\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (300037)
Key investment points
The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 to be 439 million yuan, a month on month increase of + 2%, in line with market expectations. The company expects that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 1.307 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 152.39%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 439 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 204.8% and a month on month increase of 2%, which is in line with market expectations. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 1.233 billion, a year-on-year increase of 156.18%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 421 million in 2021q4, a month-on-month increase of 2%.
The integration process is accelerated and the electrolyte profit is maintained in 2021q4. We expect the company to ship about 21000 tons of electrolyte in 2021q4, with a slight increase on a month on month basis. In 2021, the company’s cumulative shipment is about 78000 tons, more than doubling year-on-year. Due to the continuous high outlook of the industry, we expect the company’s electrolyte shipment to further double to 140000-150000 tons in 2022. In terms of profitability, we estimate that the net profit of electrolyte of 2021q4 company is about 300 million yuan, corresponding to a net profit of about 14000 yuan per ton, which is flat month on month. If the impact of equity incentive expenses is added back, the net profit per ton of electrolyte is 15000 yuan / ton +, which is in line with market expectations; Among them, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the raw material, was smoothly transmitted. Due to the shortage of supply of additive VC, the price of 2021q4 remained high. The company has an annual production capacity of 1500 tons of VC. We expect that the overall net profit of 2021q4 can be increased by 50 million yuan +; At the same time, the company’s 2021q4 production capacity of Huizhou 54000 ton solvent project is gradually climbing. We expect to ship 10000 tons + in 2021q4, corresponding to the self supply proportion of about 50%. We expect to increase the net profit by nearly 100 million yuan. We expect the load rate to reach 100% in 2022, and the self supply proportion of solvent will increase to 70% after all are reached, significantly increasing the profit.
Fluorine chemical + capacitor chemicals grew steadily, and semiconductor customers continued to expand. We expect that the net profit of fluorine chemical industry in 2021q4 is about 100 million yuan, flat month on month, which is an important profit source of the company. We expect that the revenue growth of fluorine chemical industry in 2021 can still maintain 30-40%, contributing more than 350 million yuan to the net profit. As a leader in China, the capacitor business company has steadily increased its sales volume, with a gross profit margin of nearly 40% and a high profit level. We expect the net profit to exceed 100 million yuan in 2021. The company’s semiconductor chemical business is in the introduction period, with sufficient customer reserves and stable delivery to leading customers. We expect that the company’s semiconductor business is expected to double in 2021, contributing a net profit of about 20 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in view of the continuous high outlook of the industry, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 1.309/20.05/2721 billion (originally expected to be RMB 1.350/18.99/2459 billion), an increase of 153% / 53% / 36%, and the corresponding PE is 30 / 20 / 14x. We give 30xpe for 22 years, the target price is RMB 146, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: intensified competition, price fluctuation of raw materials and supermarket expectation
