\u3000\u3000 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833)
Key investment points
The high growth on the revenue side exceeded our expectations. On January 20, 2022, the company released the performance forecast. The company expects the operating revenue to reach 19.899-21.373 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 35% – 45% (21% – 26% compared with the two-year compound growth rate in 2019); The central bank was RMB 20.636 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, 23% compared with the two-year compound growth rate in 2019. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.640-2.846 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 28% – 38% (20% – 24% compared with the two-year compound growth rate in 2019); The central bank was 2.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, 22% compared with the two-year compound growth rate in 2019; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit is RMB 2.477-2.671 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 28% – 38% (21% – 26% compared with the two-year compound growth rate in 2019); The central bank was RMB 2.574 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, 24% compared with the two-year compound growth rate in 2019.
The corresponding revenue in 2021q4 is 5.497-6.971 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 527-733 million yuan. According to the calculation of performance forecast, the company’s operating revenue in 2021q4 was RMB 5.497-6.971 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% – 39%, a compound increase of 17% – 32% over the two years of 2019q4; The central bank was RMB 6.234 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 24%, 25% compared with the two-year compound growth rate of 2019q4; The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 527-733 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 14% – + 20%, a compound increase of 7% – 26% over the two years of 2019q4; The central bank was 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3%, 17% compared with the two-year compound growth rate of 2019q4; The company’s net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021q4 was 463-657 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 15% – + 20%, a compound increase of 9% – 30% over the two years of 2019q4; The central bank was 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2%, 20% compared with the two-year compound growth rate of 2019q4.
The company’s revenue growth in 2021q4 is beautiful, and the performance of the company is steadily increased by the decoration of large homes. In 2021q4, the company maintained a high income growth rate. At the same time, under the background of continuous growth of raw material costs, its profitability was relatively stable. As an industry leader, the company further consolidated its terminal competitive advantage. In 2021, the company’s packaging channel achieved brilliant performance. In 2021q1-3, the company’s packaging channel revenue was 1.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 95.09%, which became the main driving force for the company’s rapid development in 2021. The company first laid out the whole customization mode, organically integrated the home categories, and constantly enriched the connotation of the company’s big home strategy. The integrated sales mode of customized core + Accessories + door wall system creates a one-stop overall home space solution. We are optimistic that the decoration channel will continue to drive the company’s performance growth in large quantities in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company’s performance is beautiful, the growth rate of revenue side is higher than our expectations, and the growth rate of profit side is in line with our expectations. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.72 billion, RMB 3.26 billion and RMB 3.86 billion respectively, corresponding to pe33, 28 and 23x. The company has a solid leading position in the customization industry, obvious advantages in traditional distribution channels, rapid growth in bulk channels, leading its peers in the layout of packaged channels, and maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the competition in the customization industry intensifies, the cost rises rapidly, the channel expansion is less than expected, and the decline of bargaining power leads to the decline of profitability, etc
