Today (January 20), A-Shares had many twists and turns, the shock adjustment trend was difficult, and the decline of small cap stocks was heavy. On the disk, industries such as insurance, securities, banking, airports, precious metals and wine making rose against the market, while industries such as games, auto parts, education, plastic products, power grid equipment and communication services led the decline. In terms of theme stocks, the concept of brokerage, chicken, super brand and pork rebounded against the market; Virtual digital man, cloud game, augmented reality, blade battery, metauniverse, power exchange concept, vocational education, etc.
16 securities companies first appeared in the sector last year or ushered in the best configuration time point?
On January 20, the securities sector made an upward attack, Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) rose by the limit, and many stocks such as China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) led the increase. As of January 19, a total of 16 securities companies have issued performance forecasts or unaudited financial statements of the parent company for 2021. According to the statistics of the securities times, the performance of most of the 16 securities companies that have disclosed their performance has increased, especially the head securities company Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , which continues to be the “first brother of the securities industry” with a record high net profit data of 23 billion yuan, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) has become the “dark horse” with the largest performance in 2021, with the highest net profit growth rate of 437%.
According to the Securities Daily, for the market opportunities of listed companies of securities companies, Wei Tao, director of the Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) Research Institute, said: “after two weeks of adjustment, the overall price to book ratio of the securities sector is 1.61 times, lower than the average level in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, the roe level of securities companies has increased steadily. The mismatch between sector valuation and performance growth brings left allocation opportunities.”
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that when the transaction volume of brokerage shares accounts for less than 2% of the whole market, that is, when the whole market is in a low allocation state to the brokerage sector, if there is liquidity and policy stimulus, the allocation proportion may rise from 2% to 8% ~ 10%. At present, the allocation of brokerage stocks in the market is less than 2%. On the one hand, it is waiting for the central economic work conference to send a signal of steady growth. On the other hand, it is waiting for the clearing of risks in the real estate sector. Combined with the recent favorable policies, the agency believes that now is indeed a very good time to allocate the brokerage sector.
the concept of digital currency rose Shenzhen Ysstech Info-Tech Co.Ltd(300377) “20cm” limit Synthesis Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300479) and so on
The concept of digital currency rose intraday on the 20th, Shenzhen Ysstech Info-Tech Co.Ltd(300377) “20cm” limit, Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Hyunion Holding Co.Ltd(002537) “10cm” limit, Synthesis Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300479) , Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , Xgd Inc(300130) and other gains were higher.
On the news side, on January 19, 2022, the people’s Bank of China held a meeting of the leading group for payment service environment construction of Beijing Winter Olympic Games and a video conference of the digital RMB Beijing Winter Olympic Games scene pilot working group. The meeting informed the latest progress in the construction of payment service environment for 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games and winter Paralympic Games and the pilot work of digital RMB Beijing Winter Olympic Games, and deployed the key work of the final sprint stage and game time service guarantee.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that after the promotion of the Winter Olympic Games, the digital RMB will be further familiar to the market, and its industrial chain enterprises and traditional banking industry will benefit from it. On the one hand, digital RMB hardware equipment manufacturers will benefit from the market opportunities brought by digital RMB Hard Wallet, while software developers will benefit from the business growth brought by the upgrading of banking systems outside China. On the other hand, the cross-border application of digital RMB will benefit the traditional banking business through “spillover effect”, with retail payment, foreign currency exchange and cross-border remittance bearing the brunt.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that in combination with the current scenario expansion process of the central bank, we should focus on the head bank IT manufacturers at this stage, which has both the certainty of bank side it transformation and the imagination space of scenario operation. We mainly recommend Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) , and other beneficiary manufacturers include Tansun Technology Co.Ltd(300872) , Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , Global Infotech Co.Ltd(300465) . In addition, financial equipment manufacturers will also usher in large-scale transformation opportunities, Urovo Technology Co.Ltd(300531) , Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) , Xgd Inc(300130) , Lakala Payment Co.Ltd(300773) , Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) are expected to benefit.
the pig food ratio fell into the three-level early warning range again, and a new round of pig cycle may start in the second quarter?
On January 20, the pork sector led the increase, Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) limit, Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) and so on. In terms of news, the national development and Reform Commission released monitoring data on the 17th. From January 10 to 14, the national average pig grain price ratio was 5.75:1, entering the three-level early warning range of excessive decline set in the plan for improving the government’s pork reserve regulation mechanism and ensuring supply and price stability in the pork market.
In terms of funds, recently, northbound funds began to layout pork concept stocks. Statistics show that up to now, 23 pork concept stocks have been held by northbound funds, and 12 concept stocks have been sought after by northbound funds since the new year, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) and other three concept stocks have been increased by more than ten million northbound funds during the period, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Longda food, Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Luoniushan Co.Ltd(000735) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.Ltd(605296) Nine concept stocks such as Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) were also favored by northbound funds.
