\u3000\u3000 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (300973)
Event: the company issued the annual performance forecast for 2021. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 2.78-2.85 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 53.62% – 57.49%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 275-295 million, with a year-on-year increase of 18.49% – 27.10%, and a net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses of RMB 260-280 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15.13% – 23.98%.
On the revenue side, the revenue of 21q4 is expected to increase by 34.36% – 45.85% at the same time, and large single products continue to boost revenue growth. In 2021, the company expects to realize an operating revenue of RMB 2.78-2.85 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 53.62% – 57.49%. Quarter by quarter, 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 achieved revenue of 579 / 673 / 710 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 130.54% / 60.59% / 33.84% respectively. 21q4 is expected to achieve revenue of 819-889 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.36% – 45.85%. The main reason for the annual revenue growth is the strong market demand of the baking industry. With the advantages of product diversification, excellent quality and stable supply, the company has made good achievements in diversified channels such as baking, supermarkets and catering. In terms of products, the company has a large number of large single products such as cassava and frozen cake, which has contributed to revenue growth.
On the profit side, 21q4 performance growth improved month on month, and profitability continued to improve. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 275-295 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.49% – 27.10%. Among them, the impact of the company’s implementation of excess performance incentive scheme and equity incentive plan on the company’s net profit is about 35 million yuan. After excluding the above influencing factors, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was RMB 310-330 million, with a year-on-year increase of 33.57% – 42.18%. Quarter by quarter, 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 achieved net profit attributable to parent company of 73 / 0.64/061 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of + 300.5% / + 10.2% / – 26.5%. 21q4 is expected to achieve net profit attributable to parent company of 77-97 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% – 32.8%. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 9.89% – 10.35%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.47-2.93pct. In the face of the rise in the price of oil and other bulk raw materials, the company mainly reduces costs and increases efficiency through internal production and operation management optimization and product structure optimization, so as to hedge the pressure caused by the rise in the price of raw materials.
Investment suggestion: according to the performance forecast, the company has a high probability of completing the equity incentive target in 21 years, and the exercise price of equity incentive in 21 years is 108.2 yuan / share. The company continues to optimize production capacity layout and increase construction investment, actively cultivate new products and expand channels, and new products such as cassava and frozen cake rise rapidly. Under the catalysis of current cost pressure, the market continues to clear, and the market share is expected to increase in the future. Due to the impact of epidemic factors, we adjusted the net profit of 21 / 22 to 280 / 360 million yuan respectively (the previous value was 310 / 400 million yuan), corresponding to 69 / 55xpe, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of repeated epidemic, the company’s operation falling short of expectations, the risk of raw material cost fluctuation and the performance report are the preliminary calculation results. The specific financial data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company’s annual report
