\u3000\u3000 Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) (688308)
Event overview
The company released the performance forecast, and it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 215 million to RMB 230 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 100.10% to 114.06%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 185 million to RMB 200 million, with a year-on-year increase of 79.62% to 94.19%.
Analysis and judgment:
It mainly benefited from the rising prosperity of the industry and the improvement of its own profitability, and achieved substantial growth in its performance in the past 21 years
1) in 2021, the company's CNC tool production & sales volume and cemented carbide products sales volume increased, driving the high growth of revenue, benefiting from the high bearing of the manufacturing industry.
2) the company has increased the development of new products. With the improvement of production efficiency and sales channels, the gross profit margin of products has gradually increased. At the same time, the company implemented fine management, and the cost rate further decreased.
3) in addition, the increase of investment income and government subsidies also contributed to part of the company's performance increment.
There is a large space for capacity release, and the future performance can be expected to increase
1) the company listed and raised 40 million pieces of high-end CNC blade intelligent manufacturing base construction project, which is expected to gradually release production capacity with the expansion of sales channels. We expect the company to reach an annual production capacity of 100 million NC blades by the end of 2022.
2) the company announced in November 2021 that it plans to invest 750 million yuan to build a CNC Tool Industrial Park, including a new R & D office building, and build a production line with an annual output of 1000 tons of high-performance bars, 3 million integral cemented carbide tools, 200000 sets of CNC tools, 5 million pieces of cermet blades and 10 tons of cermet serrations, with a construction period of 18 months. This expansion is of great significance for the company to continuously improve the proportion of high-end products and profitability.
3) to sum up, we judge that the sales volume and average price of the company's products are expected to be further improved, and the company has great growth space.
Investment suggestion: keep the company's previous profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.068/13.52/1.852 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 223/3.07/420 million respectively, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 2.23/3.07/4.20 respectively, the corresponding closing price of RMB 72.18/share on January 20, 2022, and the PE will be 32 / 24 / 17 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating of the company.
Risk tips
The price increase is less than expected, the capacity expansion is less than expected, and the prosperity of downstream industries is less than expected.
