\u3000\u3000 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (300413)
Event: the company announced the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.04-2.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.92% – 7.96%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 2-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.33% – 13.75%.
Reasons for the decline in performance growth: 1) seasonal factors: Q4 has always had low profit contribution and more provision for marketing expenses. 2) Variety shows did not go online as scheduled: the epidemic affected the discharge of variety shows, and the Q4 detective did not go online as scheduled. 3) Structural adjustment: the structural adjustment of the three subsidiaries has an impact from Q2, has a great impact on the annual performance, and also has a certain project impairment. 4) Small awn Investment: small awn has a large strategic investment in the peak season of Q4 e-commerce, and there are many major brand building activities in Q4 (small awn seed flower night, double 11 and double 12).
Abide by the content as king, innovate and achieve good results. In 2021, the company’s advertising and operator revenue grew by more than 30%. By the end of 2021, the number of effective members of mango TV had reached 50.4 million, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, thanks to popular variety shows such as sister riding the wind and waves, brother cutting through thorns and thorns, goodbye lover, I’m good in another country and wolf hunter “The twelfth second” and other well-known dramas have attracted a large audience. According to the data of Yien, as of January 20, 2022, the variety “brother cutting through thorns” has been online for 161 days, with a cumulative broadcast volume of 5.86 billion; The drama “I’m good in a foreign land” has been online for 185 days, with a cumulative broadcast volume of 1.17 billion. In the future, with the support of the company’s strong content production power and IP iterative operation power (it is expected to launch variety shows in 2022, including classic IP sequels such as sister 3, brother 2, detective 7 and escape 4), the growth of the company’s member income and advertising revenue is still worth looking forward to.
Xiaomang accurately positioned Guochao content e-commerce and achieved a breakthrough in the number of users. In 2021, Xiaomang transformed into an e-commerce with trendy domestic content, with a daily peak of 1.26 million during the reporting period. The reasons for the breakthrough of Xiaomang e-commerce are as follows: 1) enabling content and IP reserves: the company will link multiple domestic brands and designer brands on Xiaomang e-commerce platform with rich IP resources, improve the popularity of domestic products and minority designer products, and increase the purchase rate; 2) Full link marketing: online, the company makes full use of microblog, xiaohongshu and other platforms to carry out full link marketing; Offline, by holding the national tide and domestic IP grand ceremony “small ear seed flower night” to attract a large number of visitors, traffic import is realized in a multi pronged manner.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.13 yuan, 1.47 yuan and 1.70 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 39 times, 30 times and 26 times. Considering that the company has rich product lines next year, the negative impact of stable macroeconomic growth on advertising business gradually subsides, and Xiaomang e-commerce is on the right track, we maintain the investment rating of Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) “buy”.
Risk warning: the risk that the product effect is not as good as expected and the risk of national policy adjustment
