Key points:
Event:
The actual year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter was 4.0%, the previous value was 4.9%; The actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the whole year was 8.1%, compared with the previous value of 9.8%. In December, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 4.9%, the former value was 5.2%; The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 12.5% year-on-year, with the previous value of 13.7%. In December, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1.7% year-on-year, with the previous value of 3.9%; The cumulative added value of industries above designated size was 9.6% year-on-year, the previous value was 10.1%, the current month was 4.3% year-on-year, and the previous value was 3.8%.
Supply constraints were relaxed and the production side picked up
From the two-year average compound growth rate, the average year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter was 5.2%, which rebounded to a certain extent compared with 4.8% in the third quarter. The quarter on quarter GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was 1.6%, which was significantly higher than that in the third quarter. Since the fourth quarter, with the relaxation of the dual control policies of production and power restriction and energy consumption, the year-on-year and two-year average growth rate of industrial added value have shown an obvious upward trend. By industry, the rebound of manufacturing industrial added value and the continuous upward trend of mining industry in the fourth quarter are the main support for the overall recovery of industrial added value in the fourth quarter.
Real estate continued to decline, and infrastructure has not yet started
From the perspective of investment structure, manufacturing investment, real estate investment and infrastructure investment show different trends. Although the three showed a downward trend in terms of cumulative year-on-year growth, excluding the base effect, the two-year average growth showed a structural differentiation of rising manufacturing investment, flat infrastructure investment and falling real estate investment. On a year-on-year basis, the growth rate of new construction and housing sales area remained in a double-digit negative growth trend, and the growth rate of real estate investment in the first quarter was still under pressure.
Repeated epidemics and weak consumption
In December, the social zero growth rate recorded 1.7% year-on-year, 2.2 percentage points lower than the previous value, and the average growth rate in the two years recorded 3.1%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the previous value. The spread of covid-19 pneumonia in winter will inevitably drag down the consumption during the Spring Festival holiday, making the originally weak consumption data decline again. The implementation of the central bank's total easing policy on January 17, that is, reducing the MLF and Omo interest rates by 10bp, with an obvious intention of stabilizing growth in advance. At the same time, it said that "the policy toolbox should be opened wider". It is expected that with the emergence of economic growth pressure in the first quarter, the positive fiscal policy will be implemented accordingly. The further easing rhythm of monetary policy may depend on the follow-up performance of real estate investment, consumption and export.
Risk tips
Overseas policy tightening exceeded expectations; Inflation exceeded expectations; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
