\u3000\u3000 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833)
Event: the company expects a revenue of 19.899 ~ 21.373 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 35% ~ + 45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.640 ~ 2.846 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 28% ~ + 38%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.477 billion to RMB 2.671 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 28% ~ + 38%. Among them, Q4 revenue was 5.497 ~ 6.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10% ~ + 39%; Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company was 527 ~ 733 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 14% ~ + 20%; Q4 deducted non net profit of 463 million yuan to 657 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 15% ~ + 20%.
The big home strategy promotes revenue growth, and the profit is affected by raw materials, which is under short-term pressure. The company’s Q4 revenue growth slightly exceeded expectations. Under the background that the retail sales of furniture only increased slightly year-on-year, the company continued to promote the retail and packaged large home strategy, continuously developed categories and gradually increased the customer unit price, so that the company achieved a revenue growth rate higher than that of the industry. From the perspective of splitting, we speculate that the rapid growth of wardrobe is the main source of income growth; Cabinets maintained steady growth; In addition, wooden door bathroom and other new products are growing rapidly. In the future, we will continue to be optimistic about the mutual promotion between the company’s channel innovation and category expansion, so as to achieve a development speed higher than that of the industry. The price of Q4 raw materials has further increased, and the gross profit margin of superimposed bulk business has decreased due to intensified competition this year. The profit side of the company is under pressure under the high base. Considering the strong cost control ability of the company, Q4 profit side is expected to achieve a slight increase. In the face of the rising price of raw materials, as a leader in the industry, the company is expected to increase prices and control costs more smoothly by virtue of its brand strength, so as to maintain a profit level better than that of the industry.
The advantages of retail channels are obvious, and the risks of bulk business are controllable. In the traditional retail business, the company has solid advantages, the largest number of outlets in the industry, and the dealer team is proactive. At the same time, the company grasps the industry wind direction and vigorously develops the packaged mode and bulk business. At present, the whole package has entered the fast lane of development. As of November 5, the company’s whole package order receiving performance was RMB 2 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 104%, leading the industry. The bulk business scale ranks first in the industry and still maintains a steady and high collection capacity. With the improvement of the credit risk of the real estate industry, the company is expected to strengthen the provision of accounts receivable. However, considering the scattered customer structure and good credit, the overall risk is controllable. We believe that the company has high production efficiency, strong cost control and outstanding marketing ability, and can continue to maintain the first mover leading advantage in channel reform, so as to achieve healthy and better development than the industry.
The category is basically stable, and the boundary expansion opens up space. In terms of cabinets, the company promotes the whole kitchen customization mode, maintains the steady growth of cabinets, and has a stable first position in the industry. The wardrobe continues to maintain high growth through the development of whole house customization. Under the integrated sales mode of cabinet + Accessories + door wall system, the joint rate of wooden doors and other accessories continues to increase, and the income increases rapidly. The development of packaged and bulk channels has also driven the growth of bathroom and wooden door revenue. At the same time, the company continued to expand the categories of metal doors and windows, main and auxiliary decoration materials, and incorporated software and home appliance brand products into its own sales system through cooperation, so that the big home system gradually took shape. Based on the basic sector of cabinets, wardrobe and other categories, the company continues to drive the development of other categories, expand the category boundary, and has a broad development space in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we are optimistic that the company can rely on the advantages of traditional distribution channels and continue to maintain the first mover advantage in new channels such as assembly; Based on the superior category of cabinets and wardrobe, it continues to drive the rapid development of other categories and broaden the category boundary. Channel innovation and category expansion promote each other, promote the continuous growth of the company and move towards “one unified house”. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2757 million, RMB 3356 million and RMB 4062 million respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 453 million, RMB 551 million and RMB 667 million respectively. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 32.59, 26.77 and 22.12 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, and the price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations.
