The US dollar index fell, the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed, Ted interest rate spread narrowed slightly, and China’s capital as a whole tightened first and then relaxed. The dollar index fell last week (20211227-20211231). The interest rate gap between China and the United States continues to narrow, the nominal interest rate of US bonds increases and the real interest rate decreases, which implies the rise of inflation expectations. Overseas, the credit spreads of US corporate bonds have narrowed, Ted spreads have narrowed slightly, and US financial liquidity is still abundant; For China, the overall inter-bank capital is tight first and then loose, the liquidity stratification is intensified first and then eased, the term spread (10y-1y) is widened, and the credit spread is differentiated as a whole. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat of media, power and utilities, coal, medicine and other industries is at a historical high, among which the fluctuation level of power and utilities is also at a historical relatively high. In terms of research, electronics, nonferrous metals, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, banking, computer and other sectors rank first.
Northbound trading is the main incremental capital in northbound capital recently, and northbound Chinese capital is still selling a shares. Last week (20211228-20211231), the net purchase of northward allocation was 3.937 billion yuan and the purchase of trading was 13.94 billion yuan. On the day, the trading order only chooses to sell on Wednesday (20211229), and buys sharply on the other trading days; The configuration disk chooses to sell on Tuesday (20211228) and Friday (20211231) and buy on the other trading days. In the industry, the differences between the trading sector and the configuration sector have been reduced. The consensus is to buy industries such as Dianxin, chemical industry, banking, nonferrous metals, military industry, machinery, computer and construction, and sell industries such as home appliances and light industry at the same time. In terms of style, the configuration / trading sector net sells the market growth sector and buys other sectors at the same time. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the allocation board bought Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 479 million yuan and sold Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 675 million yuan and 276 million yuan respectively. In terms of market value, last week’s allocation disk mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the sectors of electronics, new power, power and utilities, machinery and so on. It is worth mentioning that Beishang Chinese capital continued to sell A-Shares last week, with an overall sales of 3.208 billion yuan, mainly net sales of electronics, Dianxin, automobiles, food and beverage, media, medicine and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial institutions declined slightly and was at the lowest point in 2021. Last week (20211227-20211231), Liangrong sold a total of 2.957 billion yuan, mainly Buying nonferrous metals, banking, media, automobile, food and beverage and other sectors, and selling non-bank, computer, communication, chemical industry, electric power and other sectors. The two financial activities of most industries are at a historical low, while the light industry, consumer service and new electricity sectors are at a historical central level. In terms of style, Liangrong only buys small cap value sectors.
Public offering positions have increased, individual investors have made small subscription, and broad-based ETFs mainly held by institutions are still heavily subscribed. Last week (20211227-20211231), the position of active partial equity fund increased. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased its position in food and beverage, banking, automobile, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electric power and utilities, coal and other sectors, and mainly reduced its position in medicine, new electricity, chemical industry, military industry, nonferrous metals, machinery and other sectors. Last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions continued to be heavily subscribed, and they were still dominated by wide base; ETF stocks mainly held by individuals are subscribed slightly, which means that individuals may choose to subscribe for funds. By industry, among ETFs mainly held by individuals, ETFs related to financial real estate, consumption, medicine, new energy, cycle and other sectors were net subscribed, and ETFs related to military industry, science and technology and other sectors were net redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individuals) lies in the financial, real estate, consumption and other sectors, while there are differences in the pharmaceutical, science and technology, new energy and other sectors. The public offering has great differences with its main rivals (northward allocation) in the new energy industry chain (new power, nonferrous metals, chemical industry), high-end manufacturing (machinery, military industry) and some consumer sectors (food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery). For trend traders, Liangrong expressed its favor for the new energy industry chain, banks, food and beverage sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought new energy industry chain, large consumption sector and high-end manufacturing sector. On the whole, the overall consensus of the current market has rebounded, and all kinds of investors have a high degree of consensus in banking, commercial retail, automobile and other sectors. It should be noted that the northbound trading last week was active and was the main marginal force of the market. The historical law shows that such funds are more sensitive to the real interest rate of US bonds and the RMB exchange rate. At the moment of global liquidity tightening, this has increased the unstable factors of the market, especially the main buying sectors in this range. In addition, Beishang Chinese capital is still selling a shares, and is mainly concentrated in the heavy position sector of Beishang Chinese capital / the main net buying sector since 2021, which means that the impact of the “new regulations” may continue.
Risk tip: measurement error.
