Report summary:
From the downstream high-frequency data, the transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded, and the transaction area of commercial housing in all line cities rebounded. The number and area of commercial housing transactions in the top ten cities rebounded sharply. The demand for downstream real estate is beginning to pick up. The land supply area of 100 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline significantly, the land transaction area of the first and second tier cities fell significantly, and the land transaction area of the third tier cities rose. The transaction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline significantly, and the transaction area of second and third tier land fell significantly. The average daily retail and wholesale sales of passenger car market fell. According to the Ministry of industry and information technology, in 2021, China’s automobile production and sales completed 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively, ending the downward trend for three consecutive years. According to the data of China Automobile Association, China’s annual automobile export exceeded 2 million for the first time in 2021, realizing the breakthrough of hovering around 1 million for many years. It is expected that the strong demand for automobiles will continue to the first quarter of 2022. The Nanhua Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) index continued to rise slightly. The wholesale prices of pork and mutton fell, while the wholesale prices of beef rose. The wholesale price of eggs continued to decline slightly, and the wholesale price of white striped chicken rebounded. Focus on monitoring the continuous decline of the average wholesale price of vegetables and the weak upward trend of the average wholesale price of fruits.
From the midstream high-frequency data, the settlement price of rebar futures continued to rebound, the rebar inventory of major construction steel production enterprises continued to decline, and the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace increased significantly. The settlement prices of hot-rolled coil and wire rod futures continued to rebound, and the inventory increased one after another. The operating rate of coking enterprises with various capacity continued to rise. The inventory of low energy coking enterprises fell. Nanhua PTA index continued to rise, PTA operating rate continued to fall, and the settlement prices of methanol and polypropylene futures continued to rebound. The national cement price index continued the downward trend, and the cement price in East China, Southwest China and Central South China decreased significantly. The settlement price of glass futures rebounded sharply. The market prices of light soda ash and heavy soda ash continued to decline sharply. The settlement price and inventory of pulp futures continued to rise.
From the upstream high-frequency data, CRB spot index, RJ / CRB commodity price index continued to rise, and Nanhua industrial products index continued to rebound. OPEC package crude oil price and WTI crude oil futures settlement price rose sharply. LME nonferrous metal prices rise more and fall less, and inventories fall more and rise less. China’s iron ore price index and the Australian market price of iron ore were weak, and the iron ore port inventory increased slightly. The closing price of iron ore futures rose slightly and the turnover fell. Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) the power coal pit price continued to rebound, the closing price of power coal futures fell, the Haibo Intel coal price fell sharply, and the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao fell sharply.
From the high-frequency data of logistics, BDI, BPI, BCI, BSI and BHSI all decreased significantly. China’s export container freight rate index CCFI continued to rise, and the freight rate of European routes increased significantly. China’s coastal bulk cargo freight index fell, and grain freight rates fell sharply. According to the General Administration of customs, the current global epidemic situation fluctuates repeatedly, the external environment becomes more complex, severe and uncertain, the comparative advantage and base effect of China’s economic recovery may be weakened, and the uncertain, unstable and unbalanced factors faced by China’s foreign trade development will increase in 2022. At the same time, we should also see that China’s economy is highly resilient and its long-term fundamentals will not change, and continue to provide strong support for stabilizing foreign trade. With the recovery of overseas economy, it is expected that short-term exports will not be too bad.
From the financial high-frequency data, the US dollar fell sharply against the RMB. The yield at maturity of short-term and medium-term bonds decreased slightly, and the yield at maturity of medium – and long-term bonds fell. According to the data released by the central bank, RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion yuan in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 123.4 billion yuan. In December, M2 increased by 9% year-on-year, the previous value was 8.5%, and the net cash invested in the whole year was 651 billion yuan. In December, the increment of social financing scale was 2.37 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 2.61 trillion yuan; The annual increment of social financing scale was 31.35 trillion yuan, 3.44 trillion yuan less than that of the previous year; At the end of 2021, the stock of social financing scale was 314.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%.
