\u3000\u3000 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833)
Event: the company issued the announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021. It is estimated that the annual operating revenue in 2021 will reach 19.899 billion yuan to 21.373 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35% to 45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 2.640 billion yuan to 2.846 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28% to 38%; It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit of RMB 2.477 billion to RMB 2.671 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 28% to 38%.
Comments:
The high base in the same period last year dragged down Q4 growth, and the annual operating performance was in line with expectations. From the perspective of single quarter, the company’s Q4 single quarter is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 5.497 billion yuan to 6.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.76% ~ + 39.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 527 million yuan to 733 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of – 14.00% ~ + 19.69%; In a single quarter, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit of 463 million yuan to 657 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 15.45% ~ + 19.85%. There may be some pressure on the growth of Q4 revenue and performance of the company. We think the main reasons are: (1) the high base in the same period last year has a certain drag on the growth of Q4 this year; (2) In Q4 this year, the epidemic has been repeated in many places across the country, which may have an impact on offline furniture consumption and installation and delivery of customized home orders. (3) The price fluctuation of raw materials in the early stage forms a certain pressure on Q4 performance end
Wardrobe and kitchen cabinet became the main driving force of revenue growth, and the channel capacity barrier continued to build and thicken. The company’s category expansion effect is remarkable, and the category of wardrobe and supporting products continues to increase. By the first three quarters of 2021, the proportion of wardrobe revenue has exceeded that of cabinets, becoming the main driving force of the company’s revenue growth. Traditional channels have a deep roots. By the end of the third quarter, the number of terminal stores had reached 7461. New channels have developed rapidly, engineering channel customers are of high quality and healthy scale, and the packaged channel is growing at a high speed. In terms of production capacity, the company plans to invest 5 billion yuan to build Huazhong intelligent manufacturing base. After the project is put into operation, it is expected to achieve an annual sales revenue of about 3.6 billion yuan, and effectively complete the layout of a full range of production bases covering the “southeast, northwest and middle” of the country.
Investment suggestion: the big home strategy continues to deepen, the integrated sales capacity continues to improve, and the “buy” rating is maintained. During the year, the company took the lead in launching the whole customization strategy, further deepened the large home strategy and the ability of multi category integrated sales, and promoted the company’s gradual transformation to a platform large home enterprise. We believe that the growth momentum of the company has gradually changed from simple channel expansion to the promotion dimension of customer unit price and conversion rate enabled by large household, and we continue to be optimistic about the company’s long-term steady growth ability. We maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 27.83/33.24/3.917 billion respectively, corresponding to the current market value PE of 32 / 27 / 23x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the cost of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the real estate market fluctuates, and the channel development is less than expected.