For the investment opportunities in the pork sector, AVIC Securities pointed out that the share price of the pig sector will maintain a certain range of volatility. Considering the general trend of large-scale pig breeding and the long-term configuration attribute of mandatory consumption, it is suggested to layout the high-quality targets of the pig sector and seize the opportunity of trading on the left.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that in terms of time, the price inflection point of this round of pig cycle is expected to be from April to June 2022, and the time window continues to approach; From the perspective of space, the cumulative removal rate of fertile sows has reached about 7%. It is expected to accelerate the removal rate under low pig prices in the first quarter of 2022, and the cumulative removal rate is expected to reach more than 12% by the end of the first quarter of 2022. Societe Generale research also pointed out that the current pig cycle has been 44 months since it was opened in May 2018, which is very close to the typical length of the past pig cycle. From this point of view, a new round of pig cycle may start in the second quarter of 2022.
the maximum pre increase is 20 times! Covid-19 testing products are in short supply, and the performance of many companies increased significantly in 2021
As of the press time of January 19, seven listed companies in the A-share covid-19 pneumonia detection sector had disclosed the performance forecast for 2021.
Among them, the performance of four companies increased by more than 100%, with a maximum pre increase of 1996.97%.
According to the data, in December 2021, the detection volume of covid-19 in major European countries reached 140 million, a record high, with a month on month growth rate of about 40%; The detection volume of covid-19 in the United States reached 52.38 million people, close to an all-time high (subject to supply to some extent), with a month on month growth rate of about 30%.
Anxin securities expects that the detection amount of covid-19 will continue to be at an all-time high. The demand for covid-19 test kit in the United States has expanded rapidly in the short term, there is an obvious gap at the supply end, and there is a shortage of goods in many places. Considering that the United States is currently the market with the largest covid-19 detection increment in the world, Abbott and other local brands are out of stock, and few Chinese manufacturers have been approved by FDA (EUA), Chinese manufacturers that have been approved or will be approved in the United States are expected to obtain considerable performance flexibility.
a sector of “prefabricated vegetables” is still in the cultivation period
Recently, due to the repeated covid-19 epidemic, it is inconvenient for people to go shopping. A sector of “prefabricated vegetables” has heated the capital market, the share prices of relevant concept stocks have soared, and some stocks have even attracted the attention of regulators. On January 18 and 19, most concept stocks began to callback.
According to the press survey, prefabricated dishes are not new, but are essentially collectively known for years of canned food, cooked food, frozen frozen foods and refrigerated fast food dishes that Kwai Chai started in recent years. Despite the rapid growth of the frozen and cold collection market in the industry in recent years, the whole prefabricated vegetable market is still in the cultivation period, and the industry threshold is low, there are many and miscellaneous enterprises, the competition is very fierce, and the gross profit margin of subdivided head enterprises is not high, generally below 30%. In addition, people in the industry generally believe that at present and in the future, prefabricated dishes will mainly face the b-end enterprise market, which is difficult to become a normal necessity for the families of C-end consumers.
The research report points out that the current market stock of prefabricated vegetables is about 300 billion yuan, accounting for less than 10% of the total food materials. If the compound growth rate of 20% per year is estimated, China’s Prefabricated vegetable market can grow into a trillion yuan market in the next 6-7 years. If we refer to the Japanese market with a similar diet structure to China, and the proportion of prefabricated dishes reaches more than 60%, the scale of China’s Prefabricated dish market will reach more than 3 trillion yuan in the mature period, and there is huge development space.
high performance increase valuation bottom “bull market flag bearer” buy something suddenly? The fund manager suggested
As the wind vane of the stock market, the brokerage index has decreased by 4.48% in the past six years, significantly underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen index in the same period. In contrast, individual stocks in this sector have reported good results in recent three years, so the valuation advantage has gradually become prominent. According to the data, the roe of securities companies has been close to the level of previous bull market (2015-2016), but its valuation is still at the bottom quarter of history. At the time of the gradual decline of high-priced stocks after the year, funds also began to bargain hunting in the brokerage sector. A brokerage ETF has achieved net subscription of funds for 10 consecutive trading days.
Resumption of trading on July 9 last year, the central bank announced a comprehensive reduction in the reserve requirement. Since then, the securities companies Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) with high “wealth ratio” have doubled their share prices in two months since the limit was raised on the first day; Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) increased by nearly 80% in two months; China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) the growth rate exceeded 50% in two months, and the brokerage index increased by nearly 20% driven by wealth management brokers. China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that the macro liquidity continues to be loose, which is conducive to the valuation repair of securities companies. At present, due to the lack of hot spots in the market, the valuation of securities companies has dropped, the valuation is at a historically low level, and the correction of high “wealth ratio” securities companies has been obvious since the beginning of the year. As a typical liquidity sensitive sector, the interest rate cut will further enhance the action energy on the sector, and securities companies have the opportunity to perform continuously.
