\u3000\u3000 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833)
The company issued the performance forecast for 21 years:
In the 21st year, the income was 19.9-21.4 billion yuan (+ 35% – 45%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.64-2.85 billion yuan (+ 28% – 38%), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 2.48-2.67 billion yuan (+ 28% – 38%), the annual income slightly exceeded the expectation, and we expect it to be in the middle of the range. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 is 5.50-6.97 billion yuan (+ 9.8% – 39.2%, median + 24%), and the net profit attributable to parent company is 5.27-7.3 (- 14.0% – 19.7%, median + 3%). Considering the impact of impairment, it is expected to be slightly lower in the range, and the net profit not attributable to parent company is 463-657 million yuan (- 15.5% – 19.9%, median + 2%).
Key investment points
Q4 revenue growth slightly exceeded expectations under the high base, mainly driven by wardrobe + decoration
The revenue side grew slightly higher than expected under the high base of 20q4 (+ 25%), mainly due to the firm implementation of the retail large home & Decoration strategy. We estimate that the company’s Q4 wardrobe has achieved a 25-30% growth, the packaged large home has achieved a high double-digit growth, and the retail kitchen cabinet is expected to still have a high single-digit growth. For the bulk business, the order receiving rhythm is controlled and expected to be stable due to the consideration of risk control. (1) The company actively promoted the integrated sales of customized core categories and supporting products to improve the customer unit value. The three plans of kitchen cabinet K5, wardrobe T8 and opelli Q8 kept pace with each other, driving the revenue growth of the same store (21q1-q3 + 43% compared with 19 years). (2) The performance of packaged large home continued to exceed expectations. After the launch of the independent brand of Star House in April 21, investment attraction was rapid. As of 21q3, the number of stores was close to 700 (compared with the beginning of the period + 270, star house was the main store, and the opening speed in 22 years was expected to be no less than 21 years). The order receiving amount from January to October of 21 exceeded 2 billion (+ 104%), and the whole year was expected to be 2.3-2.4 billion, 21q1-q3 acceptance: 1.184 billion (+ 95%). Looking forward to the next 22 years, the company has set a target of 3.5 billion orders (+ 50-60%) and continued its rapid growth.
21q4 profit margin disturbed by raw materials & bulk
According to the median forecast, the net interest rate of 21q4 company is about 10%, a year-on-year decrease of 2pct, slightly lower than expected. We believe that it is mainly due to (1) the price rise of upstream materials such as hardware in 21 years, and the company only raised the supply price of dealers by 1% in July (helping dealers), so the gross profit rate has been damaged to a certain extent; (2) The price competition in bulk industries has intensified, the profit margin has declined, the real estate chain has been under pressure for 21 years, and the proportion of bad debts has increased. It is expected that the company Q4 will accrue a certain impairment; (3) In the 21st year, there were many e-commerce live broadcasting & supporting products promotion activities, and the sales proportion of low gross profit packages and supporting products increased.
Looking forward to the next 22 years, we are optimistic that the company will continue to extend to the fields of software, main and auxiliary materials with kitchen, clothing, wood and sanitary ware as the core and leading information system as the bridge, provide real one-stop solutions, and reap the rapid growth of performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of RMB 20.50/2478/29.43 billion in the next 21-23 years, with an increase of 39% / 21% / 19% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2.75/33.3/4.15 billion, with an increase of 33% / 21% / 25% respectively. Corresponding to the current PE32 / 27 / 21x, europay, as a leader of big home and strong alpha, has highlighted its strength, raised its long-term share and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The expansion of packaged business was less than expected, and the growth of new products did not meet expectations.
