\u3000\u3000 Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) (603599)
Performance review
On January 19, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 to be 1.45 billion yuan to 1.51 billion yuan, an increase of 861 million yuan to 921 million yuan over the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 146.29% to 156.48%. Among them, in the fourth quarter, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent of 417 million yuan to 477 million yuan in a single quarter. Business analysis
In terms of the price of subdivided products, the current quotation of thiophanate methyl, the main product of bactericide, is 50000 yuan / ton (white), and carbendazim is 50000 yuan / ton (white); The main herbicide product diuron was 58000 yuan / ton, basically stable; The current quotation of glyphosate is 80000 yuan / ton, which is in the business cycle. The company's Glyphosate goes with the market and can fully enjoy the profit thickening brought by the upward price. In fine chemicals, the company quoted 17400 yuan / ton for nitrochlorobenzene and 11000 yuan / ton for o-nitrochlorobenzene; At present, the company's adjacent para nitrate phase 2 project has been put into operation. We believe that with the launch of the company's adjacent para nitrochlorobenzene phase II production capacity, the company's market share will further increase. In addition, the company extends to the downstream p-aminophenol of adjacent para nitrate and further optimizes its profitability.
New projects downstream of phosgene industrial chain are continuously promoted to support long-term growth. In our in-depth report "continuous improvement of industrial chain and great growth potential", we pointed out that the company takes Guangde and Dongzhi industrial bases as the center and relies on rich phosgene resources to produce a variety of fungicides and herbicides. In the next 1-2 years, the company will actively promote the layout of fungicides, herbicides and insecticides, and the long-term growth space is expected to reach a higher level.
Investment advice
In 2021, the prices of some products of the company were at a high level. We believe that there will be a certain sustainability in 2022. In 2023, the company benefited from the further growth brought by the launch of new projects. We revised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1472, 15.29 (- 0.26%) and 1.679 (- 1.9%) billion respectively; EPS is 3.17, 3.29 and 3.54 yuan respectively. The current market value corresponds to PE of 11.21x/10.80x/10.03x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The project construction progress is less than expected; The price of pesticide products fell; Demand for pesticides fell.
