Main points:
Market events
On January 20, 2022, the LPR quotation was announced: the one-year LPR quotation was 3.70%, which continued the open market operation and MLF interest rate reduction of this month, with a reduction of 10bp; The five-year LPR quotation is 4.60%, down 5bp from the previous month, and it is also the first reduction since April 2020.
Loose credit interest rates helped stabilize growth, and the reduction of long-term interest rates helped stabilize the real estate market
The LPR reduction will have the following impact on the current economy: ① credit will stimulate the financing demand of the real economy, and the steady growth policy will go to the next city. This is a key implementation measure recently required by the central bank to "enhance the stability of total credit growth and guide financial institutions to effectively expand credit". The decline of interest rate will stimulate the financing demand of the real economy and further achieve the effect of credit relief, so as to help stabilize economic growth. Stimulated by the reduction of interest rates, it is expected that RMB credit is expected to be more than 8 trillion in the first quarter, a significant increase over 7.67 trillion in the same period last year. ② The demand side welcomes the marginal relaxation to alleviate the downward pressure of the real estate market boom. At the same time, the reduction and the reduction range at this time point are smaller, which also releases the signal of "no speculation in real estate". On the one hand, the five-year LPR reduction is equivalent to the reduction of the incremental mortgage interest rate, which is the further easing of the demand side after the marginal easing of the real estate financing side. Stabilizing the demand for commercial housing will help alleviate the downward pressure of the current round of real estate boom, thus reducing the downward pressure on the economy, which is the embodiment of the requirement of stable growth in the real estate industry; On the other hand, it should be noted that reducing the five-year LPR is not equal to the policy stimulus of the real estate market, but only the marginal easing of the real estate market policy. First, the reduction range of the five-year LPR is less than that of the one-year LPR, and second, it is reflected in the choice of reducing the LPR in January rather than following the one-year LPR in December 2021, More importantly, considering that it is only beneficial to the demand for new housing loans in 2022 and will not affect the interest rate of stock housing loans, according to the requirements, the adjustment of residents' stock housing loan interest rate is generally January 1. Therefore, staggering the adjustment period of stock housing loan interest rate also conveys the policy insistence of "no speculation in real estate" and healthy development of the real estate industry to a certain extent.
Steady growth signals are constantly confirmed, policies are continuously implemented, and the logic of restless market is further strengthened
The LPR reduction continues the front-end open market operation and the easing of MLF interest rate reduction. In essence, it is the decision-making level's renewed force for steady economic growth. With the continuous confirmation of steady growth signals, we can still expect the support policy to continue to be launched in the future. First, the development of fiscal policy is expected to accelerate. The national Standing Committee strongly urges the issuance and use of local government special bonds to form the physical workload, the national development and Reform Commission to speed up the approval of major social projects, local governments to step up the implementation of infrastructure projects, the excess continuation of MLF and the reduction of policy interest rates. Under the background, the issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate and intensify. Second, there is still room for monetary policy. In order to cope with the increase in the issuance of government bonds, it is expected that there will be a comprehensive RRR reduction in the follow-up, and the time point is probably in the middle of February; MLF also has room to continue to expand its operation. The amount due in February and March is only 200 billion and 100 billion respectively; The large-scale operation of the open market will continue until the Spring Festival, and it is expected to expand to 14 days in the follow-up, so there is no worry about short-term liquidity. Monetary policy and liquidity are in a more positive time window. In addition, with the continuous efforts of steady growth measures, economic growth in 2022q1 is expected to improve marginally and exceed market expectations. The continuous confirmation of the steady growth policy and the marginal economic expectation will help the interpretation of the restless market in spring.
The logic of growth and steady growth was further strengthened, and the risk appetite of the short-term financial sector was improved
In the restless market in spring, we pay attention to four main investment lines: first, the policy interest rate mlf-lpr chain interest rate cut means that monetary policy and liquidity environment are loosely supported, and the growth line with high valuation flexibility is expected to benefit more. In addition, the growth sector has gradually stabilized after recent adjustment, and the sex price ratio has increased, The third stage of growth style is also expected to be fully interpreted under the restless market in spring. Focus on three subdivided directions: ① green power, photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, new energy and new energy vehicle chain related to "double carbon"; ② The middle and upper reaches of semiconductors and national defense industry in the boom direction; ③ Dilemma inversion superposition growth diffusion, such as computers. Second, with the intensive implementation of policies, the allocation opportunities of the main line of steady growth have become prominent. Focus on two subdivisions: ① power for infrastructure construction, such as power grid construction, power grid operation, transmission and distribution, UHV, etc; ② The traditional direction of capital construction, such as building materials, steel, etc. Third, the reduction of LPR will have a catalytic effect on the financial market in the short term and increase the attention, such as securities companies, real estate, etc. Fourth, pay attention to the consumer sector dominated by price rise, and mainly look for opportunities along the main line of price rise. The theme investment direction focuses on digital currency and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Risk tips
The development of Omicron mutant strain exceeded expectations; There is a deviation in China's economic forecast; China's policy tightening exceeded expectations; Sino US relations deteriorated more than expected
