Today (January 20), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. After the general rise of the three major stock indexes of A-Shares in the morning, they fell into adjustment again, and the large financial stocks came into force near the afternoon. Led the stock index to turn red again. Unfortunately, the counter offensive was limited, the stock index fell again, and finally the three major indexes closed down.
In this regard, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that the current asset prices have partially fulfilled the expectations of easing, the response of the A-share market to the implementation of subsequent easing policies may be relatively "calm", and the market "structural bull" trend remains unchanged. It is suggested to focus on undervalued blue chip targets in the configuration.
At the same time, Wanlian Securities pointed out that first, in the near future, industry allocation opportunities with annual performance forecasts exceeding expectations can be explored; Second, under the favorable interest rate cut, continue to pay attention to the undervalued banks and securities companies; Third, the logic of "steady growth" remains unchanged. Under the goal of carbon neutrality, green infrastructure in the infrastructure field is expected to accelerate the expansion, and UHV, 5g and other fields also deserve continued attention.
sector:
I. brokerage concept
Open source securities mentioned that the landing of interest rate cut is conducive to the improvement of risk appetite. It is the first to promote the big wealth management track and be optimistic about the securities companies with undervalued value. (1) After the confirmation of broad credit, the market risk appetite is expected to be significantly improved. The growth attribute of the big wealth management track has improved the beta elasticity. At present, the valuation has a safety margin. After deducting the net assets of non big wealth management business, the PE valuation corresponding to the profits of the big wealth management line is 19 / 15 times in 2021 / 2022 respectively. After the confirmation of profit growth, the valuation will be revised.
(2) the allotment of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) shares by the head securities firm is nearly completed, and the refinancing boots are on the ground. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is + 54.2% year-on-year, and roe12.2% 0%, refinancing is expected to optimize the company's asset structure; The comprehensive registration system reform is good for head securities companies. There is broad space for capital intermediary businesses such as derivatives, securities lending and market making. The growth of fee based business is good, and the roe of head securities companies is expected to rise further. At present, the valuation of head securities companies is at the low point of nearly three years, and they are optimistic about the valuation repair of head securities companies.
In addition, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that policies are frequent and are optimistic about the long-term development of the securities sector. ① Recently, a series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center is rising: the wealth management business continues to grow, and channels, products and investment advisers benefit deeply; The scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, the superposition system has been continuously standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increments. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
AVIC Securities believes that in the long run, there are multiple positive factors with strong certainty in the securities sector: first, there is a high probability of performance. The annual report performance in 2021 will be announced one after another. From the three quarterly reports, the performance of public funds, market trading volume, the scale of funds raised by investment banks and other market performance, most listed securities companies have a high probability of achieving high growth in 2021. At present, the four securities companies that have announced the performance forecast have achieved significant performance growth.
Second, the main line of "steady growth" is clear. For China's economic development situation in 2022, the central bank, the Ministry of finance, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments will focus on "steady growth", and it is expected that the "steady growth" policy will continue to work in the future. Therefore, we expect that with the support of stable growth policy, the US interest rate increase will not have much impact on China's liquidity environment in the short term.
Third, the wealth management track has a long slope and thick snow, which is still an important focus of the industry in the future. In 2022, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , Nanjing Securities Co.Ltd(601990) and Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) have successively passed the qualification of fund investment advisory business exhibition. At present, 17 securities companies have conducted fund investment advisory business exhibition. To sum up, we believe that the current negative factors have limited impact on the long-term growth of the securities sector, so we are not afraid of short-term disturbance.
II. medical devices
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that the Omicron strain spread rapidly, the global epidemic continued to spread, and the epidemic in China showed a local outbreak. The collective rise of listed companies related to covid-19 testing led to a sharp rise in the in vitro diagnosis sector. Medical equipment, blood products and medical R & D outsourcing also increased significantly, while vaccines, offline pharmacies and hospitals fell. In case of repeated outbreaks, we suggest paying attention to anti epidemic related beneficiary companies such as detection.
AVIC securities mentioned that in the long run, the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low valuation. With the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with relatively high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to focus on the innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices Layout of medical consumption terminals and biological products, while mining second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation: 1) innovative drugs and innovative drug industry chain, including comprehensive and specialized innovative drug enterprises and CXO industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) and Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) ; 2) It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) and Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) as the leader of high-end medical devices with outstanding import substitution ability; 3) For medical consumption terminals benefiting from increased market concentration, it is recommended to pay attention to Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) and Dian Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(300244) ; 4) Biological product enterprises with scarcity and consumption attributes include Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) - U and Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) .
Three. Baijiu
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that for Baijiu enterprises, the Spring Festival accounts for a relatively high proportion of annual sales (about 40%), and the strictness of epidemic prevention and control will lead to the lack of consumption scenes in some provinces during the Spring Festival, thus affecting their Spring Festival sales. Henan has always been a major Baijiu consumption province. The national famous liquor and local strong brands are all in this layout. Under the influence of the epidemic, some of the liquor companies with a higher market share in Henan will be affected. However, other consumption provinces such as Sichuan, Anhui and Jiangsu are less affected by the epidemic. Baijiu enterprises are expected to differentiate in the first quarter. However, the impact of outbreaks in Henan and other markets on the industry as a whole is limited. At present, the fundamentals of the sector are still stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market dynamic sales will continue to improve; The recent sector correction also makes some targets enter the value layout range. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , regional sub high-end leaders (such as Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) ) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) .
From monthly data, Bohai Securities said that Baijiu still runs in the boom cycle and the price cycle of high-end Baijiu will be extended due to price control, and the fine products of public products have opened the price raising cycle.
On the sector side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of mass products, with the opening of the price increase cycle, the upstream cost pressure may be relieved in the second half of the year. At present, the beer sector is still the one with a relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission, followed by dairy products. The rise of raw milk in the upstream of dairy products has tended to ease. On the basis of good demand and early price increase, the performance is expected to accelerate the release. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Guosheng securities mentioned that the Spring Festival peak sales season is coming, famous liquor enterprises receive good payment, the peak season performance in terms of price is stable without obvious fluctuation, and some areas at the mobile sales end are still repeatedly affected by the epidemic. After the epidemic, terminal stores generally adopt the way of reducing inventory and increasing purchase frequency, and the real needs of consumers and terminal mobile sales still need to be observed, After new year's day, the delivery of terminal goods is accelerated, and the channel inventory of most famous liquor enterprises is benign. It is expected that the Spring Festival is still expected to achieve benign growth.
Investment recommendations, Baijiu, the Spring Festival peak wine enterprises dynamic marketing benign, the current sector valuation regression value allocation interval, the first real estate wine sector, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and other real estate wine company performance is expected to accelerate upward, high-end liquor consumer group continued expansion, time for space, optimistic about Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Medium and long term development of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) .
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