\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) (000049)
Event: the company announced that on January 20, 2022, the company signed the agreement on the entry of Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) energy storage cell project with the Management Committee of Wangcheng economic and Technological Development Zone, and set up a holding subsidiary in Changsha Wangcheng economic and Technological Development Zone to build " Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) energy storage cell project".
The company's energy storage strategy is broad and the path planning is clear: the company's energy storage cell project plans to invest 7.5 billion yuan in fixed assets and layout 20gwh capacity in three phases. The investment in phase I is 1.6 billion yuan and the construction capacity is 4gwh; The investment in phase II and phase III is 2.95 billion yuan respectively, with a capacity of 8gwh each. The company has advanced energy storage technology and high-quality customer resources. At present, it is the main supplier of energy storage system integration of front-line companies. In the future, with the successful completion of cell R & D and manufacturing integration, it is expected to open up the industrial chain, further expand customers and open a broad market space.
The energy storage progress is fast, and the performance is expected to improve rapidly: phase I of the project is expected to be officially put into operation in the first quarter of 2023, with a construction cycle of about 12 months, faster than the average construction cycle of the industry. The company's expected revenue in 2021 is 19.465 billion yuan. If the subsequent phase I project is successfully and fully put into operation, it is expected to achieve an annual output value of 2.244 billion yuan, and the third phase can achieve an annual output value of 12 billion yuan. At that time, the company's overall operating revenue is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan, the company's revenue scale and the proportion of energy storage business are expected to increase significantly, and the gross profit margin of new energy storage business is higher than that of existing business, The company's profitability is also expected to improve significantly.
"Energy storage + new consumer electronics" two wheel drive, the company opens up room for growth: the company's energy storage business can grow in the future; At the same time, actively expand new business, focus on high growth emerging consumer electronics business, benefit from the new consumer market, the rapid growth of power tools, intelligent hardware and other businesses, and gradually improve profitability. From 2018 to 2021, the CAGR of the company's net profit was about 25%, realizing rapid growth. The company has formed a two wheel drive pattern of "energy storage + new consumer electronics".
Profit forecast and Valuation: the business structure of the company continues to improve, the energy storage sector develops rapidly, and the future growth can be expected. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 194.65/237.06/27.468 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 780/1038/1337 million, corresponding to 20 / 15 / 12 times of PE, maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the development of energy storage industry is not as expected; The company's energy storage progress is less than expected; The growth rate of emerging consumer electronics was lower than expected.
