According to the latest data released in December, the economic panorama of 21 years is basically determined. Looking back on 2021, the overall economic panorama is in line with expectations. However, under the triple pressure, the economy has been under pressure recently, and the downward trend of the economy in the second half of the year is still continuing. It is expected that the "steady growth" policy will continue to be laid out. Specifically:
In the 21st year, China gave consideration to epidemic prevention and control and economic development. GDP grew by 8.1%, higher than the set target of more than 6% in the government work report. China's economy gave a satisfactory answer;
Economic growth is still driven by domestic demand, and the three major demands have made positive contributions to economic growth;
In the middle of the year, the final consumption expenditure has a significant pull on economic growth, but it has been depressed month by month recently;
The overall investment data continued to decline, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment picked up slightly;
External demand remains strong, and short-term resilience is expected to continue;
The real estate investment situation is poor, the financing is limited, and the commencement and completion data are significantly worse.
On the whole, the overall economic panorama is in line with expectations, and it has been under pressure recently under the triple pressure. Under this background, we believe that the tone of "stable growth" has been clear, and the positive fiscal policy combined with the recent signal of "reducing reserve requirements and interest rates" by the central bank represents that the policy is gradually developing. However, combined with the relatively weak economic situation on the investment and consumption sides, the kinetic energy of economic growth is weak, In the future, policies will continue to strengthen the layout, so as to enhance the resilience of economic development and stabilize the macro-economic market.
The interest rate cut came as scheduled, and the "force" of monetary policy was on the way
The central bank announced that it would cut the Omo and MLF interest rates on January 17. This is the first time that the central bank has cut the MLF interest rate since April 15, 2020, not far from the RRR reduction in December 21. With the announcement of the central bank, the interest rate cut came as scheduled, further releasing the signal of "wide currency" and the "force" of monetary policy on the way. Moreover, the central bank's attitude is relatively "positive", indicating that the current key goal is stability, and the policy requirement is force (sufficient force, and the monetary policy toolbox should be opened larger, accurate and forward).
The inflection point of liquidity has been further confirmed, and the economic cycle has realized phase switching
The leading indicators enter the upward cycle and are cross confirmed with the credit pulse. This economic phenomenon is basically consistent with the explanation of the policy behavior of fiscal enthusiasm and monetary easing under the current tone of "stable growth". Compared with RRR reduction, the monetary policy easing signal released by interest rate reduction is stronger, because it directly affects the expenditure cost of financing subjects. Combined with historical experience, China's monetary policy Panasonic probably rose in stages in previous monetary policies. The release of monetary policy easing signal is expected to boost the short-term performance of the equity market to a certain extent. In the medium term, the "wide currency" has just begun, and the follow-up needs stronger policy signal and the help of "wide credit", so it is expected to see a more lasting performance of a shares. Combined with the similar range of historical and current economic environment, the growth and consumption sectors can often achieve better relative returns in the process of each round of liquidity easing increase.
Asset view: the short-term environment is still complex, and the main line of "stable growth" in the medium and long term is still expected
In terms of asset view, we still maintain the previous view: at present, the main line of the market has not been unified, and it may be tried repeatedly in the process of switching. The rise of individual stocks superimposed with the annual report forecast will disturb the sector, with strong long and short uncertainty. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant sectors benefiting from the "steady growth" tone in 2022, such as new and old infrastructure, building materials, etc; At the same time, undervalued financial real estate is also a good choice when the main line of the market hovers; In addition, the inflection point of the future pig cycle is about to appear, and the prosperity of relevant sectors is expected to be boosted in advance. In the medium term, it is expected that the monetary policy will continue to exert force, and the growth style will perform better under the loose cycle, followed by consumption.
Risk tips
The transmission of Omicron virus exceeded expectations; China's economic policy is weaker than expected; The risk of accelerating the pace of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
