Content summary
Macro environment: with the gradual transformation of “double carbon” from the call of some countries to the goal of major countries in the world, the significance of green and low carbon is reflected not only in the physical significance of solving environmental problems, but also in the socio-economic significance of promoting the transformation of energy structure. In the current climate governance, “double carbon” is also endowed with political significance, which greatly affects the layout of global energy trade and the pattern of resource supply and demand. The cooperation and competition based on “double carbon” directly affects the change of international balance of power and the trend of domestic and foreign sustainable development policies.
Steel industry: focusing on carbon control, the steel industry will enter the structural transformation of energy, process, raw materials and products, superimpose and compress China’s steel theoretical capacity and steel demand into the platform, so that the steel supply will also reach the peak; At present, the industry has entered a new cycle of carbon control + ultra-low emission + merger and reorganization + supply that does not encourage exports. It is estimated that in 2022, steel used in automobile, household appliances and shipbuilding industries will increase, while steel used in construction industry and machinery industry will decrease; China’s apparent consumption of crude steel decreased slightly and overseas demand decreased. In 2022, the output of crude steel decreased by 1.4% year-on-year. As the iron and steel industry enters a new cycle of supply side optimization, green and low-carbon are the plus items of enterprise competitiveness; Leading state-owned enterprises and advantageous private enterprises that become bigger and stronger through merger and reorganization can better meet the competitive requirements under the new cycle. Focus on enterprises that meet the above characteristics and whose product structure is mainly consumption chain steel. Focus on special steel listed companies focusing on high-end products.
Nonferrous Metals: under the background of carbon neutralization, the energy revolution has brought new increment to the demand side of the nonferrous metal industry. From energy metal lithium cobalt nickel rare earth to material rare earth permanent magnet, soft magnetic inductor, copper foil and aluminum foil, they have ushered in rapid development opportunities. Looking forward to 2022, it is suggested to actively grasp investment opportunities, including those brought by wet nickel project leading industry reform; Electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to enter the national carbon market, and hydropower aluminum and recycled aluminum enterprises usher in a good opportunity; The production and marketing of the global new energy vehicle market resonated, and the supply side expanded orderly. The expansion logic of rare earth permanent magnet industry as the main material of motor and lithium cobalt as the raw material of battery continued to be verified.
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, the loose price of the industrial chain promoted the recovery of downstream demand, and the whole county promoted the growth of distributed photovoltaic beyond expectations. In terms of industrial chain opportunities, we believe that the investment opportunities in 2022 will mainly focus on the components and terminal power stations that are the main beneficiaries of the silicon wafer price war. In addition, the cost reduction and efficiency increase path of hjt appears, the equipment orders take the lead, and the domestic core equipment has been verified by the hjt mass production line. In terms of wind power, the expectation of sea wind parity is obvious. The profits of head parts enterprises have a certain growth, and the policy underpinning fan installation center has moved up. We expect that the double carbon target implies an average annual installed capacity requirement of 45 and 60GW for wind power in the “14th five year plan” and “15th five year plan”.
New energy vehicles: lithium ore is still in short supply: under the high-profile trend of the industrial chain, the supply of lithium salt is still in shortage. Downstream manufacturers will grasp the safety of the supply chain through industrial chain integration and cooperation. Tesla leads the large-scale production of large cylindrical batteries: the mass production of 4680 large cylindrical batteries is imminent, paying attention to the new opportunities and challenges of battery material reform. Under the double limit policy, the graphitization capacity is tight, and it is imperative to promote the integration of negative electrode. China’s auto market: open a new era of new forces + independent brands + high-end SUVs, and a hundred flowers bloom on the supply side to support the high growth of the auto market; Overseas auto market: Tesla encounters strong enemy competition, and European auto enterprises’ localized battery supply shows their determination to develop.
Carbon market: carbon trading system is developing rapidly all over the world. Since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, the carbon trading system has developed rapidly. Countries and regions have begun to establish carbon trading systems one after another. At present, a unified global carbon trading market has not been formed. China opened the national unified carbon market trading in July 2021. In the future, the carbon market policy will be stricter, and the included industries will gradually expand to petrochemical, steel, chemical and other industries. The trading products will gradually expand from spot to futures, options and other derivatives. The CCER mechanism is also expected to restart, and the scale of the carbon market may exceed 10 billion in the future. The implementation of carbon emission trading policy is a key step to achieve the dual carbon goal. On the one hand, the establishment of carbon trading market system will help high emission enterprises reduce carbon emissions through energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, and the market-oriented trading means of emission quotas will provide them with arrangement power and economic support. On the other hand, renewable energy enterprises will also benefit from the promotion of voluntary certification mechanism, realize enterprise value revaluation through CCER trading, and focus on renewable energy enterprises High emission leading enterprises and relevant investment opportunities in the field of carbon finance.
