orderly distribution, gradually developing outbound tourism and continuously promoting tourism exchanges and cooperation on the premise that the global epidemic is effectively controlled. The fourteenth five year plan for tourism proposes to choose the opportunity to promote inbound and outbound tourism, which echoes with the focus on restoring the international market from 2023 to 2025 in the fourteenth five year plan for civil aviation. The level of industrial policy has been ready for liberalization. Of course, the decision-makers need to weigh the pros and cons of liberalization. Once liberalization is selected, we believe that the loosening of China's epidemic prevention policy and the comprehensive and effective opening of the country are carried out simultaneously with a high probability.
Since the outbreak, the supply expansion of civil aviation has been suppressed at a very low level. In 2022, when the short-term epidemic prevention policy is still in a high pressure situation, the prosperity of civil aviation may still fluctuate. The introduction of aircraft fleet continues to be cautious and is expected to remain low for three consecutive years, while the theoretical demand continues to rise with economic growth. We believe that there is a large gap between supply and demand in civil aviation theory. When China's epidemic prevention policy is loosened and the country is restarted, the internal and external demand of civil aviation will recover, the supply structural pressure will be relieved, and the supply and demand will be reversed in an all-round way. In addition, the triple resonance of high seating rate, continuous fare reform and the release of backlog demand is expected to stimulate the substantial rise of ticket prices and the upward elasticity of civil aviation. Investment advice
Expectations come first before the boom. We believe that after the emergence of vaccines and specific drugs at the same time, it is only a matter of time for mankind to overcome the epidemic. When a strong boom is expected, the share price of aviation stocks is likely to remain active. We do not deny that the short-term prosperity of civil aviation may still be disturbed by the epidemic, but the prosperity of the industry is highly expected after the epidemic subsides completely. We believe that the boom brought about by the reversal of supply and demand is industrial, and large and small airlines will fully benefit. From the perspective of valuation, Pb valuation of airlines is near the historical center, and there is still room for improvement. We recommend Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) . []
[theme five ] Baijiu
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that for Baijiu enterprises, the Spring Festival accounts for a relatively high proportion of annual sales (about 40%), and the strictness of epidemic prevention and control will lead to the lack of consumption scenes in some provinces during the Spring Festival, thus affecting their Spring Festival sales. Henan has always been a major Baijiu consumption province. The national famous liquor and local strong brands are all in this layout. Under the influence of the epidemic, some of the liquor companies with a higher market share in Henan will be affected. However, other consumption provinces such as Sichuan, Anhui and Jiangsu are less affected by the epidemic. Baijiu enterprises are expected to differentiate in the first quarter. However, the impact of outbreaks in Henan and other markets on the industry as a whole is limited. At present, the fundamentals of the sector are still stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market dynamic sales will continue to improve; The recent sector correction also makes some targets enter the value layout range. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , regional sub high-end leaders (such as Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) ) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) .
From monthly data, Bohai Securities said that Baijiu still runs in the boom cycle and the price cycle of high-end Baijiu will be extended due to price control, and the fine products of public products have opened the price raising cycle. On the sector side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of mass products, with the opening of the price increase cycle, the upstream cost pressure may ease in the second half of the year. At present, the beer sector still has a relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission, followed by dairy products. The rise of raw milk in the upstream of dairy products has tended to ease. On the basis of good demand and early price increase, the performance is expected to accelerate the release. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Guosheng securities mentioned that the Spring Festival peak sales season is coming, famous liquor enterprises receive good payment, the peak season performance in terms of price is stable without obvious fluctuation, and some areas at the mobile sales end are still repeatedly affected by the epidemic. After the epidemic, terminal stores generally adopt the way of reducing inventory and increasing purchase frequency, and the real needs of consumers and terminal mobile sales still need to be observed, After new year's day, the delivery of terminal goods is accelerated, and the channel inventory of most famous liquor enterprises is benign. It is expected that the Spring Festival is still expected to achieve benign growth. []
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