Event: on January 19, 2022, Guangdong Provincial Drug Trading Center issued the document on centralized procurement of diclofenac and other drugs of Guangdong Alliance (gdyjypdl202201). Previously, on September 30, 2021, Guangdong Pharmaceutical Trading Center issued the volume procurement document (Exposure Draft) of 153 pharmaceutical groups including diclofenac of Guangdong alliance. The alliance procurement of 11 provinces in Guangdong involves 276 varieties. We interpret the relevant rules and effects of blood products and growth hormone.
Blood products: the winning rules are mild and the price reduction range is limited
The winning rule is relatively mild. Blood products are listed separately without distinguishing between a / b purchase orders; The quotation of the declared product specifications of the enterprise only needs to be ≤ the lower value between the highest valid quotation (P0) and the lowest price in the alliance area to enter the list of proposed winners, and there is no limit on the number of successful enterprises; The selected enterprise obtains 100% of the first year's pre purchase volume of the enterprise in the alliance area and obtains incremental use.
The price reduction is expected to be limited. On the one hand, the government guided prices are relatively loose, and most of the maximum effective declared prices of the five varieties are 30-40% higher than the online price. Therefore, under the above mild winning rules, enterprises have limited willingness to reduce prices. On the other hand, as a resource-based industry, blood products have long been subject to plasma supply and overseas epidemic, resulting in a decline in the issuance of import batches. The industry presents a tight balance between supply and demand. At the same time, the indications for medical insurance coverage of blood products are relatively limited, and most of the volume is still in the out of hospital market that is not affected by the centralized purchase policy. Therefore, the space for enterprise price reduction is limited.
Domestic substitution of human albumin is expected to accelerate. The import proportion of human albumin in China has been maintained at about 60% for a long time, and the proportion of import batch issuance will reach 68.4% in 2020. In particular, the use of imported human albumin products in class III hospitals is high. This centralized purchase is expected to promote the use of domestic human albumin in hospitals and further accelerate the substitution of domestic albumin.
Growth hormone: the highest effective application price of water needle decreased more than expected, and the short-term impact is controllable
Interpretation of rules. 1) Grouping of reported quantity: there are 6 growth hormone enterprises that have obtained the reported quantity this time. According to the grouping rules of purchase orders, Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) , Kinsey pharmaceutical and unisell enter the purchase order a, and the other 3 enter the purchase order B (assuming that all enterprises sign up to participate). 2) Step quotation: a purchase order enterprise must quote separately according to two steps, P1 is lower than the lowest price by > = 10%, P0 > = P1 > = P2; B. only one price is quoted in the purchase order. 3) Successful bidding / alternative bidding: 10% ≤ P1, the decrease from the lowest price of the enterprise ≤ 19%, the proportion of the first year's pre purchase quantity to be determined = 25% + 5% for each 1% decrease, up to 70%; The enterprises with the lowest "unit comparable price" in P2 are included in the proposed selection range. The enterprises proposed to be selected in P2 obtain 100% of the pre purchase volume of the enterprise in the alliance area in the first year of the procurement period and obtain the use of increment.
The proportion of centralized purchase amount is very small, and the short-term impact is limited. The centralized purchase scale of Kinsey pharmaceutical and Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) which obtained the reported volume this time is 117 million yuan and 45.9 million yuan (calculated according to the online price), accounting for a small amount of revenue of the two companies (the revenue of Kinsey pharmaceutical and Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) in 2020 is 5.8 billion yuan and 1.7 billion yuan respectively), which has little impact on the short-term performance of the company.
The long-term impact remains to be seen. Although the amount of public medical institutions participating in centralized purchase accounts for a small proportion of the company's revenue, considering the decrease of about 70% of the maximum effective application price of water needle compared with the online price, as well as the possibility of price linkage inside and outside the hospital and the expansion of alliance procurement to the whole country, The centralized collection still needs to continue to pay attention to the participation strategies and coping styles of growth hormone related enterprises, especially the three enterprises of water needle.
Investment suggestion: blood products - under the background of tight balance between supply and demand, enterprises with leading plasma resources and deterministic improvement space for plasma collection are favored. It is recommended to Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) , Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) . Growth hormone - although the maximum effective application price of water needle has decreased by 70% compared with the online price, which is far more than expected, considering that the proportion of the centralized purchase scale is still very small and has little impact on the company's performance, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the game strategy and response of Kinsey pharmaceutical and Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) .
Risk tip: risk of policy change; Risk that the procurement volume is less than expected
