Core content:
Omicron entered Beijing, and the epidemic measures affected the economic operation. On January 15, Beijing released information that a new case of covid-19 epidemic in Beijing was infected with mutant Omicron virus. As of January 15, covid-19 virus cases had occurred in 19 provinces and autonomous regions in China, of which the epidemic situation was more serious in Shaanxi, Henan, Tianjin and Zhejiang. At this stage, the GDP of the four provinces, cities and autonomous regions with the most serious epidemic situation accounts for 15.8% of the national GDP, and Beijing accounts for 19.4% of the national GDP. Strict epidemic prevention measures will affect China's GDP growth. The uncertainty of the epidemic situation may seriously affect the consumption in the first quarter, especially the consumption in the Spring Festival, and the consumption growth is facing a severe test.
The national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future, which put forward 10 work measures. For the prevention and control of covid-19 epidemic, the national development and Reform Commission proposed to adhere to the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, stabilize and expand consumption, and minimize the impact on people's production and life. At the same time, it puts forward some measures to promote consumption, such as exchanging old household appliances for new ones and sending new energy vehicles to the countryside.
The Beijing government work report has been issued. The GDP growth rate in 2022 is more than 5%. The work objectives of the Beijing municipal government are basically consistent with the national objectives. Provinces and cities across the country have also successively issued the economic work objectives for 2022. From the current situation, they are optimistic about the economic growth in 2022.
The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates is strong, and the pace of table contraction needs to be determined. Powell spoke at the hearing. Powell spoke more gently about table contraction than the minutes of the December meeting. The statement on the table contraction proves that the Fed has not reached a consensus on the specific rhythm of the table contraction, and the concern about the smoothness of the yield curve after raising interest rates may be an important reason. With the spread of Omicron epidemic, the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma between economic recovery and inflation control. The Federal Reserve still points to a faster interest rate increase, and the rhythm of table contraction is still uncertain.
The market interest rate has been differentiated, and the short-term liquidity is relatively stable this week. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market liquidity is tight, and the pressure on liquidity caused by enterprise tax payment, advance of government special debt, cash demand and "good start" of credit will be in the future. Bond yields declined as a whole. The central bank is expected to provide ample liquidity because of the capital demand in January. It does not rule out the possibility of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, which is good for the bond market.
Prices fell slightly, and pork prices and vegetable prices both fell. The weather has also warmed up, and the price of vegetables has fallen. Pork prices fell temporarily. China's price pressure has weakened.
The measures to stabilize growth have slowly taken effect, commodity prices have rebounded slightly, and international oil prices continue to rise. Although the impact of the epidemic is still expanding, the hospitalization and mortality of new varieties are not high, and the market is expected to have better demand. The operating rate of blast furnace declined, and the production capacity was low before the Winter Olympic Games. The social inventory of high steel increased, but the steady growth measures began to take effect. Commodity prices have rebounded, responding to steady growth in the future.
