\u3000\u3000 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) (603392)
Event: on the evening of January 20, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.85-2.05 billion in 2021, an increase of RMB 1.173-1.373 billion, a year-on-year increase of 173% – 203%; It is estimated that the non net profit deducted will be 1.777-1.977 billion yuan, an increase of 1.160-1.360 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 188% – 220%.
The performance greatly exceeded expectations, and the export of covid-19 significantly thickened the IVD sector. In 2021, the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine continued to increase rapidly with the release of production capacity, and the demand for covid-19 detection reagent increased greatly in the second half of the year, realizing the rapid growth of parent net profit. According to the median calculation, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 662-862 million yuan in the fourth quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 215% – 310%. Referring to the pre increase of net profit attributable to the parent company in batch issuance, market and announcement, we predict that (1) the company will recognize about 11 million HPV vaccines in 2021 and contribute about 1.1 billion profits; (2) In June 2021, it cooperated with GSK to authorize the recognition of revenue of about 84.68 million yuan; (3) It is estimated that the IVD sector will contribute about 700 million yuan in 2021, which is mainly due to the repeated global epidemic in the fourth quarter of 21, the significant increase in overseas testing demand, and the company’s covid-19 raw material sales and overseas testing reagent export revenue.
Driven by the superposition policy of capacity release, domestic HPV is expected to further accelerate the release. In the first half of 2021, the company’s new pre potted syringe product line for bivalent HPV vaccine was approved. In July, the production scale of the company’s preparations in the form of vials was enlarged. At present, the company’s total production capacity of bivalent HPV vaccine has reached 30 million vials / year (20 million vials + 10 million pre potted vials). Since it was approved, bivalent HPV vaccine has maintained a rapid and large-scale trend. Since 2020, Xiamen, Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) , Jinan and other places have issued policies to promote the free vaccination of HPV vaccine for school-age women, which is conducive to further improve the awareness and vaccination rate of HPV vaccine. In the next few years, domestic HPV vaccine is expected to usher in accelerated mass production. In October 21, the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine passed the PQ certification of who, which also helped to further open the international market.
The R & D pipeline was promoted in an orderly manner, and the fixed growth plan was issued to accelerate the industrialization process. The company’s phase III clinical trial of 9-valent HPV vaccine is progressing smoothly. At present, it has completed the third clinical on-site vaccination and started the non inferiority evaluation test with competitive vaccines at the same time, with the clinical progress leading in China; Nasal spray covid-19 vaccine is about to carry out clinical phase III in many overseas countries; The clinical trial of 20 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine was approved and made rapid progress among similar pcv20 products. In October of 21, the company issued the fixed increase plan, and it plans to raise no more than 3.5 billion yuan, which is mainly used for the phase II expansion project of 9-valent HPV vaccine, the industrialization project of 20 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine, the construction project of diagnosis base and the construction project of nasal spray vaccine industrial base. After the completion of phase II expansion project of 9-valent HPV vaccine, the company will have 6 hpv9-valent virus like particles (VLP) vaccine stock solution production lines based on E. coli technology platform, and the design capacity can be increased to 60 million pieces / year, doubling the existing capacity.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: according to the performance forecast, we slightly adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 5.124 billion, 7.235 billion and 9.213 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 117.67%, 41.19% and 27.34%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.00 billion, RMB 2.966 billion and RMB 3.882 billion respectively (RMB 1.480 billion, RMB 1.824 billion and RMB 2.210 billion respectively before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 195.38%, 48.32% and 30.88%. As one of the leading companies with beautiful product pipeline under research and overseas technology output, it will benefit from the continuous increase of 2-valent HPV vaccine in the next three years. The 9-valent HPV vaccine under research has entered clinical phase III and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: the risk of intensified competition and price reduction of HPV vaccine, the risk that the R & D progress is less than expected, the risk that the prediction premise is less than expected, resulting in deviation in market capacity calculation, case risk of adverse reaction events of vaccine, policy and regulatory risk.
