\u3000\u3000 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833)
Event:
The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021: 1) in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 19.899-21.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.0% – 45.0% and a central growth rate of 40.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.641-2.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.0% – 38.0%, and the central growth rate was 33.0%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.477-2.670 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.0% – 38.0%, and the central growth rate was 33.0%. 2) In Q4, the company’s revenue in a single quarter was 5.497-6.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% – 39.2%, and the central growth rate was 24.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 528-734 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.8% to 19.9%, and the central growth rate was 3.0%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 463-656 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.5% to 19.8%, and the central growth rate was 2.1%. The year-on-year decline in Q4 profit margin is mainly related to the rise in the price of raw materials, the seasonal fluctuation of the company’s subsidies to dealers, and the impairment of accounts receivable in bulk business.
Comments:
Wardrobe: with the increase of customer unit value and large volume of package, the income of wardrobe increased rapidly. ① The price increase purchase and the whole room space package continue to exert their power. The deep binding with mousse makes its wardrobe whole room space package cost-effective and highly recognizable; ② The integrated sales mode of customized core + supporting products + door wall system has opened up a new sales path in the industry. In the whole year, the customer unit value is expected to increase by more than 10%; ③ In terms of channels: the expansion of bag carrying and packaging has been accelerated. The company has continued to occupy the front channels in the past few years, and the results have gradually begun to show.
Cabinet: the competitive advantage appears, expanding categories and space to help improve customer orders. When the whole industry is under pressure, the competitive advantage of the company’s cabinet appears. ① Continue the cabinet + strategy, continue to increase the proportion of revenue from kitchen appliances and other supporting products, and drive the continuous growth of retail customer unit value; ② The company further activates retail dealers to carry out business cooperation with local decoration enterprises. It is expected that in the whole year of 21 years, the sales volume brought by the whole decoration is expected to increase to more than 15%; ③ Further promote the “full kitchen customization” mode, tap the potential of the old kitchen reform, and drive the steady growth of cabinet retail performance. The competitiveness of European style cabinets has been continuously improved in the past year, far away from competitors for at least two positions.
The development of packaged home furnishings was smooth, and the income continued to increase. In terms of decoration, europay and star house go hand in hand, doubling the expected annual revenue, and the main and auxiliary materials business has also made a breakthrough and contributed to the increase of revenue. In terms of home distribution business, the company has achieved rapid growth driven by wardrobe and packaging business, and is expected to achieve at least double-digit growth in the whole year. The integrated sub brand star home and the European integrated home form a two wing drive, and its unique platform model is expected to drive the European integrated business to achieve a compound growth of more than 50% in the next two years.
It is estimated that the company’s EPS in 2022 and 2023 will be 5.67 and 7.08 yuan respectively, corresponding to 21.81 and 17.46 times of PE in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The company is leading the industry in diversified channels, category expansion and supply chain integration. Considering that the company may become the dragon head of the 4 trillion Pan home industry in the future, it maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of real estate is lower than expected, and the business promotion is lower than expected.
