Matters:
The premium data of major listed insurance companies were released in December 2021, the growth rate of life insurance cumulative premium was generally stable, and the property insurance cumulative premium was fully repaired.
Ping An View:
Life insurance business: as of December 2021, the growth rate of accumulated original premium income of life insurance business of major listed insurance companies remained stable: PICC (3.3%) > Taiping (3.0%) > Xinhua (2.5%) > Guoshou (1.2%) > CPIC (0.6%) > Ping An (- 4.1%); In December, the growth rate of original premium income in a single month was different: CPIC (41.9%) > Xinhua (20.4%) > Taiping (0.9%) > Guoshou (- 0.4%) > Ping An (- 5.0%) > PICC (- 9.8%). The differentiation of monthly premium growth is mainly due to the differentiation of business strategies. Specifically, CPIC, Xinhua and Taiping focus on ending in 2021, focusing on savings products; Guoshou, Ping An and PICC are mainly preparing for a good start in 2022, mainly short-term reserves of “good start”. In terms of the total new orders in 2021, CPIC 41.2 billion yuan (YoY + 5.6%), Ping An 135.3 billion yuan (yoy-4.8%), PICC 56.9 billion yuan (yoy-0.9%), including 29 billion yuan (YoY + 28.4%) of new orders for personal insurance of CPIC, 115.4 billion yuan (yoy-2.8%) of new orders for personal business of Ping An, and the overall decline of new orders in the single quarter of 21q2-21q4. Overall, the decline of new orders is wider than that of 21h1, and the structure is corrected. It is expected that NBV will still decline significantly in 2021. The rhythm of “a good start” returns to normal in 2022, which has a great impact on manpower, base and supervision. It is expected that the growth of new orders will be under pressure. After passing the high base in February, the premium may be repaired in March.
Property insurance business: auto insurance premiums recover rapidly. Head insurance companies have the advantages of channel, loss determination and pricing, and will still maintain excess underwriting profits. As of December 2021, the growth rate of cumulative premium income of property insurance business of major listed insurance companies continued to rise: PICC (3.8%) > CPIC (3.4%) > Ping An (- 5.5%). In addition to CPIC, the growth rate of original premium income in a single month has improved significantly: PICC (30.4%) > Ping An (14.2%) > CPIC (7.9%). Since 21q4, the influence of base effect has weakened, and the auto insurance premium has been significantly corrected, driving the growth rate of property insurance premium to rise.
Monetary policy was marginally loose and long-term interest rates fell. As of January 19, 2022, the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds was about 2.79%, down 46.2bps from the end of the previous year; The 750 day moving average is about 3.05%, 19.8ps lower than that at the end of the previous year.
Investment suggestion: since 2021, listed insurance companies have actively transformed, with stricter supervision and standardized industry development. The transformation of life insurance is at the bottom stage. Recently, the margin of real estate policy has eased, but the long-term interest rate has decreased and the fixed income asset allocation has increased. At the same time, the growth of life insurance manpower, new orders and NBV is under great pressure. The superposition of 21 years has a high starting base, and it is difficult to see significant improvement in the short term on the liability side. In the long run, the industry valuation is at the bottom of history, the space for health insurance and endowment insurance is huge, and it has allocation value; In the short term, the margin of monetary policy is loose, and the sector catalytic factors are mainly β Properties. It is recommended to pay attention to the industry leader China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) .
Risk tips: 1) the equity market fluctuates sharply and the credit risk is exposed intensively. 2) After clearing the deficiency, the quality improvement of the agent was less than expected, and the growth of new orders was less than expected. 3) The interest rate is lower than expected, and the allocation of maturing assets and new assets is under pressure.
