Core view
PVDF has a wide range of applications, and its demand will grow rapidly in the future
PVDF has excellent chemical stability, weather resistance and adhesion. It is widely used in fluorocarbon coatings, injection molding, lithium batteries, photovoltaic backplanes and water treatment. Among them, lithium battery is the fastest developing field in the downstream. PVDF is mainly used as positive binder. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, energy storage and consumer electronics, the demand continues to increase; At the same time, PVDF, as the main back sector film of photovoltaic, benefits from the rapid growth of the overall installed capacity of photovoltaic and the steady increase of demand. According to our calculation, the total demand for PVDF will reach 60000 tons in 2021. Referring to the average price of 195000 yuan / ton in 2021, the corresponding market scale is 11.7 billion yuan; By 2025, the total demand for PVDF will reach 134000 tons, corresponding to the market scale of 26.1 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 22%.
PVDF’s medium and short-term new capacity is limited. In the long run, Dongyue and Juhua are expected to grow into new leaders in the industry
In terms of supply, at present, the effective capacity of PVDF in China is about 69000 T / A, and the competition pattern is relatively scattered. Except that Arkema and Dongyue have a capacity of 1450 and 10000 t / a respectively, the capacity of Solvay, sanaifu, Ruyuan Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) , Sinochem Lantian, Juhua, funolin, Lianchuang and other enterprises are all at the level of 1000 tons. In terms of new capacity, although many capacity construction plans are disclosed at present, some are still in the approval stage, and face barriers such as long construction certification cycle, great technical difficulties and limited upstream raw materials. Therefore, it is difficult to significantly increase the medium and short-term PVDF capacity. It is estimated that the PVDF capacity will reach 83000 tons, 119000 tons, 162000 tons and 179000 tons respectively from 2022 to 2025 (excluding the capacity that has not received the EIA at present). In the long run, Juhua, Dongyue, funolin and other enterprises expand their production on a large scale, and all have R142b supporting facilities, which is expected to grow into a new leader in the industry.
PVDF welcomes the business cycle and the supporting R142b will fully benefit
Driven by the demand for lithium battery and photovoltaic, the price of PVDF has increased significantly since 2021q2. Among them, the price of lithium battery PVDF increased from 110000 yuan / ton at the beginning of April to 445000 yuan / ton at the end of December, with a cumulative increase of 304.5%. The price of PVDF such as coating grade also increased significantly to meet the business cycle. Meanwhile, through the price difference analysis, the q1-q3 price difference of pvdf-r152a / liquid chlorine in 2021 was 50370, 67306 and 195019 yuan / ton respectively, of which the q1-q3 price difference of r142br152a / liquid chlorine link was 18109, 43612 and 146401 yuan / ton respectively, which increased significantly, and the proportion in the overall price difference increased significantly. Therefore, the integrated enterprises supporting R142b capacity will benefit more.
Risk tip: the demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; The construction of new production capacity is less than expected; Environmental protection and safety production risks; Risks of industry fluctuation and intensified market competition; Focus on the company’s performance less than expected
