A senior investor said frankly: I have worked for several years and have never encountered today's market!
Strange to say, in the morning of January 20, the central bank cut LPR one-year and five-year interest rates, which should be in line with market expectations. However, this did not bring too much long momentum to the A-share market, and there was a diving market in the intraday trading. At the level of individual stocks, it was even bleak. As of the closing, more than 3800 stocks fell, only 745 stocks rose, and the three major stock indexes closed lower.
Comparatively speaking, although the awesome performance of US stocks overnight, the Asia Pacific market is very powerful today. The Hong Kong market soared across the board, with the Hang Seng Index and the state-owned enterprise index rising by more than 3%, and the Hang Seng technology index exceeding 4%. Japan and South Korea stock markets closed up more than 1%. MSCI Asia Pacific stock index once rose more than 1%. Before the central bank's heavy positive stimulus, after the external market set off the atmosphere, A-Shares did not give face at all. What is the reason?
some securities traders said that it was reported from the market that from January 1 to 10 this year, bank credit was generally not ideal. Corporate loans from joint-stock banks increased by 53 billion, less than 1 / 3 of the same period last year; Retail sales were only half that of the same period last year. This may have an impact on the confidence of institutional investors. However, more paradoxically, bank stocks are the main force to protect the market today. So, who is the black hand of shorting?
never encountered market
At noon today, some investors said on the Internet that they had never encountered such a market. While the United States raises interest rates, China cuts interest rates; While foreign investors buy angrily, domestic investors sell wildly on the other side.
That's true. Today's A-shares are indeed some surprises. From the index level, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3555.06 points, down 0.09%; Shenzhen composite index reported 14198.3 points, down 0.06%; Gem index reported 3065.99 points, down 0.32%; The decline of the three major stock indexes is not large, but individual stocks have suffered a lot. A total of more than 3800 stocks fell in the two cities, only 745 stocks rose, the number of drop limits reached 30, and the rise limit was only 49. More than 2100 stocks fell by more than 3%, and the money loss effect is very obvious.
Let's look at an environment facing the market. Early this morning, the central bank cut interest rates, reducing one-year LPR by 10bp to 3.7% and five-year LPR by 5bp to 4.6%. By rights, this is a big positive. Moreover, judging from the reaction of Hong Kong stocks, it is also quite positive. The Hong Kong market rose almost across the board.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) pointed out that in the medium term, the first quarter is a superposition period before the Fed's interest rate increase, low inflation pressure, high downward pressure on the economy and triggered by credit risk. The central bank's press conference also released a strong easing signal, and there is a possibility of RRR reduction. In terms of interest rate reduction, we should continue to observe, but the window period of interest rate reduction has not been closed, and there is still the possibility of interest rate reduction in the first quarter.
From the periphery market, although the overnight performance of the US stock market is awesome, the Asia Pacific market is more competitive. The Nikkei closed up 1.11% and the Korean stock market closed up 0.72%. The US stock futures index also performed strongly in front of the market, and the US bond yield affecting the stock market trend also fell from a high of 1.9%.
from the perspective of capital, foreign investors are crazy about buying a shares. According to the data, northbound funds accelerated the momentum of entering the market, with a net unilateral purchase of 12.576 billion yuan throughout the day, a new high since December 9 last year, and a net purchase for five consecutive days; Among them, the net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was 7.837 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock connect was 4.74 billion yuan.
In fact, all the real-time environments have obvious warmth, so why is the A-share market still doing so?
a rumor
Many institutions believe that a rumor circulating in the market today may be the main reason to dilute the positive.
This may be a grassroots research. It is said that since January this year, from January to October, bank credit investment is generally not ideal.
First, large state-owned banks were flat year-on-year and increased slightly. Among the four major banks, a major bank increased RMB loans by about 300 billion from January to October, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 50 billion. Among the other three banks, one was basically flat year-on-year, and the other two were generally the same. Postal savings is mainly retail, and the prosperity of credit supply from January to October is higher than that of the four major banks.
Secondly, the credit supply of joint-stock banks is very weak. From January to October, the corporate and retail loans of the top nine national joint-stock banks increased by about 84 billion, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 280 billion. Among them, corporate loans increased by 53 billion, less than 1 / 3 of the same period last year. Corporate loans of a Shanghai Dragon Corporation(600630) bank increased slightly year-on-year, but retail sales were only half of that of the same period last year, and other joint-stock banks were significantly weaker.
Third, the situation of urban commercial banks in economically developed areas is acceptable, but there is great pressure on unlisted small and medium-sized banks. From January to October, listed urban commercial banks in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other developed areas of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai added 70 billion in corporate + retail, a slight increase year-on-year, but retail was relatively weak. The credit of unlisted small and medium-sized banks is greatly dragged down. It is expected that the year-on-year increase from November to December is less than 150 billion, and it is difficult to make a significant improvement in January.
Earlier, the central bank mentioned that it should open the monetary policy toolbox wider to avoid a credit collapse. It may also point to something. However, it is more interesting that under the background of this rumor, the performance of bank stocks is not poor. Today, the bank ETF rose 1.86%, which can be called the "regulator" of the market. Reasonably speaking, the interest rate cut will affect the interest rate spread, but the main contradiction now seems to be not the interest rate spread, but the loan demand. The market may expect that the interest rate cut can stimulate the loan demand. However, the restoration of confidence may take a process. Moreover, this should not be a simple economic problem.
who is the black hand of shorting?
So, who is the black hand of shorting? From the perspective of the falling structure, the smashing of fund heavy positions may be an important reason affecting market sentiment.
From the perspective of individual stocks affecting the index, PetroChina, poly, China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) and other components of the Shanghai index are all fund heavy positions; The Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Autek China Inc(300595) , Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Jafron Biomedical Co.Ltd(300529) and other shares of Shenzhen composite index are institutional heavy positions. The decline of these stocks contributed greatly to the index and popularity. Of course, some hot money stocks were also smashed, but these stocks made little contribution to the index. In addition, the total leader Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) still rose by the limit, so the impact of hot money tickets on market sentiment is not great.
Some institutional sources said that today, they saw a large-scale position adjustment of institutions for the first time, and the direction of position adjustment is big blue chip. Some institutions can no longer afford to kill. This may also be a major reason for the decline of heavy positions of funds in the early stage. The performance of big blue chips is indeed the same. Today, the SSE 50 rose by more than 1.4%.
So, how will the follow-up market deduce? Judging from the current situation, the popularity of the market is a little overwhelmed. If it continues, there will be a certain stampede risk in the market. Because it continues to fall, the financing sector is bound to be impacted. Therefore, the market needs some underpinning force to slow down the impact of the market.
On the other hand, from the direction of interest rate, the capital price this year should be cheaper and cheaper. In theory, this is conducive to the interpretation of growth stocks. However, from the perspective of the analytical framework, since the market's expectation of the economy is not particularly optimistic, the valuation basis of growth stocks is not solid. Overall, it still takes time to change market expectations. However, from a historical point of view, foreign capital has always been the leader. Whether there will be a better result in the follow-up, let's wait and see.
future analysis
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Yuanda: can the weak pattern of buying from the north be reversed at the time of emotional freezing?
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