CCER: with the improvement of carbon market policy, the carbon offset mechanism is expected to restart in the future. The short-term CCER supply is far less than the demand, and the price shows an upward trend. In the medium and long term, it will be in the state of supply and demand balance, and the price will remain stable. The CCER price is greatly affected by the policy. Assuming that the CCER mechanism is restarted and the policy mechanism has not changed much, from the perspective of CCER performance contribution, under the neutral condition when the carbon price of CCER is 30 yuan / tCO2: 1) renewable energy: the performance contribution of CCER to renewable energy projects is between 2.41% – 6%; 2) Forestry carbon sequestration: the performance contribution of CCER to forestry carbon sequestration project is between 1.21% – 5.72%; 3) Methane recovery: the performance contribution of CCER to methane recovery project is between 18.92-24.86%.
CCUs: carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage (CCUs) refers to the sum of a series of technologies that separate CO2 from industrial process, energy utilization or atmosphere, directly utilize it or inject it into the stratum to achieve permanent CO2 emission reduction. CCUs technology originated from the oil displacement and utilization of CO2 in the 1970s. From a global perspective, it has roughly gone through three stages and has entered the rapid growth stage in the initial stage of commercialization. CCUs is currently deployed in 25 countries around the world, with the United States and the European Union in a leading position. As one of the carbon emission reduction technologies, CCUs has great potential for emission reduction and can promote the clean utilization of fossil energy such as coal. Remarkable progress has been made in all technical links of CCUs in China, but at present, most technologies are still at the level of industrial demonstration and below, and a small number of technologies have the potential for commercial application. Although the current CCUs technology has not been commercialized on a large scale, in view of the large development space in the future, it is worth paying attention to the enterprises that have earlier deployed relevant technologies, especially the suppliers of carbon capture technology and carbon utilization technology or equipment. In addition, with the gradual maturity of the national carbon market, we can pay attention to the relevant subjects benefiting from the carbon market.
Coal: it is estimated that in 2022, coal-fired thermal power generation will increase by 1.2% year-on-year, power coal consumption will increase by 1.5%, and power coal will increase by 100 million tons. In 2022, the supply and demand of thermal coal is in a weak balance, and the market price of thermal coal is expected to be slightly corrected in the whole year. However, the price performance of the long-term association has stabilized, and the overall high profitability of coal enterprises has stabilized. It is estimated that the demand for coking coal in China will decrease by 3% and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons in 2022. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that coking coal import is an important factor in adjusting supply, and coking coal has little impact on people’s livelihood, we tend to think that the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. The gross profit margin of coal business of coking coal enterprises is completely related to the price of Changxie, so the annual profit in 2022 is basically the same as that in 2021.
Low carbon technology: among the current iron and steel process technologies, low-carbon metallurgical technologies with high maturity and strong practicability such as electric furnace steelmaking, pellet manufacturing, DRI and energy efficiency improvement have the potential to reduce carbon; On the basis of reaching the peak, the industry further promotes practical low-carbon metallurgical technologies with high maturity such as electric furnace steelmaking, increasing pellet ratio and DRI, drives the optimization of steel manufacturing process, improves energy efficiency of each process, reduces fossil fuel consumption and carbon emission intensity, which can better achieve the goal of reducing carbon by 30%.
High efficiency electric furnace steelmaking, pellet manufacturing, direct reduction iron shaft furnace, hydrogen rich smelting and steel plant energy efficiency improvement are important measures to achieve deep carbon reduction in the next decade, and the investment scale will reach nearly trillion yuan.
Building materials: Based on the logic of carbon neutralization, we believe that the sub industry of building materials has the following benefit paths: 1) the cement industry accounts for the largest proportion of carbon emissions, and the upgrading demand of intelligent environmental protection production line will promote relevant enterprises to fully benefit; 2) The glass fiber and glass sectors at the consumption end of building materials will benefit from the lightweight development of photovoltaic, wind power and new energy vehicles respectively; 3) It is the general trend to develop low-carbon and environment-friendly green buildings, focusing on gypsum, waterproof and ceramic tile enterprises; 4) The development of green refractory materials will play an important role in energy conservation and emission reduction of downstream high energy consuming and high emission enterprises. Leading enterprises will benefit from industry integration and accelerate.
Quantitative strategy of bulk commodity market: Aiming at the demand of such a scenario, this paper uses PCA / OLS and Kalman smoothing two-step method to construct a dynamic factor model for mixing broken tail data, and realizes the real-time broadcasting of the prosperity of industrial metal industry by looking for appropriate proxy variables. Theoretically, this model can be used to predict or trace the prosperity of any period in history. This paper mainly investigates the nowcasting of the current quarter and the right nowcasting for three consecutive months, and confirms the effectiveness of the model through a proposed investment strategy.
Risk warning: any suggestions, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the company on the date of issuance of this report.
