Core view
As of January 20, 22 provincial administrative regions have issued government work reports, and the expected economic targets are more than 5.0%, indicating a strong demand for steady growth. Among them, the GDP target of Shanghai is about 5.5%. All provinces and cities have expounded the rhythm, strength and key direction of policy combination under the background of steady growth. We maintain our previous judgment that the actual growth target of national GDP in 2022 is 5.5%, welcome the victory of the 20th CPC National Congress with excellent economic performance, and the manufacturing industry driven by carbon neutralization industrial policy will return to the supporting force at both ends of supply and demand. At the same time, we suggest to pay attention to the financial statistics released in mid February and mid March. The probability of social financing and credit data is higher than market expectations, and the credit in the four fields of manufacturing, carbon reduction, infrastructure and mortgage will continue to increase simultaneously. In the context of steady growth, we need to grasp the structural market of the stock market and be vigilant against the rise of long-term interest rates.
Local governments have a strong demand for steady growth, and investment leads a good start
From the perspective of local economic work deployment, the economic objectives of all provincial administrative regions are higher than 5%. Many places require "doing everything possible to expand effective investment", comprehensive transportation network, old city reconstruction (urban renewal), affordable rental housing construction, major industrial projects (new energy and intelligent transformation), digital economy New power systems (UHV projects) and other fields are the main driving force for steady growth. Local governments responded positively to the requirements of moderately advanced infrastructure investment, took multiple measures to expand domestic demand, and 102 key projects identified in the 14th five year plan have been launched one after another. The government work report of Sichuan Province in 2022 pointed out that "further implement the industrial infrastructure reconstruction project", and it is expected to achieve an 8% growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2022. The work report of Liaoning provincial government once again expounds the leading role of the institutional arrangement of "taking the lead" in tackling key technologies and scientific and technological innovation. We judge that all provinces and cities will make a good start in the first quarter of 2022, and the national GDP growth rate in the first quarter is higher than expected.
Under the background of "establishing before breaking", the biggest expected difference is manufacturing investment
The local government work report reiterated that "new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control", pointing to the industrial policy of "building first and breaking later" in 2022, which focuses on expanding the application of new energy. At present, the biggest expectation difference in the market lies in studying and judging manufacturing investment from an Endogenous Perspective (such as export, income, profit, etc.), but ignoring the exogenous strong traction of industrial policy in the process of "new energy +" (i.e. industrial new energy), manufacturing investment has changed from a Pro cyclical variable to a driving variable of economic growth. It is disclosed in the government work report of Beijing in 2022 that the city pays close attention to the warehousing and landing of projects, and the manufacturing investment will increase by more than 60% in 2021. The government work report of Zhejiang Province in 2022 emphasizes that "focusing on the construction of major projects, the investment in manufacturing industry will increase by 10% and the investment in infrastructure will increase by about 5.5% We expect the growth rate of manufacturing investment to be 11.1% in 2022.
In the first quarter, we need to pay attention to the social finance and credit data, and the Treasury bond yield curve will gradually steep
Recently, the central bank's press conference fully reflects its determination to actively exert monetary policy. It is expected that the central bank will "launch four arrows" to broaden credit (manufacturing loans, carbon reduction loans, infrastructure loans and mortgage loans) in the first quarter of 2022. We mainly suggest that in the first quarter of 2022, the new scale of social finance in the current quarter can reach 11.6 trillion, reaching the historical quarterly increment peak of social finance, exceeding the level in the same period in 2020. Meanwhile, we judge that the M2 and social finance data of February released by the central bank in mid March are probably higher than market expectations. We believe that the policy combination of "wide credit + wide currency" in the first quarter will promote the steepening of the Treasury bond yield curve. The 10-year Treasury bond yield will rise to near the high point of 3.2% at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter. The stock market suggests paying attention to the chain of steady growth and cost reduction.
Risk tip: global inflation exceeds expectations; There are systemic risks in the disposal of local government implicit debt
